2026 US GP Raceday Preview

Charles Leclerc let the side down in qualifying but James Punt is hoping to rebound on raceday. His 2026 US GP Raceday preview and tips are below.

2026 US GP Raceday

Last night’s qualifying was bizarre. Ferrari had been fastest in every session, and then fell very flat in qualifying, ending up 4th and 5th. ‘Too slow on the straights’ said Hamilton, but why suddenly slower on the straights? A drop in track temperature said Leclerc, but it only dropped 1 degree. Is their car that sensitive to miniscule temperature fluctuations? Maybe it is as simple as the other cars turning their power units up, and Ferrari are just not able to find any more power.

Anyway, we ended up with Antonelli on pole, his first since the Belgian GP back in July. The Mercedes had been 2nd in FP2, but otherwise they looked second or third row material.

Pole position is not imperative around this track. Eleven of the thirteen races here have been won from the front row, however. Some argue that the driver starting from second place has the best line into the first corner. The track sees a lot of support races and that means the track is quite clean, giving decent traction on both sides of the track, which is not always the case.

Race Winner

We have two points on Verstappen at 2.20. He starts from 2nd place and his odds have hardly changed, now a 2.25 chance. He needs a good start, and that means not crashing at the first turn.

It is a track where you can overtake, and a faster car should prevail. But is the Red Bull faster than the Merc? With two cars in the top 3, it looks like it is. Antonelli just strung a good lap together. On Friday, the Ferrari had the best long run pace, but was that because they run with their power units turned up compared to the opposition?

Red Bull were a fraction slower, but just ahead of McLaren, with Mercedes fourth, nearly a tenth off. But of course, that was Friday, and the teams will have refined their set ups since then.

Two Horse Race?

The market is saying that it is a two horse race between Kimi and Max. The King, and the pretender. Surely the kind of front row we will see a lot more of in the years to come.

They have shared three front rows in 2026, and Kimi went on to win all three, but that was earlier in the season, when the Mercedes was top dog, but more so, that the Red Bull wasn’t great. The two machines are much more evenly matched now, and maybe the Red Bull is a tad faster.

Antonelli is on the cusp of winning his first World Championship, he could even do it here, but what he doesn’t need is a DNF. You would have to think, that if Verstappen leans on him at the start, the young Italian would look at the bigger picture. He can go nuts after the title is wrapped up, but not just yet.

I am happy to stick with the Max bet.

Podium Finish

I was toying with the idea of backing Leclerc for a podium in the preview. He was a 3.30 shot before the free practice started. He is now 1.75, which is too short for me. Hadjar is 3.60, but hard to back as he was so unhappy with his car all weekend. He hates it. So difficult to drive etc. That may not bode well for him in the race. I still reckon Leclerc will manage it, but there is no value here. No bet.

Top Six Finish

A market that has been the quick way to the poor house. Oscar Piastri does make some appeal at 2.50. He has racked up ten top six finishes in 2026, and he has done it from 7th on the grid in the last two races.

The McLaren’s long run pace was good on Friday, so he is in with a decent shout. He has finished 5th here for the last two years. His problem is that he has Norris behind him, and Norris is the faster driver. He may just have to settle for 7th, unless we get some attrition from the top six cars, which can happen here. The value is marginal and I never win top 6 bets.

Points Finish

Nico Hulkenberg starts from 11th place, what a surprise said nobody. He has started from 11th here for the last two years and finished 8th on both occasions. The Hulk was running with an older spec car on Friday, but got the new parts yesterday.

He was seventh in FP3, but only managed 12th in qualifying (moved up to 11th due to Lindblad’s penalty). Hulkenberg is a 2.00 shot to finish in the points. I did look at backing Hulkenberg to win a group, but a straightforward top 10 finish bet does look the better option.

2026 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 2.00 with Livescorebet

We backed Lindblad to finish in the points in the preview, and then it was announced that he would get a 5 place grid penalty for taking another new engine. He now starts in 14th place. The car has top ten pace, and on a track where overtaking is possible, hopefully he can make his way back into the points

Group Betting

I have looked at the various groups and there is no value in them this weekend.

Match Betting

There is one match bet that looks interesting. Lewis Hamilton vs. Isack Hadjar. Their H2H record in 2026 is 13-1 to Hamilton. Today Hamilton starts directly behind Hadjar on the grid. That has only happened twice in 2026, but Hamilton still beat Hadjar.

The Ferrari has looked quick all weekend, except in qualifying. Hamilton is happy with the car. Hadjar isn’t happy with his. He was surprised to qualify third. He has complained consistently about the car being hard to drive. Now he has 56 laps in a hard to drive car.

Hamilton is very good around this track and given that H2H record, he looks worth backing at generous odds.

2026 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to beat Isack Hadjar @ 1.81 with Livescorebet

-JamesPunt