2026 US GP Raceday Preview

The maestro James Punt kept up the good work in Singapore with five tasty winners. Fingers crossed for more of the same this weekend. His 2026 US GP outright betting preview and tips are below.

2026 US GP

The Singapore GP was a profitable one with five winners yielding a net profit of 8.10 points, bringing the YTD tally to +22.19 points. That is just over 30 points gained in the last two races.

We now embark on another block of three races, in three weeks. The USGP in Texas this weekend, then down to Mexico City, followed by Sau Paulo. The good news is that there no more sprint race weekends in 2026! The bad news, there will be ten of the bastards in 2027.

The FIA have said again this week, that they are sticking to the calendar as it stands for the remaining races, meaning that F1 will be going to Qatar and Abu Dhabi, whether team personnel like it or not. FIA Dictator, sorry, El Presidenti, Mohammed Ben Sulayem, says that his kids live in Abu Dhabi, so it must be safe. And that’s that. Liberty Media need the races to go ahead, otherwise they lose a load of cash, so go ahead they must.

The number of races is largely irrelevant as far as the championships go. Kimi Antonelli is still 102 points ahead in the Drivers’ Championship, and Mercedes 134 points ahead in the Constructors’ Championship. They may not have the best car on the grid anymore, but if Antonelli can score 49 points from the last six races, there is nothing anyone can do to stop him.

2026 US GP: The Track

This weekend’s venue is the Circuit of the Americas, in Austin Texas. It is a purpose built circuit, first used in 2012. It is a Herman Tilke design and is a hybrid of other great F1 tracks around the world, stuck together to make a decent, all round test for an F1 car.

It is a fairly long 5.5km lap, featuring twenty corners and two straights worth the name. There is a hill to climb and descend, a series of Silverstone style sweeping curves, an Istanbul multi apex 180 degree turn and six slow, hairpin style corners.

It is not quite a classic in my book, but the uphill, blind, sharp left handed first corner produces crashes, the hairpin turn 11 offers up an overtaking chance, as does turn 12. It also offers up a chance to hang an opponent out to dry, and it is a layout blighted by track limit violations.

Bumpy

It was built on cheap marsh land, and has been prone to the track getting very bumpy as it sinks into the soft base layer. Max Verstappen says that after he watched the World Endurance Cars race here recently, he reckons he will ‘have to order a new spine’ after the race. Turns 9 through 11 have been resurfaced this year while bumps have been removed at the entry of Turns 12 and 19.

It can produce some drama, and it isn’t the worst track on the calendar. The start is strange. The cars launch up a steep hill, into a very sharp left hander. It is a blind corner and the starts have favoured the car starting second on the grid. They are on the inside line and tend to arrive at the apex first.

Behind the leaders, there is usually some contacts and drivers getting spun around. There is plenty of run off room. But it just gets very tight and it is a case of crash, bang and wallop.

The pole sitter has won six of the thirteen races here, the driver in second has won five, one has been won from 4th and the other from 6th. The average attrition rate has been 3.00, with a high of eight in 2015, and a low of just one, which has been the case for the last two years.

2026 US GP: The Weather

Texas at this time of year can be anything. It can flood, it can be very cold, or it can be pleasant and sunny. The forecast for this weekend is for hot, sunny and dry conditions.

Friday is set for highs of 31 degrees, mostly sunny conditions with a 1% chance of rain. Saturday will be much the same. Race day will see a little more in the way of clouds, and 28c degrees, but again, very little chance of rain.

Development Wars

It is getting a bit late in the season for major upgrades, but with so many parts that will carry through to 2027, we are likely to see bits and pieces, as well as track specific parts. If the teams have any wriggle room left in their budgets, they can continue to bring new parts.

This weekend, with no sprint format, good weather and a track with different types of corners, is a good place to try out any new parts, so we may see various tweaks up and down the paddock.

Ferrari Upgrade

However, this weekend we will finally get to see the long awaited Ferrari upgrade. This is said to be their biggest upgrade of the year. It will feature modifications to the floor, sidepods and upper bodywork.

The bodywork changes are said to be modifications on their current design, tweaks aimed at reducing drag and improving straight line performance. The side pods have not been radically changed, but the main area of development is the new floor. It is a complete, front to back, redesign. It was thought that it would be especially rewarded at this track. The aim is to increase downforce and improve the balance of the car, making the sweet spot bigger.

Press Conference

At the press conference, the two drivers seriously downplayed their expectations for the upgrade. “We have a very, very small upgrade this weekend. It’s less than a tenth. It’s like half a tenth,” Hamilton said. “I don’t think that propels us forward enough to necessarily challenge that deficit (to Red Bull).”

Leclerc said: “they are not that major upgrades that many…I mean I’ve heard quite a lot about them, but they are not as big as maybe what’s going around.”

McLaren say that they will have a few new development parts which will help ‘a little bit’, but nothing significant.

Mercedes planned power unit upgrade is not ready yet. Hopefully it will be in time for the Sao Paulo weekend. A fresh, more powerful engine would be very useful there.

2026 US GP: Team-by-Team

Mercedes

Struggling to get their latest upgrade to work as expected. The extra downforce is there, but it has knocked the balance of the car out. There is now more downforce at the front of the car, and we have seen them putting on, and taking off the latest front wing. They had a street race sprint weekend in Singapore last time out and that wasn’t an ideal place to try and work on a fix.

The team will be running both cars with the upgraded package. They are still working on getting the upgrade to work properly, and say this track, with plenty of practice time, will allow to do it.

Displaced As Fastest

For all their struggles, Antonelli has still finished on the podium in seven of his last eight races, but there is no doubt that they have been displaced by Red Bull as being the fastest car.

This track used to be a real Mercedes/Hamilton fortress. They won this race five times at the start of the of the turbo hybrid era. Only Raikkonen’s win for Ferrari in 2018, breaking their run. Post Covid, it has been Red Bull who have dominated, with only Charles Leclerc breaking their monopoly in 2024.

Of the two drivers, Russell has never finished better than 5th here, while Antonelli was back in 13th on debut. They should be doing better than that this year but beating Verstappen will be hard.

Ferrari

Still in second place, pulling away from McLaren, and still over 100 points ahead of the charging Red Bulls. We shall have to see how much their upgrade will improve their car. On paper, it looks to be a reasonable fit. There are a lot of slow, technical corners. The one long straight won’t help, but you get straights pretty much everywhere. The upgrade is designed to take some drag off the car, so that should help on the straights, but their power unit will be the same, and down on their main rivals.

Singapore was a mixed bag for Ferrari. Leclerc had a decent weekend, qualifying and finishing second. Lewis Hamilton qualified third, but finished a poor sixth, after he decided to take matters into his own hands and run to his own strategy. Staying out on old tyres, in an attempt to hold track position, completely backfired. He was wearing some serious egg on his face.

Unhappy Hamilton

It is another sign that he is not happy at Ferrari. He isn’t used to a team that underperforms as a matter of course. However, doing your own thing just puts everyone’s nose out of joint. It is especially bad when you choose completely the wrong strategy. It cost the team points, it cost him a podium.

The COTA is one of Hamilton’s favourite tracks, or at least, being in America is one of his happy places. He has won five races here and had three poles. However, after a nine year run of wins and podiums here, his last three results have been DSQ/ DNF/4. Leclerc has one race win and one pole, two 3rd places and three 4th places.

Who will be Ferrari’s leader this weekend? Normally, around here, I think Hamilton would be, but is he falling out with the team? His antics in Singapore were really poor.

McLaren

Trying to hold the Red Bulls at bay, but their lead over them is now just seven points. They will have some new parts on the car, but Piastri said that there was no magic bullet that was going to make them race winners again.

They had a good run from Hungary through to Spain. Norris won two races, a 3rd place and three pole positions, but since then his form figures have been DNF/9/4. Piastri hasn’t finished higher than 5th since Austria, at the end of June.

They are now slower than Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes.

Neither driver has won here. Norris has had a couple of second places and one pole, Piastri two 5^th places. Fifth place looks about right for the lead McLaren this weekend.

Red Bull

Max Verstappen has won the last two GPs of 2026 (and the Singapore Sprint). He has had eight podiums from his last ten GPs, and now that they have sorted the car more to his liking, he is the top dog again.

The problem with getting the car to Verstappen’s liking, is that Isack Hadjar is likely to struggle. He came back from his wrist injury and said that the car was noticeably different. He did well in Baku, finishing 3rd, but has been 5th and 10th when Max has been winning from pole. Hadjar was 16th on debut last year. He had to start from the pit lane in Singapore, and finishing 10th was about right from there, on a street track.

Fastest Car

Hadjar claimed the Ferrari had the fastest car in Singapore, and he may have a point. Their qualifying times were very close, and once Max got clear, he was always in the best position to win. The Ferrari is a more competitive car on a slower street track. That Verstappen still won means that on a ‘normal’ race track, his advantage is likely to be bigger, dependent on how Ferrari’s upgrades work of course.

Red Bull have been strong here in recent years, winning four of the last five races here, all with Verstappen. He has not been worse than 3rd here for the last eight years, and has had two pole positions.

Traditionally, the Red Bull has not enjoyed bumpy tracks, or kerb riding, but the upgraded car does seem to have improved in that respect, and it hasn’t hurt them here in recent years in any case.

Max Verstappen will be working with a new race engineer, Tom Hart, this weekend, rather than his usual sparring partner, Gianpiero Lambiase. Good to see Tom Hart finally joining ‘The Piranhas’ Club.

Racing Bulls

Have opened up a 32 point lead over Alpine and continue to shine in the midfield. Lawson’s average finishing position in the Racing Bull is 8.08, but their qualifying pace isn’t that great. Better backed on race day?

Lindblad is closing in on Gasly for 10th place in the Drivers’ Championship, but he is making his debut here. Lawson has finished 9th and 11th in his two previous races at COTA. The car is a great all-rounder and seems to be competitive everywhere.

Alpine

Gasly has been getting good results in qualifying, reaching Q3 in four of the last five races, but scoring points in just one. That was when he started from pole at Monza, finishing 7th. Colapinto likewise has been disappointing recently, in qualifying and the races.

The last three races have yielded no points for Alpine. With the midfielders fighting over two or three of the minor points scoring places, you can’t afford any mistakes, or being out developed, otherwise the points are not there. Racing Bulls have the better car, so the Alpines need them, and/or the big four, to have problems.

Haas

Still largely dining out on the points scored in the first six races of the season. They have had ten pointless races since then, with only very high attrition in Baku allowing them to add to their tally. The team have introduced various upgrades in the season, but none have worked as expected. There is no reason to think they can score here, certainly on merit.

Audi

Have scored in six of the last nine races, and they are usually thereabouts with one car after qualifying. They can take advantage of any problems for the cars ahead. They are now just seven points behind the stalled Haas cars, and that is their target, eight points gained on Haas before the end of the season.

Hulkenberg has six top 9 finishes here over the years and he is leading the Audi charge. Bortoleto has been pointless in the last seven races. In the same period, Hulkenberg’s average finishing position is 9.86. The German’s qualifying average over those seven races has been 13.29. Another driver better considered on Sundays.

Williams

Sainz summed up his chances very well in the press conference. The car can make Q2 with a really good Q1 performance, but if he is to score points, he needs Baku levels of attrition. He is now 14-3 in qualifying H2H with his teammate, Alex Albon, which tells us that Albon’s chances of a point are even smaller.

Aston Martin

Alonso has scored points in two of the last six races. The car was half decent on the fast, flowing Sepang circuit, but rubbish and unreliable elsewhere. Sepang was a bit of an outlier due to the track’s surface, and it suited the Aston for whatever reason.

Cadillac

As far away from the rest of the pack as ever. They will have a special edition livery for another home race. At least everyone will be able to see it, as the car is so slow, and usually ends up parked up by the side of the track.

2026 US GP: Summary

We are back on a modern, purpose built circuit. A big, wide track, a bit like Sepang, and hot like Sepang, but with different tarmac, many more slow corners and fewer straights.

Red Bull have been the car to beat for the last two races. We have seen the likes of Ferrari and McLaren have little periods of being top dogs, but it didn’t last. Red Bull are trying to make their good form last more than just a couple of races. They have the big advantage of having the best driver in the world in the car. Give him a decent car and he can beat a better one. In the best car, it’s easy.

Not A Huge Advantage

The Red Bull does not have a massive advantage. Ferrari were very close in Singapore, but that was a good track for Ferrari. Red Bull were more comfortable in Malaysia, a more normal racetrack, and Verstappen very nearly closed down George Russell around the streets of Baku, despite the Mercedes having a massive pace advantage in qualifying. Three different tracks, but in the end, Verstappen was 2nd, 1st and 1st.

Ferrari have an upgraded car this weekend. Their biggest of the season, or worth less than a tenth of a second, depending on who you talk to. Whatever it is, it should be an improvement. They have the second best car right now, and if Red Bull have a slip, they are most likely to take advantage. They are much more likely to make a slip themselves of course. The Masters of Disasters.

Mercedes May Rebound

Mercedes could bounce back. They have three practice sessions to unlock the potential of their last upgrade. If they can unpick the lock, they could win the race. Antonelli being the most likely to do so.

McLaren have a few new parts which will make a little improvement, but they have lost their way and are racing for 5th-6th on merit.

The midfield battle is likely to be won by Racing Bulls, with maybe Hulkenberg giving them something to think about on Sunday. The rest are making up the numbers.

It isn’t a hard job to be a Formula 1 odds complier right now. Sadly, that means, there is little ante post value around. There usually is on race day, and maybe for qualifying.

Two Bets

There are two bets for now. Neither are big odds, but they do look like the odds are wrong to some degree. I have Verstappen at odds on for the race. There are threats, mostly from Mercedes finding the key to their upgrade, but this has been a good track for Verstappen.

If it gets a bit wheel to wheel, he just nerfs the other guy off the track and gets away with it. He has stopped moaning about the car in recent races, and tells us a lot.

Further down the field, Lindblad looks underrated. Yes, this a new track for him to learn, but he has got the three practice sessions to do so. It is not a particularly difficult track in any case. He has finished in the points in ten of the last twelve races, and while it is hard for the midfielders to score points, he has been doing so with great regularity. He is odds on, but his odds still look generous.

2026 US GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win @ 2.20 with SpreadEx

2026 US GP Tip: 2 points Arvid Lindblad to finish in the points @ 1.85 with Livescorebet

Back for qualifying tomorrow evening, with a brief update and maybe a bet or two.

-JamesPunt