2026 Bahrain GP Raceday Preview

It was a cracking day for us on Saturday with qualifying winners at 6.00 and 2.10 from two bets. Check out James Punt’s 2026 Bahrain GP Raceday preview and tips below.

2026 Bahrain GP Raceday

It was nice to be on the winning end of a small margin for a change! Hadjar landed the top 3 bet in qualifying by 0.073 seconds from Antonelli. Leclerc also beat Norris by 0.096s, so a decent pay back on the very narrow losses recently.

Our ante-post selection, Max Verstappen, advised at 9.00, got pole position by a three tenths margin. He is now a 1.57 chance to win the race tomorrow. Fingers crossed on that one.

Weather Watch

The weather forecast is for more of the same. Hot and humid but the chance of rain has fallen. Yesterday it was a 40-70% chance of thunderstorms, but as of around 18 hours before the start of the race, the chance of thunderstorms has fallen to 20-40%. These are for scattered, isolated showers, so it looks like we should get away with another dry race, but you never can tell here.

We haven’t raced here since 2017 and certainly never with this generation of cars. The pole sitter won two of the last five races here, and in the last ten we have had five wins for Red Bull, three for Ferrari, one for Brawn and one for Mercedes.

Mercedes had the dominant car in 2014 – 2017, but they only had one win in the early days of the turbo Hybrid era. Verstappen only raced here three times and was 2nd in 2016 and won it in 2017. Lewis Hamilton won it in 2014 but had five pole positions in the last six races in Sepang. Alonso won three times around this track. Those three drivers shone in qualifying, so maybe their knowhow around the track paid dividends.

2026 Bahrain GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

Red Bull

Have the best car this weekend and took advantage. Verstappen knows the track, loves the track and actually was saying some nice things about the car. That is bad news for his rivals. Hadjar has a five place grid penalty to take, so he starts from eighth.

The car was very quick on the straights, but they were also much improved in the fast and medium speed corners, something that has not been the case this season. That didn’t really show in Baku with the number of 90 degree corners. People were fixated on Mercedes’ upgrade this weekend, but it was Red Bull’s Baku upgrade which clicked into place on this track. They stepped forward, Mercedes stepped back.

Ferrari

Hamilton was very happy with his second place, his third front row of the season. He converted one in Barcelona to a race win, but that was on the back of a big upgrade. Leclerc had been quicker than Hamilton in practice, but he had a poor Q3 and starts from 4th after Hadjar’s penalty.

Hamilton was realistic after qualifying. He says the car is losing time in the straights and they are really pushing in the corners to keep up with Red Bull. That is ok on a new set of tyres in qualifying, but he realised that over a race distance, you are going to over work the tyres and this is a high degradation circuit.

The Ferrari isn’t overly hard on tyres, but if they try to race Verstappen, they could be. Like Verstappen, Ferrari have a set of new soft tyres in reserve. That opens up more strategy options. Leclerc was the only driver to run a hard tyre in practice, so Ferrari have more data than the others.

Mercedes

The upgraded car was nothing special in the end, at least around this track. They expected a 0.3 second uptick in pace but didn’t get it. Toto Wolff said that the car was too draggy and they were losing straight-line speed and poor in the slow corners. Sounds like they have copied the McLaren.

The lack of straight-line speed will hamper their progress, but they will be in good company as Ferrari and McLaren have said much the same thing. Wolff says the upgraded car is 0.3s slower, and not 0.3s quicker, so something has gone wrong somewhere.

Off The Pace

They had looked better in FP3, but in qualifying Russell was right off the pace. Antonelli was closer, but he had a lap time deleted and had to burn another set of softs in Q3. He also needed to make it stick, and it was a conservative lap, only going purple in the final sector. There was more there. Things may not be as bleak as made out.

Mercedes have suffered with tyre wear already in 2026, so this track is not a good fit in that respect. The car is producing more downforce, but that is increasing tyre degradation. On the long runs, the Mercedes was nearly a second slower than Verstappen, and slower than the Ferrari and McLarens as well. Antonelli was hopeful of making the podium, but he might have trouble keeping Leclerc and Hadjar at bay.

McLaren

Norris was very downbeat after qualifying. No, the car wasn’t set up to favour race pace over one lap pace, it was just slow. He did concede that their long run pace was decent, however. In qualifying 6th and 7th was about right.

The McLarens will now start ahead of Hadjar, but will struggle to keep him behind. They have lost their high-speed corner advantage to Red Bull, and Ferrari were also quicker in the corners. McLaren might be able claw some time back with good tyre management, but they are not really podium material.

Norris was losing a lot of time in the straights. He had a similar problem in Baku and it was specific to his car. It is not a huge power loss but it just makes it hard for him to improve.

Alpine

Best of the rest this weekend, but Colapinto starts 21st thanks to his penalties. Gasly starts 9th and it will be the usual hard battle for some minor points. He saved a new set of soft tyres by running used ones in Q3, knowing that there was no chance of crashing the top four’s party. His job is to hold position rather than move forward.

Audi

Bortoleto manged to get 10th place. He has improved his place by one position in each session so far. Hulkenberg had a lock up in Q1 and starts in 15th. The team will try and use a good strategy to try and move him up the order. The car is not particularly good here and making Q3 was as good as they could have hoped for.

Racing Bulls

Disappointing for the second race in a row. Lawson was 11th, while Lindblad starts in last place after his penalties. The car had looked decent in practice but Lawson lacked grip in qualifying. Points are still possible for him.

Aston Martin

The team’s best qualifying session of the season and Alonso starts 12th and Stroll 14th. Obviously, reliability is their big problem, even if they have shown better pace. Stroll has DNF in five of the last six races, Alonso in two of the last three. Alonso is a wise old fox, has won three races here and he will maximise his chances, if the car doesn’t let him down.

Williams

13th was the very best the car could to. Sainz maxxed out, but Albon didn’t make it out of Q3. He is in poor form and the upgraded car is still a dog. Only Cadillac are slower here. Praying for the rain that may not come.

Haas

Didn’t look great in practice and it was worse in qualifying They start 16th and 17th thanks to other’s penalties.

Cadillac

Expected to struggle here and they were right. They are racing Albon’s Williams for last place. Perez is even running an old spec Ferrari PU, as there was no point wasting mileage on the new one. That explains why Bottas has been faster all weekend.

2026 Bahrain GP Raceday Summary

It appears that this is Verstappen’s race to lose. The Red Bull has been the most impressive car this weekend and their race pace looks strong, as it usually is.

So long as he makes a good start and opens a 1 second plus gap, Verstappen can control the race and look after his tyres in the clean air. He has the talent to manage his tyres and it is easier to do from the front. His biggest threats are a weather intervention or a bad pit stop, of which there will be two, or maybe three.

Hadjar is out of position thanks to his penalty and I can see him having a good race. Maybe another double podium for Red Bull?

Podium Hopes

Who else might make the podium? Hamilton has the track knowledge and is a good tyre whisperer, but he needs the team to be right on top of strategy, and good luck with that. The same goes for Leclerc.

Antonelli will drive the wheels off the car, but tyre management is likely to pay more dividends. The team have had a car on the podium at every race of the season. It would be ironic if they failed to do so on the back of a big upgrade.

Tyre degradation will be a big issue in the race tomorrow. We will see different strategies played out and hopefully it will be an entertaining race, and not overly affected by VSC’s or red flags.

RaceDay Bets

Winner

We are on Max e/w at 9.00, so no need to play in this market.

Podium Finish

I am happy to re-invest some of our qualifying winnings on Hadjar to make the podium. He was top three in every session so far. The Red Bull is very strong around this track and his car is quicker in the right places to be able to make up ground. The reason why teams have decided to take penalties here is because they think it is a decent track for overtaking, a bit like Spa.

2026 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Isack Hadjar to finish on the podium @ 3.50 with Livescorebet

Points Finish

With the same sort of logic, I will have a minimum bet on Lindblad to finish in the points. The car has top ten pace, it has for most of the season. Lindblad has only missed out on the points once in his last ten races. Obviously, he usually starts in the top 10, but he has made it into the points from 15th twice. This is a track on which places can be made up.

He will need some attrition to help his chances, but the odds are big. He knew the penalty was coming and has spent free practice working on long run pace. If he can get a good start and make up places on lap one, he then has a long race to use the car’s pace to climb the order, but the start is crucial.

I was going to back him in a match bet to beat Colapinto at 2.50 (Fitzdares), but I will be greedy, and probably regret it.

2026 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Arvid Lindblad to finish in the points @ 9.00 with Unibet, Ladbrokes, Betvictor

Match Betting

I really don’t like backing drivers twice in one race, but Hadjar looks value to beat Russell. Hadjar has the quicker car and starts just one place behind the rather bamboozled Russell. I may have cursed him with two bets, but he should win this one.

2026 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Isack Hadjar to beat George Russell @ 1.75 with Unibet

Group Bet

Fitzdares look like they just copy their F1 markets off Unibet, but they feel obliged to change a few, just to look a bit different. Both have the same groups, but in their Group B, Fitzdares have one driver at bigger odds, just because. The group is made up of the two McLarens and Pierre Gasly and Liam Lawson.

The McLaren is not that great here, but a lot better than the Alpine of Gasly, or the Racing Bull of Lawson. It has the look of a McLaren match bet. Unibet have Piastri at 3.00, Unibet 2.50. Unibet are closer to the right odds.

Norris has a straight-line deficit to his teammate. He was trailing Piastri badly in Baku with the same issue, but neither driver covered themselves in glory thanks to lock ups. Piastri is said to be better on high grip surfaces, so this track should be to his liking. He said that his qualifying lap in Q3 was lost in turn two, but that the car has good race pace. If he has a slightly quicker one than Norris, he should make it pay.

2026 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to win Group B @ 3.00 with Fitzdares

-JamesPunt