2026 WM Darts Friday Preview & Tips – JP
2026 WM Darts Friday Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2026 WM Darts Friday preview and tips.
Thursday Reflections
Another bad night at the office last night. Three bets, three losers and another 2 points lost. This tournament is as much fun as the Premier League, but at least it’s nearly over. We have James Wade flying the flag for our ante-post bets tonight, so I guess that means he is going to get stuffed.
As far as the tournament goes, of the top 16 seeds, we still have four of the top ten in the competition. History tells us that as the fifteenth seed, Ross Smith will not make the final, nor will the unseeded Dirk van Duijvenbode. I think we can take it as read that Littler wins the title and we are just trying to establish who he plays in the final.
The four remaining players in the bottom half of the draw play their quarter finals tonight to see who will face off in the semi-finals and a chance to get beaten by Littler in Sunday’s final.
Ross Smith vs. Gerwyn Price
I am sure Ross Smith doesn’t care what the historical stats say about his chances. He has reached another quarter final, won at least £35k and secured his place in the World’s top 16.
He has done it by beating Kevin Doets 10-6 in a cracking match, or at least the second part of it was. Smudger got a free pass into the quarter finals when Cameron Menzies withdrew from their second-round match due to illness. That means Smith hasn’t played any more than a few legs since Monday. I’m sure he’ll take it, but he is a bit out of the loop.
Lacking Consistency
Smith has won six of his last ten completed matches and is playing well, if lacking a bit of consistency. Gerwyn Price has won four of his last ten matches, but something has happened to him. He has enjoyed himself!
Price has spent the last months looking disinterested and would rather be back home on the farm. But the new Grandad turned up, and was lucky to get drawn against a player who knows he can’t win in Blackpool.
Price beat Schindler 11-9 but only took the lead in the penultimate leg. I suspect just about any other of the unseeded players would have beaten Price that night, but he drew the out of form German. The crowd were even on his side.
Enjoying Himself
After that Price turned up to play Rob Cross in round two and decided that he may as well have a go. Cross went 3-2 up at the break but went to bits after that. Cross only won two more legs, Price won nine and the match 11-5. Suddenly, Price has trousered £35k, has enjoyed himself, is playing well, and the crowd are still on his side!
He now goes into a quarter final, feeling good and with no real pressure. He didn’t expect to get this far and anything else is a bonus. Smith on the other hand, knows he got a bit lucky with Menzies having to withdraw, and Smith wants (and needs?) to prove that he is not just a flash in the pan one time Major winner. And he needs the cash more than Price does.
H2H
Their H2H record is 5-5. They have played once in 2026 which saw an 8-6 win for Price in the final of ET5 in April. Their only other match in the last two years was here in 2024, which Smith won 11-9. Five of their eight best of eleven leg matches saw over 9.5 legs, so they have a history of fairly close matches.
I have to side with the number 7 seed to progress, but we may get a good, close match. Price is the 1.57 favourite, Smith 2.63. For the number of legs in the matches, the bookmakers are putting the line at over/under 27.5, with overs the 1.80 favourite. There is not a lot of value in either market. That sums up the Matchplay, not a lot of value.
180s
The only market I can see some sense in, is the total 180’s market. I went for that in the Littler vs. Aspinall and won the bet but massively underestimated how many there would be. I went for over 12.5, and it ended up with 22. It would have been a cracking spread bet.
I agree with the market that this looks like being a long match. Smith is ranked 11th for 180s per leg, Price 18th. Their combined rate is 0.65 per leg measured over the last 12 months. Looking at the tiny sample of what the two players have done this week, we have Smith hitting 180s at 0.53 per leg and Price at 0.42.
Both players like giving it large when the maximums are hit and we could see these two going at it like rutting stags. Potentially a long match with two players who have had their eye in on the treble 20. Smith even hit three in the three legs played before Menzies withdrew. Smudger played James Wade in the 2024 quarter final and that one saw a 16-10 scoreline and 23 maximums, ten for Smith
2026 WM Darts Friday Tip: 1 point over 20.5 180s @ 2.75 with Boylesports
Gian Van Veen vs. James Wade
We effectively have Wade to win at 6.50 here having backed him at that price to win the 4th quarter. Wade has a fine record of winning quarter finals here, having played thirteen and won ten, including in the last two years. Recent form sees Wade winning six of his last ten and his tournament averages so far is 97.52.
Van Veen is getting his form back, winning eight of his last ten matches, but he isn’t playing as well as Wade is right now. It seems strange to say that someone winning eight of their last ten matches is lacking in consistency, but his scoring sees only four 95+ averages and he will need his A game to give Wade a match in this format.
H2H
Their H2H record is 9-4 to Wade and their last long format match was a 16-13 win for Wade in last year’s quarter final here. Their only other long format match was in the 2023 European Championship semi-final, which Wade won 11-9.
Gian van Veen is the 1.80 favourite, with Wade 2.10. I am surprised. I have Wade as the favourite. Yes, it could be close. Van Veen is stealing Wade’s clothes by being the best doubles hitter so far. Van Veen is checking out at 58%, Wade 47%.
Heavy Scoring
Unusually, it is Wade who has been scoring more heavily and hitting more 180s. Van Veen’s 180 per leg rate is just 0.12, Wade’s 0.32. It is a bit arse about tit from what you might expect. Van Veen hanging in thanks to his doubles, Wade putting scoring pressure on his opponents.
I still have to make Wade favourite. His is the better all round game right now , but there is no need to back him at 2.10 when we are on at 6.50.
Like the previous match, the best value may lie in the 180s market. In his last 60 legs played, Van Veen has hit just eight 180s at 0.13 per leg. In the same period of four matches, two here, two on the Euro Tour, Wade has hit sixteen in fifty two legs played, a rate of 0.31per leg. Strange, but true.
