2026 Belgian GP Raceday Preview

James Punt landed two winners and a place from three bets in qualifying. Check out his 2026 Belgian GP Raceday tips below.

2026 Belgian GP Raceday

Qualifying saw a +2.49 profit and we now move on to the main event. We had two ante post bets for the GP. One was Gasly to finish in the points, and he starts from 10th today, but his odds have dropped to 2.00. That is on account of him only qualifying 12th, but due to other drivers’ penalties, he gets promoted to 10th. It is expected that those drivers will recover back into the top 10, squeezing Gasly out, but it is a long race and anything can happen.

Our other bet was a 2 pointer on Hadjar to finish in the top six. Of course, the day after the preview was written, Red Bull decided to give Hadjar a brand new power unit, which means he starts from the back of the grid. Aston Martin have given Alonso a new PU as well, and he starts last, elevating Hadjar to the heady heights of 21st. Only fifteen places to make up. You never know, but I guess we caught a cold on that one and it does beg the question, is it worth having any ante post bets?

The Race

Antonelli has dominated the weekend from FP2 onwards. He has dominated, Russell has struggled, always a big chunk of time behind his teammate. The team say that Russell’s car is having deployment problems on the straights and that is where he is losing all his time. It was still good enough for 4^th in qualifying (he starts third) but on a track with five straight mode zones, it will be hard for Russell to make much progress, and defending may be his job today. Antonelli is the 1.45 favourite to win, which is short enough given Mercedes reliability problems.

Max Verstappen got help from Hadjar to get a good tow in his qualifying laps and even that wasn’t enough. He ended up 0.317 seconds behind Antonelli. The Red Bull has had its problems off the line, while Antonelli’s Mercedes has been really fast in sector 1.

The big run down the Kemmel straight is a traditional potential overtake opportunity, with the car behind getting a strong tow, but the Mercedes just looks too quick. Antonelli seems to have gotten over his early season woes off the line. Verstappen also said that the Red Bull is losing out in terms of straight-line speed.

New Power Unit

The other Red Bull of Hadjar starts in 21st with a new power unit. He had good pace on Friday, top 5 pace, and on a track where the fastest cars can make forward progress, Hadjar will be carving through the field to see how far he can get. Hamilton started from the pit lane last year and finished seventh, in 2022 Gasly had a pit lane start and finished ninth, so Hadjar should be making the points, but going all the way to sixth? It seems unlikely. He is alone amongst the big 4 teams’ drivers to have a new set of soft tyres. That gives him more strategic options, which is handy.

Ferrari have been a bit disappointing but theirs has been a season of fluctuating performances. Leclerc was over 0.5s off Antonelli, but with Norris demoted to 13th place with his penalty, Leclerc heads the very close pack of  himself, Russell and Hamilton who are covered by 0.026 seconds.

Positive Leclerc

Leclerc was still quite positive after qualifying but admitted that the track doesn’t really suit the qualities of the Ferrari. However, with both the Red Bull and Russell struggling on the straights, Leclerc should find himself in the mix for a fourth Spa podium in a row.

The same can be said for Hamilton, who made life difficult for himself with a big crash in FP3. The team got his car repaired in time for qualifying, but his sixth place was his lowest of any of the timed sessions.

McLaren had Norris in a creditable 3rd place, but his penalty for a new electronic control unit is a ten-place grid demotion. He had been second in FP2 and FP3, so the car has been surprisingly quick. Piastri has been having a similar problem to Russell and he just hasn’t had the same kind of pace. Norris can fight back from 13th and maybe get a top 6.

Racing Bulls

The Racing Bulls came with an upgrade for only one car and it was decided as to which driver would get it, by offering it to the fastest qualifier at Silverstone. Both the new and old car made it into Q3 for the third race in a row, with Audi’s Bortoleto sandwiched between them.

To finish top six, Lindblad is likely to need some attrition ahead of him, but the team have had a couple of 6th places, at Monaco and Silverstone. Lindblad has had two 7th places from the last four races. He expects that Norris and Hadjar will both get past him.

Audi have the in-form Bortoleto in 8th place and he ended a run of three consecutive 11th place finishes with an 8th place at Silverstone. He got a nice tow on his final Q3 run, which may have flattered his pace. Bortoleto says the Racing Bulls are quicker and his battle is with the Alpines, maybe for a point.  Hulkenberg went out in Q2 and his car stopped on track before he could get back to the pits. It was a hydraulic problem and he really doesn’t get much luck.

Alpine

Alpine will be hoping that their race pace once again proves to be better than qualifying pace. Gasly has struggled all weekend and had a big smash in practice. He starts tenth, a position he was never close to in any timed session.

Colapinto starts one place back in 11th place. The Alpine was struggling on the soft tyres so back on the medium – hard compounds, they may be a bit more competitive, but they accept that the Racing Bulls are too quick and they are racing Bortoleto.

The rest are just making up the numbers and would need high attrition if they were to score points.

2026 Belgian GP Raceday Weather

The weather is cloudier today and there has been some spots of rain, but not enough to wet the track for any of the support races. The forecast for the race is partly cloudy skies, highs of 18–21°C, with a gentle breeze. Risk of rain in the race window is less than 30%.

The favoured race strategy is likely to be a one stop race. Those at the front have no new softs left, so they will be doing a medium-hard strategy, but those cars with new softs can do a soft-hard. Of course, should we get a VSC or safety car, a two stopper comes into play.

2026 Belgian GP Raceday Summary

This is Antonelli’s race to lose. He has the quickest car by some margin. Yes, the last four pole sitters here have failed to win the race and only five of the last ten have done so, but such is the car advantage he has on this track, he can even afford to lose the lead at the start and just recover it later.

Mercedes have suffered with poor reliability, but we can’t rely on that continuing. They seem to have got on top of the battery problems that were their biggest problem. Antonelli’s body work problem, which ended his hopes of a win at Silverstone, was a bit of a freak event and unlikely to be repeated. He makes zero appeal as a bet, but he is the very likely winner.

Podium Battle

Who will join him on the podium is the interesting bit. Verstappen and Russell start in the podium positions, but both have complained about straight-line speed. Verstappen said today would be a day for looking in his mirrors rather than looking ahead for someone to pass.

The two Ferraris will fancy their chances of a good start and then see how it all works out. They are regular visitors to the podium in 2026 and they have had a car on the podium here in seven of the last ten years and been third for the last four years.

Both Leclerc and Hamilton are 3.00 to finish on the podium. Only once in the last ten years has the car starting 4th finished on the podium and the driver starting 5th has had two podium finishes.

Hamilton Or Leclerc?

If Ferrari are to keep their podium run going, which driver will do it? Hamilton was the faster driver right up to his FP3 smash. There has to be a doubt about just how well his repaired car is set up. It was a rush job to get it ready for qualifying and the setup is locked in now. They were separated by just 0.002s at the end of qualifying, which suggests that it is OK. Leclerc did have a lift on his final Q3 run which may have cost him a little time.

Hamilton is 6-3 up on his teammate in the races. Leclerc has started from 4th place four times in 2026 and finished on the podium twice. Hamilton started from 5th in Canada and finished 2nd.  Hamilton has beaten Leclerc in five of the last six races. I am siding with the in-form Hamilton.

2026 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 3.00 with Betvictor, Livescorebet, Skybet, Betfair

We had Antonelli to set the fastest lap at Silverstone, which he did, before his car developed that problem. He has now scored six of the nine fastest laps in 2026. His teammate has the same car, but it is just a lot slower for Russell.

Verstappen, Norris and Hamilton have had one each. The only driver who looks a danger is Norris and he is going to be in traffic today, which won’t help. Antonelli just gives it the full beans and in the fastest car, he has to be a better chance to get his seventh fastest lap than odds of 2.30 suggest. He is 1.44 to win the race, but he has had more fastest laps than race wins.

2026 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to set the fastest lap @ 2.30 with Unibet

I was hoping to find a way to back Norris. He has been very strong this weekend but his ten-place grid penalty has rather ruined things for him. He was the second fastest driver in FP2 and FP3 and 3rd in qualifying. Lando will make forward progress but is just 1.55 to finish in the top 6.

The only one that looks backable is a match bet for him to beat his teammate. Piastri has been slow, the team citing a power unit issue, similar to the one affecting Russell. Norris should have the pace to get into the top six today, but will Piastri have it to stay there? Some firms have Norris as a shorter price to make the top six than Piastri.

2026 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to beat Oscar Piastri @ 2.15 with Fitzdares

The other match bet I like is Verstappen to beat Russell. We had the same bet in qualifying that paid off and Max has been faster in every session so far.

2026 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to beat George Russell @ 1.80 with Fitzdares

Finally, I will go right to the back and a bet on a Cadillac! Unibet and Fitzdares have a Group 4 made up of the two Cadillacs of Bottas and Perez, along with the two Aston Martins.

The two Astons are even worse here than anywhere else, over two seconds slower than the Cadillacs. This is, in effect, a match bet between the two Cadillacs. They have found a solution to their brake issues and both made the end of the race at Silverstone. That is their target today, just finish and gather data.

Botts beat Perez in Silverstone and he looks to be finding his feet after a rocky start to the season. He has been quicker than Perez in all four timed sessions so far.

2026 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to win Group 4 @ 2.25 with Unibet, Fitzdares

-JamesPunt