2026 Brazil GP Raceday Preview

James Punt kept the powder dry for qualifying but he did point readers in the right direction. His 2026 Brazil GP Raceday preview is below.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday

After a two hour qualifying session in appalling conditions, and a plethora of grid penalties, we have the weirdest looking grid for a very long time. Norris and Antonelli are on the front row, but looking at the rest is like an acid trip.

The top two excepted, it is hard to find another driver who is not out of place. Maybe Perez in last place. This track is a good one to make up places. We have seen plenty of great drives from the back of the grid here. Verstappen won from 17th two years ago, and Hamilton won from 10th in 2021. That said, the pole sitter has won eight of the last eleven races here.

A lot of what is going to happen today, depends on the weather. If we get a dry race then we should see a good battle between the front two, and the rest of the field will find their own level. If we get more rain, things could be as mad as qualifying.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday: The Weather

So far, the long range forecast on Thursday has been just about right. It had qualifying as the most likely to see rain, and so it was. The forecast for Sunday was better, but the confidence in it lower. Now that we are just a few hours away from the race, it should be easier to get right.

The first thing to note is the big drop in temperature. We have had temperatures near 30 degrees so far and the track as hot as 55 degrees, but today it will max out at just 17 degrees. It will be cloudy, so the track is going to be cooler, as well as the air.

The forecast for lights out at 2.00pm local time is for overcast conditions with a 50% chance of showers. There is still a yellow warning for storms in place. Those conditions prevail throughout the race, with the chance of rain increasing shortly after the race is scheduled to end.

It isn’t a very helpful forecast. It might rain, it might rain a lot if we get a thunderstorm, or it could it be dry.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

Mercedes

Antonelli has been 1st, 2nd or 3rd in every session so far and while the driver starting from second place has only won one of the last eleven races here, he is right in the frame. In the dry, the Mercedes has a tenth on the McLaren, in the wet, Norris has the edge.

Russell was having a bit of a meltdown over not getting pole yesterday, even though he was getting a five place grid drop in any case. His head is away with the fairies right now. Antonelli says the car felt at its best in the dry. Any rain is likely to move the race away from him.

McLaren

Follow the upgrades has been a good mantra in 2026, and McLaren are the only team who brought any upgrades this weekend. The new parts have brough more load and grip according to Norris, and that was very useful in the wet. In the dry, Norris might win, in a wet race, he should win.

Piastri will start back in tenth position. He wasn’t on the pace in the wet and was caught out by the red flag in Q2, but he shouldn’t have been that far back to start with. It is interesting that Piastri hopes for a dry race, Norris knows that his best chance is for more rain.

Racing Bulls

Lawson was 5th in qualifying but jumps to 3rd thanks to the various penalties. He wasn’t particularly happy with his Q3 lap. He had to back off a little as he had a slowing Alonso in front. Lawson says he wouldn’t mind more rain and feels the car is good, wet or dry.

The Racing Bull is one of the easier cars to drive, and that is a good thing in difficult conditions. The team, in its various guises, have had some good results in the wet. As the best of the non-Big Four, they should be the ones ready to take advantage of any strange goings on in a wet race.

Rain Boosts Chances

In a dry race Lawson is unlikely to be able to hold on to third, but the nearest ‘faster car’ is Russell back in 7th. Piastri is in 10th, Leclerc 14th, Hamilton 20th and Verstappen 21st. Hadjar is 5th in the other Red Bull, but there isn’t much between him and Lawson at the moment. A wet, or mixed conditions race, does give him a chance of a podium.

Lindblad found it difficult in the wet and that was compounded with a problem that meant he had to stop the car. He now starts 12th. Points are still possible. The team are quite confident of a double points finish. Lindblad may lack the experience to make the most of the conditions however. He has also been given a 10 place grid penalty for taking some new power unit parts.

Audi

Hulkenberg likes his wet qualifying sessions here, but he wasn’t able to repeat his 2010 pole. He is very much out of position and what are the odds he ends up in 11th? He is a good wet weather racer, and he got his only F1 podium in a rain affected British GP last year, so you never know.

Bortoleto crashed in Q1 and broke his rear wing. That was that for the home boy. He will start a lowly 19th and with two faster cars behind him. In a mixed up wet – dry race, anything can happen and he had been going very well in practice. He too has been given a 10 place grid penalty, but he was out at the back in any case.

Red Bull

Norris and Antonelli are probably lucky that Verstappen was taking a grid penalty for a new power unit. He was very fast in the wet but decided not to run in Q2, saving tyres and mileage on his new PU. He is a great wet weather racer and has proved that in some horrible conditions here on more than one occasion.

Max has won from 17th place, so he can’t be ruled out, even from 21st on the grid, but he would likely need a bit of good fortune to come his way. It will be fun to watch him carve his way through the field. A well timed safety car, and you never know. Verstappen did say that in a wet race there is no overtake mode, so overtaking will be a bit harder than it has been in the past.

Hadjar had been struggling all weekend and his 7th place before his promotion to 5th, was just about right. He will fancy his chances of making an impression on Hulkenberg and Lawson, and in the dry probably can, but in the wet?

Haas

Bearman starts from 6th place, which is where he finished here last year. He needs a wet race to be in with a chance of staying top six. He had been going quite well in the dry, but the car is marginal top 10 at best in the dry. Bearman is quite bullish about his chances in the wet.

New boy Rafael Camara crashed out in Q2 but he had been going well enough on debut. He starts from 11th and that may be as good as it gets, unless we get a crazy race and fairytale ending. Ryo Hirakawa scored a point for Haas on his debut last week, so you never know, but he is a racing veteran.

Aston Martin

Yes really, there is an Aston Martin in the top 10. Or is it the acid kicking in? Apparently, it is real. The rain is a great leveller. The asthmatic Honda power unit is of much less importance and driver skills are more important. Clearly Alonso needs more rain to have a chance of more points, but if he gets the right conditions, he can score. Lance Stroll is usually pretty decent in the wet but he slid off in Q1. Hopefully he can make it to the grid this time round.

Williams

Sainz is usually good in the wet but he slid off twice yesterday. He now starts 12th, but Albon made the top 10 proper and now starts 9th. A wet race gives them some chance to score points, but if there are many dry spells, they are toast.

Ferrari

With two drivers at each other’s throat, you might have thought they would be given new PUs at different races, just to keep them apart. But no, Ferrari decided to give them both new ones here. At least they have ended up six places apart as Hamilton’s new PU lasted a few laps before it broke. He had to take yet another new PU and more penalties to go with it.

Leclerc qualified 4th on track but now starts 13th. The car has not been anywhere nearly as competitive as I thought they would be here, and their grid penalties have made things very difficult. Obviously, both cars will be able to make good progress, but they need the rain as the car is probably 4th best this weekend.

Alpine

“We were just too slow today” said Gasly. They had problems getting heat into the tyres, so today’s much cooler conditions are likely to be more bad news, wet or dry.

Cadillac

The really slow teams often see these wet races as a chance to get lucky. Bottas starts 18th and Perez 22nd as he took more grid penalties. Cadillac are that bad that if they were the only two cars in the race, I would find them hard to back.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday Summary

The first thing to try and do is assess the chances of rain and then what the conditions could do to affect the race. The consensus within the teams is that they are expecting more rain today. Radar showed some light rain this morning, but that has cleared away.

The forecast is for more, light, rain to arrive around 1.30pm local time. It will not last and the race start should be dry, but light rain is expected very shortly after the start, for around 30 minutes. From around 3.00pm there should be steady, light rain until the end of the race, increasing to moderate rainfall towards the end.

With the conditions being a lot cooler I would expect the chances of the really heavy rain receding. It looks more like drizzle than thunderstorms.

Rain and Drizzle

Some two hours before lights out, the forecast is as follows – Cool, with a high of 15–17°C. Mostly cloudy to overcast, with a moderate chance of a few isolated light showers and periods of light rain and drizzle throughout the afternoon. Gentle breeze with stronger gusts.

It looks like the full wets will not be required, and it may be in that slick to inters grey zone. Tricky. With much cooler temperatures and a bit of moisture around, there may be very low grip conditions. There are big run off areas all around the track, but they are largely grass. They will be very wet and once a car gets on to the wet grass, they become a boat.

It will be imperative to keep the car on the tarmac and off the kerbs and the grass. That will be beyond some drivers and it would be a miracle if we don’t get safety cars, and even the dreaded red flag.

Tricky Conditions

In tricky conditions, I tend to gravitate to the more experienced drivers. They have got the experience of mixed conditions, and many of them at this track. Maybe that moves things towards Norris.

Antonelli didn’t look quite as confident in the wet yesterday. He also has a very attacking driving style. He likes to really go for it 100%, and in mixed conditions, knowing when to be a little more cautious can pay dividends.

The oldies like Verstappen, Hamilton, Hulkenberg, Alonso and so on can perform well in changeable conditions. Norris is still young, but has a lot of experience, and is proven in the wet.

The fact that we are expecting light rain or drizzle is not ideal. It may be very marginal as to the track being dry enough for slicks, or necessary to use inters. The inters are good tyres, but they will overheat if the racing line becomes dry. I can see a lot of pitstops, with drivers toing and froing between tyres. Again, the more experienced drivers are likely to make better judgement calls than in the less experienced one.

Race Winner

We backed Lewis Hamilton ante post, but with two power unit changes, that one is in the bin, rain or not. Ferrari must be a little worried that his power unit could go pop again, and the same for Leclerc.

The pole sitter here has a good record, but I do think that Antonelli has the faster car. If the track is low grip/wet, that advantage can be wiped out. Norris is good in the wet, and the upgrades are giving him more grip. I like that for today’s forecast. It doesn’t look like the kind of torrential rain we got yesterday and it should be a less chaotic race as a result.

Antonelli is the 2.38 favourite, Norris 3.00. If you like fairy tales, Verstappen is the 7.00 third favourite. Pretty terrible odds if you ask me. Maybe if we got biblical rain, but it looks like we won’t. Russell is the 17.00 fourth favourite and its 41.00 bar those four.

I am not going to bet big in a race with unpredictable conditions, but Norris gets the nod for a modest bet.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win @ 3.00 with Livescorebet

Podium Finish

George Russell was having a bit of a hissy fit about the team telling him to abort his qualifying lap when he came upon Albon on track. The pit wall wanted him to have another go on the next lap, but the rain increased, and the chance was gone. He was getting a five place penalty in any case, so it was a fuss about very little.

But it proves that he is desperate to get some sort of result. Something to prove he hasn’t lost it. He may be able to do that today and get a podium. There is a risk that he will boil over if anything goes awry, but he is in a fast car and is out of position. If he can stay calm, the podium is up for grabs.

Liam Lawson makes some appeal at 13.00, but he loses out in terms of experience.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell to finish on the podium @ 2.50 generally available

Lawson may not make enough appeal to back for a podium, but his odds for top 6 finish are good enough. He has had three top six finishes in 2026, two in high attrition races, but he is regularly finishing in 7th place. This will be his best starting position in F1 and he might just be able to hang on to a top 6. The car is a good allrounder and one that you would like to drive in difficult conditions.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to finish in the top 6 @ 3.75 with Betfair, Skybet

Oliver Bearman has gone well here in the past and finished 6th last year, having started 8th. This year he starts from sixth. The team say that they are now getting more out of their recent upgrades and Bearman was being very positive about his chances of a good result today. He was showing decent pace in free practice and while it will be tough, he is backable at the odds.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to finish in the points @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes

For the final bet of the day I will have a go with an outsider in a group bet. Unibet/Fitzdares have Group 4 comprising off the two Alpines of Gasly and Colapinto, the Haas of Camara and the Williams of Sainz.

Alpine really struggled in the wet conditions yesterday, and in the cooler, damp conditions expected today, they may well struggle again. They line up 15th and 16th. Carlos Sainz starts 13th, Camara 11th.

Big Ask

The young Brazilian is making his debut and it is a big ask to get a good result in very difficult conditions. He crashed out yesterday and he may well do so again today. That leaves Carlos Sainz. He is usually a very good wet weather driver, and in low grip conditions.

The Williams is a dog, that has to be said, but if we do get a rain affected race, which means lower speeds, that is less important. Keeping it on the road and trying to reach the end of the race is more important.

I was a bit surprised to see Albon being the better of the two Williams in yesterday’s qualifying. He made two errors at the same corner which wasn’t like him. He said the car was feeling ‘really good’ but he went for the inters a lap too late and then got hit with the red flag and didn’t get the chance at a final run in Q2 on the quicker tyre.

“It was very frustrating but we were just unlucky”. He could well be out of position and in these conditions, the limitations of the car will not be as exposed as usual.

2026 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to win Group 4 @ 5.00 with Unibet, Fitzdares

-JamesPunt