2026 US GP Qualifying Preview

James Punt has already posted his outright, team by team betting preview, see that here. His 2026 US GP qualifying preview and tips are below.

2026 US GP Qualifying

The three free practice sessions have been quite interesting. Ferrari have been fastest in all three. Leclerc in FP1 and FP2, Hamilton in FP3. Max Verstappen is right up there, 2nd, 3rd and 2nd and very close time wise. The two Mercedes have been around the 4th and 5th spots. McLaren had looked to be in the mix in FP1 but they have dropped out of the frame and are looking more like third or fourth row material.

To me, it looks the battle for pole is between the two Ferraris and Verstappen.

Track Limits

The big issue in free practice has been about track limit violations. It is always a problem here. The track invites the car to move right out on the corners and in FP3 there were 42 track limit violations. Cross the track limits line and your time is deleted.

It is going to be a problem in qualifying and we could even see a big gun going out in Q1. Charles Leclerc set the fastest time in FP3, but it was deleted. He had five lap times deleted. It is hard to push the car to the limit here and not fall foul with track limits.

The driver who gets pole today, will have to be close to perfection. We know that Max, Charles and Lewis can do perfection in qualifying, and right now, Max is the best driver in the world. He might be in a car that is a little down on one lap pace, however. Ferrari do seem to be strong here, at least over a flying lap.

Corner Kings

The more corners there are, the better Ferrari go. There are a lot of corners here, and many of them, slower, technical ones, which plays to Ferrari’s strengths.

Hamilton (3), Verstappen (2) and Leclerc (1) have all had poles here. Ferrari have not had a podium this season. Verstappen has had two, the last two.

The question is, has the Ferrari update really made the difference? After three practice sessions, and most importantly FP3, I would have to say yes. It is now just a question of execution, which is not Ferrari’s strong point.

I am writing this up one and a half hours before the qualifying session, and nearly an hour since the end of FP3.

The market, in general, has Leclerc around the 3.25 to 2.75 mark, Verstappen 2.75 and Hamilton 5.00. Skybet and Paddy Power have been very slow to cut their odds. And you might still get 13.00 for Hamilton.

2026 US GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 3.25 with SpreadEx

-JamesPunt