2026 Breeders’ Cup Friday Preview

We did okay on Saturday last week, nicking two places at 14s and 20s from four bets. This weekend, we are heading stateside for the Breeders’ Cup, which returns to Keeneland for the first time since 2022. We did quite well the last time it was held at the Kentucky track, hopefully we can repeat the trick. Dave Stevos’ 2026 Breeders’ Cup Friday preview and tips are below.

6.55 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Group 1)

Mischief Magic won this race for Godolphin when it was last run at Keeneland in 2022. He missed the break, they went far too fast in front and after somehow finding a gap at the crucial moment, the son of Exceed And Excel won pretty snugly in the end.

The favourite here, Libertango, has missed the kick on the odd occasion so he will be hoping to win in a similar way. The question is, with odds of just 6-4 on offer, is it worth backing a horse that is almost certainly going to need a bit of luck in running?

Thankfully, with Libertango such a short price, there is each way value to be found elsewhere. I was half-tempted by both Hell Of A Spin and Velozee, but in the end I came down on the Irish raider, Force Noir.

Middle Park Second

He’s by Persian Force, who ran a cracker to finish fourth in this race over C&D in 2022. Bar one poor effort in the Norfolk Stakes back in June, he hasn’t done a whole lot wrong this season. After getting back on track when swooping late to land a conditions race at the Curragh, he went mightily close to beating Orthodox in the G1 Middle Park Stakes at HQ, this time when ridden more aggressively.

The fact that he has shown tactical versatility the last twice is a big plus in my book. If he pings the gates David Egan can simply let him roll but if he doesn’t, he can drop him in and hopefully come with a late run. Odds of 12/1 look more than fair to me about Force Noir and he is the e/w selection.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tip: Force Noir e/w @ 12/1 NB

7.35 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Dirt (Group 1)

This has the makings of a cracking race. Two undefeated, Grade 1 winning fillies head the market, the 2-2 Miss Monica for the bould Bob Baffert and the 3-3 Emphatic for Brendan Walsh. Another horse with an unblemished record is the Brian Lynch trained filly Manuka Honey, although her signature win came in G3 company.

All three of those fillies usually like to be up near the front early, so will we get a pace collapse here? It could be a real possibility, especially as Miss Monica, who is the favourite, also has to prove she has the stamina for this trip.

Outsider

The only outsider that might be held up is the George Weaver trained Revenge Of The Sis. She comes into the race as a maiden and she trailed in over 6l behind Emphatic on her debut at Monmouth Park back in August. The winner did have the benefit of a previous run though, so that offers hope that Revenge Of The Sis might be able to get closer here.

In a Belmont Park G1 last time out, Revenge Of The Sis sat last in a race where it paid to be close to the front. She did stay on pretty well in the closing stages to finish a 4l third, 1.25l behind Rum Twist in second.

I would imagine this is going to be run at a much more frenetic pace than that race at Belmont and once Revenge Of The Sis doesn’t get too far back, hopefully she can run on late and nick some place money at odds of 40/1.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tip: Revenge Of The Sis e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

8.15 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (group 1)

We backed Hard To Justify when she won this race here in 2022 for Chad Brown. Bar her, the last three winners have been trained by O’Briens but I am going to stick with Brown, given his stellar record of six previous wins in this contest.

He runs Domestic Agenda here, a daughter of American Pharoah who has won both starts so far. She stayed on best to beat Charlotte’s Beach on debut at Saratoga (8.5f, gd-fm) and she took the step up to Grade 2 company in her considerable stride on her next start at Belmont Park, galloping clear to score by over 4l.

Obviously, she faces an extremely classy opponent in Sun Goddess, who for many is the banker of the weekend at Keeneland. However, at odds of 12/1 I’ll instead take a punt on Chad Brown’s filly, hopefully she can follow in her stablemate Hard To Justify’s hoofprints.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tip: Domestic Agenda e/w @ 12/1

8.55 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Dirt (Group 1)

After the defection of Gaudreau, only seven run here so the race doesn’t make much appeal from an e/w perspective. In any case, it looks like a race in which the fancied horses will come to the fore and it is difficult to make a solid case for any of the outsiders. No bet.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tip: No Bet

9.35 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Group 1)

Aidan O’Brien is on a five-timer in this race. He’s won the last four, three with favourites, and he fires four bullets this year and in case he doesn’t win it, Joseph is waiting in the wings with Folsom Blues, who is currently battling for favouritism with his Dad’s Great Barrier Reef, who is the choice of Ryan Moore.

Christophe Soumillon, who rode Gstaad to victory in this last year (Moore was injured) is on Haffner, with Lordan on Florida Bay and Colin Keane on Man’s Best Friend. It is a formidable Ballydoyle challenge and chances are, he will win the race for the fifth time in a row.

Upset?

If anything can cause an upset, maybe it can be Agate. By Karakonite, who won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2014, this gelding will be ridden patiently by Tyler Gaffalione. He came up short on his first try in stakes company in a listed heat at Kentucky Downs but he made no mistake upped to G2 company over this C&D last time.

Drawn in 3, he was dropped out early and waited with. As they turned for home Tyler Gaffalione asked him to make his move but he had to take a check. Once he switched him and asked him to quicken, the response was instant and he surged through a tight gap to take the lead and in the end, he won decisively by just under 2l.

How does that form measure up against the European raiders? It is hard to know but to my eye, it was an extremely impressive performance and while he’ll certainly need luck in running, if he gets the gaps Agate should be finishing off stronger than most. As an added bonus, if he does win it’ll sicken those who hate to see geldings running in Grade 1 races. At 20/1, he’s the e/w NAP of the evening.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tip: Agate e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP

-DaveStevos