2026 Mexico GP Betting Preview

The US GP was a struggle for James Punt but we are still well ahead for the season and there’s still opportunities ahead. Fingers crossed James can land some nice winners this weekend. His 2026 Mexico GP betting preview and tips are below.

2026 Mexico GP

After two very profitable races, we were due a bit of a kicking and so it came in Texas. Six bets, five losers and a -5.19 point lose. That takes the STD tally to +17.00.

Basically, we had three bets that lost on the first lap. Verstappen, (our race win bet) lost battery deployment off the line and dropped to third place. Red Bull then decided that the slower, two stop strategy, was the way to go. His car had problems throughout the race and the win was never on. A slow pitstop didn’t help either. Ultimately, the car may not have been quick enough in any case. Verstappen said that he struggled in the fast corners.

Poor Starts Costly

Hulkenberg to finish in the points lost when his car kicked into anti-stall and he dropped five places. He spent the rest of his race recovering the lost places, which he did, but finished where he had started, once again finishing 11th. That is now six eleventh place finishes, and four from his last six races.

We also had Lindblad to finish in the points, but he too got a poor start, having already taken a five place grid penalty. He ended up chasing Hulkenberg home, finishing 12th.

We had a point on Leclerc for pole position, but after being fastest in FP1and FP2, the Ferrari lost pace in qualifying, and he ended up 4th. He went on to set the fastest lap of the race, of course. Our only winner was Hamilton to beat Hadjar, which he did with ease. It was a strange match up that one. He is now 14-1 vs. Hadjar.

We now move south of the border at to the highest F1 track in the world in Mexico City.

2026 Mexico GP: The Track

Before we even look at the track, we have to consider the physics of racing at altitude. Mexico City sits 2240 meters above sea level, or 7350 feet. The air is ‘thinner’ with less oxygen available. That makes it hard work for humans carrying out physical work, but it also is hard work for things like internal combustion engines, turbo units, aerodynamics, and it is also harder to keep things cooled. The cars and their power units will perform differently here.

This is the first year that we are using the new generation of power units. More battery power, less ICE power, but at the end of the day, it is still the ICE that is the source of the cars power. Once the batteries are discharged, they are recharged by the cars braking or by ‘super clipping’, when the ICE, uses it energy to fill up the batteries.

On tracks with lots of braking events, the ICE isn’t required for battery charging, but on one with lots of straights, it is.

Straight Zone Modes

The Mexico City circuit lay out features one very long straight, and other long straight and a third, shorter one, all of them ‘straight zone modes’. The batteries are going to be discharged before the end of the opening straight, and there doesn’t look to be much chance to recharge before the second straight. The rest of the lap sees more corners and time to juice up, before emptying them on the long straight again.

Given that the thin air will mean the ICE units producing less power, and the batteries will be out of power before the end of the first two straights, the lay out of this track looks particularly unsuited to these new power units. Those that have better, longer deployment on the straights will have an advantage, but everyone will be slowing down well before the end of the two longer straights. It could be really crap. It is also likely to mix up the pecking order.

Honda Engines

This used to be a good track for the Honda engines. They had a smaller turbo unit, which worked much more efficiently in the thin air. Even when it was very uncompetitive, it would come here and look a lot better.

At the start of this season, Ferrari had a power unit with a small turbo, which gave them an advantage off the line. They decided to change to a larger one, when the FIA changed the rules for race starts. That effectively gave the other power units a few more seconds on the grid to spool up their turbos, wiping out Ferrari’s advantage. That old turbo would have been very useful here.

While Ferrari have moved to a larger turbo, it is thought that it is still relatively small. If so, they will have an advantage. Big enough to overcome their traditional lack of straight line performance? That is the $64,000 question.

Aerodynamics

The aerodynamics of the cars will also be affected by the thin air. Downforce is reduced for everyone. There is less drag on the straights, but less downforce in the corners. The straight line modes will be less effective as opening the rear wing etc, will not produce as big a drag reduction as it would at sea level.

The thin air may be relatively good news for cars that are not as aerodynamically efficient. The excess drag will not be penalised anywhere nearly as badly as at low altitude. Mechanical grip from the tyres will be very important in generating grip in the corners.

We are just going to have to watch the practice sessions to find out who will have the best package to cope best with the very unique characteristics of this circuit. It is a true outlier, and with these new power units, even more so.

2026 Mexico GP: The Weather Forecast

Record equalling high temperatures for the time of year are expected. 26-27c degrees all weekend, so it will feel hot, and the tarmac will be hot.

Development Wars

I would be surprised to see any proper upgrades this weekend, but there will be track specific parts. Ironically, for a track with long straights, the teams will want to load up on downforce. The thin air will not punish the extra drag so much on the straight, but the drivers will need to extract all the downforce they can for the corners. It is a track that demands Monaco levels of downforce, but the straight line speeds are more like Monza.

2026 Mexico GP: Team-by-Team

Mercedes

It would be a surprise if Antonelli is not crowned World Championship this weekend. It is just a matter of time and he only needs to finish 9th or better. He was excused media duties on Thursday as he was suffering with a virus. He is expected to be fine but may be feeling a bit under the weather. Exerting himself in the thin air will be difficult.

It was hard to say how good Mercedes were in Texas. Ferrari and Red Bull both failed to get the most out of their weekends. They made it easier for Antonelli than they should have. Mercedes did get more out of their recent upgrade package, which was only a matter of time.

Russell Woes

George Russell had a very poor weekend in Texas. He got a 5 second penalty, which didn’t help, but he got stuck behind a slower car, Piastri, and could do nothing about it. The team say that he was losing time in the slow corners, as was Piastri, and they got stuck in a doom loop. Clearly there is something in the car that Russell can’t cope with in slow corners. There are some slow corners here, but they are not the track’s defining feature.

The Mercedes has tended to show better deployment on long straights this season, and that should serve them well.

Ferrari

There are two ways of looking at Ferrari and their Texas upgrade. It did make the car quicker, and it was the fastest in practice, and set the fastest race lap. It was only when it mattered in Q3 that it went AWOL. The drivers blamed the track temperature falling, and the wind picking up. Team Principal Fred Vasseur wasn’t so sure, and was implying that the drivers didn’t get the most out of it.

It was quite a big upgrade, and they may get more out of it in this and upcoming races, so I am keeping them onside for now. The upgrade was partly aimed at reducing drag, but that won’t be much of an issue here. The long straights/lack of power will be.

Ferrari have had one win here since the track came back in 2015, but they are a poor relation, win wise, compared to Red Bull and Mercedes. Leclerc has never won here but has three consecutive podiums in the last three years. Hamilton has two wins, the last six years ago.

Red Bull

Now tied on 355 points with McLaren, but ahead on countback. That, despite a frustrating weekend for the team in Texas. The car had various gremlins which prevented Verstappen from challenging for the win and sending Hadjar into one of his ranting races.

The team have a very good record here, the best of all the teams racing here since 2015. Max is on a run of six consecutive podium finishes and he has four race wins here from the last eight.

Clearly, the team will need to iron out the glitches which plagued them in Texas, including fixing the radio, which has been a problem for the last two races, which is unacceptable.

The team also made a strange strategy decision in Texas, one that had not been discussed with Verstappen pre-race. The two stop plan was slower, but it didn’t cost them the race.

A race weekend with no, or fewer, niggly problems would see Max right back in the mix.

McLaren

The fizz has gone out of McLaren and while Norris drove a very good race on Sunday, he was starting from 8th place. Piastri struggled once more in slow corners. Mexico City has not been a great track for McLaren. Norris won it last year, but that car was more competitive than this year’s. Piastri has never finished better than 5th from his three starts here.

McLaren have not had a podium since the Spanish GP five races ago. Piastri has not had a podium in the last fifteen races.

On the positive side for McLaren, their draggy chassis will be more competitive in the thin air, and maybe their short wheelbase will be decent in the slower corners with less downforce generated by aerodynamics. They will be of some interest in practice to see if they will be more competitive this weekend. Norris says the car has potential but is very difficult to drive.

Racing Bulls

In a league of their own. Outside the big four, but above the midfield. Liam Lawson has scored in eleven of the last fourteen races, and while Lindblad has not scored in the last two races, he has in ten of the last thirteen. Lawson has yet to score a point here from two races, and Lindblad is making another track debut, and this one is a real outlier.

Alpine

Their season is fizzling out. They have scored one point in the last four races. That was in Texas, and Gasly was lucky that Lindblad got a five place penalty, and Hulkenberg had such a terrible start.

Gasly is pointless here in the last four years and Colapinto has failed to score from his first two races. It is hard to see that changing without a bit of luck.

Haas

Still hanging on to 7th place in the Constructors’ Championship. Their lucky double points finish in Baku really has helped them keep that place. Audi are just not able to land enough blows to close the gap. The Haas has not responded well to its upgrades and they are treading water, hoping for the best.

They had an amazing result here last year when Bearman finished 4th, and Ocon 9th. The team did enjoy an unusually good finish to the 2025 season, but they certainly are not doing so in 2026.

Audi

Still 7 points behind Haas, and they must be headbutting the walls in frustration. Four 11th place finishes in the last six races. So close, but no cigars.

I am not sure where they are regarding their turbo design. The first version of their 2026 power unit had a big, slow spooling turbo, which was like towing a caravan off the line. I believe they made it smaller under their ADUO redesign, in order to improve their starts. It obviously didn’t work that well. But a big turbo is not what you need here.

Bortoleto managed a tenth place here last year, but you have to think that another eleventh place is the most likely result.

Williams

Plumbing the depths in Texas. Only one point scored in the last twelve races. Williams are lucky that there are two, even worse teams on the grid in 2026.

Aston Martin

Went a little better in Texas, and they did score in Malaysia. Two tracks with similar characteristics, at least in parts. Alonso was running well enough last weekend, but he had a collision with another car and lost a lot of performance on the car, and it doesn’t have much to spare.

Alonso has suffered three consecutive DNFs here in the last three years. Stroll hasn’t scored here since 2017. The Honda engines used to be stronger here in the old, pre battery days, so I will have an eye out, just in case, but I’m not expecting much.

Cadillac

It is hard for the worst team to get worse, but what is the point? In the early days, they did seem to be making some progress, but they now just seem to exist to make Williams and Aston Martin look marginally less dire. I suppose stopping their brakes going on fire all the time is some kind of improvement. It is Perez’ home race, so at least he will have some things to do outside of the car.

2026 Mexico GP: Summary

This is one of the most unusual circuits in F1. The altitude, and resulting thin air, makes it very different, and a real challenge for man and machine. The layout of the track also makes for some interesting racing, especially at the front.

The starting straight is just over 0.6 km long. It is a very long run into the first corner, a 90 degree right hander, quickly followed by a left-right combination. Almost every year we get incidents in that first complex of corners.

Heavy braking, with fairly cool brakes, at the end of a flat out blast, with the cars all slip streaming, bunched up, usually means we get contacts. We see cars bailing out on to the grass and rejoining out of place, often making up places.

Then we have the spectacle of the drivers saying it wasn’t their fault, being told to give the places back and it is quite fun. There is another complex of corners at the end of the second straight, allowing for more argy bargy. After that, the lap is instantly forgettable.

Neutered?

The question is, will these new generation of power units, will the entertaining part of the lap, the first half of the lap, be neutered?

It took a while to get a handle on this track, and it hasn’t been a great one betting wise. Now, we start from scratch. Questions, questions and more questions.

How will the power units cope? How will these, lower downforce cars handle in the thin air? Is Ferrari’s turbo still small enough to produce a significant advantage? Will the high temperatures (we are expecting record breaking high temperatures), making cooling the brakes, batteries etc, overly difficult? How will the tyres work?

Hot Tyres

A high track surface (higher because of the thin air) means the surface of the tyre gets very hot. The track itself is low grip, which means more sliding, which means more heat on the tyres surface, and you have another doom loop.

Let’s just say that it is hard to go into this race with any great confidence about how things will pan out. There are hints that Ferrari may hold an advantage, that maybe McLaren could go better here, but these are teams that have a great ability to underachieve, even when they do have some advantage.

For this reason, it is not a race to be going in hard on early, with a lot of bets, or any strong bets. Watch and learn is the order of the day. Three, one hour sessions of homework, and then pull the trigger.

Max Fav

The market has Max Verstappen as the 2.50 favourite, Antonelli 2.80, Leclerc 10.00, Hamilton 12.00, Russell 17.00, Norris 19.00, Hadjar 29.00 and Piastri 34.00.

Leclerc is getting some support. He comes here on the back of two 2nd place finishes. He has finished 3/3/2 here for the last three years and the Ferrari may, and it is no more than that, have a turbo advantage. They also have an industry leading ability to screw things up.

Leclerc can be backed at 10.00 with e/w terms of 1/3 the odds 1-2, or at 9.00, with 1/5 the odds 1-3. That is a tricky call and depends on your personal attitude to risk. As it is Ferrari, I will allow a bigger window of chance to at least show a small profit. That will be my only ante post bet for this race.

2026 Mexico GP Tip: 1 point e/w Charles Leclerc to win @ 9.00 with Boylesports, Hills, Betfair, Fitzdares (1/5 odds 1-3)

-JamesPunt