Our F1 tipster James Punt fired in a few lovely winners before the mid-season summer break. The F1 roadshow rolls into Belgium this weekend and Spa-Francorchamps is the iconic circuit that will host the race. Will Lewis Hamilton continue his surge towards the title? Or will there be a surprise result? If you want to know what James Punt thinks you can check out his Belgian Grand Prix Tips and preview below…

BELGIAN GRAND PRIX TIPS: Ferrari Friendly Circuit

We enjoyed four great races before the summer break. Hopefully that has set the tone for the remainder of the season. Red Bull have managed to get to a point where they can challenge for race wins. Now it is up to Ferrari to get their act together and join the party.

The classic Spa-Francorchamps circuit gives the Italian team a good chance to finally get a race win in 2019. It has two sectors which are very Ferrari friendly. Straight line speed is the key in in the first and third sectors but they may well struggle a little in the middle sector which features 10 corners.

Mercedes remain the gold standard in terms of performance but no longer are they the obvious favourite. Lewis Hamilton has the Championship all but won but he will find winning the remaining races harder work than he has been used to for some time.

THREE TEAMS HAVE CHANCE OF WINNING

We now have three teams capable of winning races. Mercedes have proven to be competitive pretty much everywhere. They have had some difficult races and struggles in very hot conditions and at altitude.  The weather in Spa this weekend shouldn’t pose any problems for them in particular, but all the teams may face a bit of head scratching when setting the car up for the race.

Friday will be dry and warm; Saturday will be hot and dry but Sunday is forecast to be much cooler. The temperature on Sunday looks like being some 10 degrees cooler than Saturday. The teams will be left to guess how the tyres will behave in very different conditions from Friday and Saturday. There is also a 50% chance of some showers on Sunday.

Mercedes have dominated at Spa in the Turbo Hybrid era. They have had a car finishing 1st  in three of the five races and been 2nd in the other two. Ferrari won here last season and came 2nd and 4th in 2017. Red Bull last won in 2015, was 2nd in 2016 and 3rd last year. Past form suggests that Mercedes are the team to beat once again and Hamilton starts as the 2.62 ante post favourite.

Hamilton To Benefit from Power Unit Upgrade

His chances have been boosted by news that Mercedes will introduced their 2nd power unit upgrade of the season.  There is no grid penalty for Hamilton but there may be one for Bottas who has used up his allotted control electronics and energy store, but they may be able to use those parts from his last unit.

Hamilton has a good record here with three wins, a 2nd and three 3rd places. He has qualified on pole position four times but has also retired from four Belgian GP’s. Teammate Bottas (who will be boosted by today’s announcement that he will be at Mercedes again next season) has never fared that well here with just a 3rd place in a Williams getting him onto the podium. Max Verstappen got his only podium here last year, finishing 3rd. However, the Red Bulls have always been handicapped on this power sensitive circuit. Vettel has won three Belgian GP’s including his win last year.

Current form shows Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton both winning two of the last four races. The last one in Hungary was very close until Mercedes was able to employ a better strategy than Verstappen who had no protection from his team mate who was busy getting lapped, nor the Ferrari’s who were uncompetitive on the slow, twisty circuit. Verstappen has scored more points than anyone else in the last four races despite losing a podium place at Silverstone when he was hit by a floundering Vettel.

BELGIAN GRAND PRIX TIPS: Red Bull Narrowing The Gap

Red Bull are still down on power compared to Mercedes and Ferrari but the gap has narrowed. Honda have improved the reliability of their power units and as a result they can operate it more aggressively. They are more competitive in qualifying as they can use the party mode. They now have more power available during the race. Verstappen was competitive at Silverstone which is not unlike Spa in terms of the demands put on the cars. Both are high speed, power sensitive tracks. The Belgian was just 0.2 seconds off the pole position in Silverstone. So, we should expect to see him in the hunt for another podium.

Verstappen has made the podium in three of the last four races. His 5th in Britain was a podium lost thanks to Vettel crashing into him. He was 3rd here last year and this years Red Bull is now much nearer the pace of the Mercedes and every bit as good as if not better than Ferrari. The bookmakers seem to be underestimating the progress made by Honda and Red Bull in recent races. A small change to the front wing has helped the cars performance and the more aggressive use of the Honda power unit means that Red Bull are very close to the gold standard now.

Belgian Grand Prix Tips: 3 points Max Verstappen to finish on the podium @ 3.00 with Hills, Betfair, Paddy Power, Bet365

Belgian Grand Prix Tips: 1 point Max Verstappen to win @ 9.00 with Boylesports, Hills, Betfair, Bet365

Verstappen has a new teammate for the rest of the season. Red Bull finally realised that Gasly isn’t officer material and demoted him back to Toro Rosso. In his place comes Alex Albon, a driver with even less experience than Gasly. Albon has done a good job at Toro Rosso but not as good as Kvyat who was the obvious replacement.

Albon’s Red Bull debut will see him start from the back of the grid as Honda are introducing their Spec 4 power unit. Danill Kvyat at Toro Rosso will join him at the back for the same reason. Max Verstappen and Toro Rosso’s Gasly are expected to take the pain at Monza next week so that they will be ready to go for victory in Singapore in the following race.

Can Ferrari Deliver The Goods?

Spa has long been seen as a track where Ferrari should be very much in the fight for a win. They have the best power unit and on a power sensitive circuit that puts them in the box seat. However, Ferrari has failed to deliver on the other power sensitive circuits. Unreliability, driver error or poor strategy, whatever it took to lose their advantage, Ferrari found it. The question is not if their car will be capable but rather will the team. So far they have failed to deliver on their potential. They are now under a lot of pressure to get a win. Their home grand prix comes next weekend and going to Monza still looking for that elusive high will make it a very tough weekend.

Ferrari have not been at their best when the weather turns cold and with the mercury set to plunge on race day, perhaps that will be the reason for another missed opportunity for the Italian team.

Vettel has a good enough track record here to suggest that he can win this weekend but the reality is that he has now slipped to 4th in the drivers’ championship. Ferrari are just 44 points ahead of Red Bull in the Constructors Championship, despite Red Bull being very much a one-driver team.

BELGIAN GRAND PRIZ TIPS: Leclerc Yet to reach potential

Ferrari’s number two, Charles Leclerc has come closest to winning for Ferrari this year. He was cruising to a win in Bahrain before a mechanical problem caused him to fall back to 3rd in the dying laps. His season since then has been reasonable but marked by mistakes.

He remains inexperienced so mistakes are inevitable but it’s fair to say that Leclerc hasn’t shone as brightly as many had expected. He is still a live contender and he hasn’t made any more mistakes than Vettel. Leclerc has won here in Formula 3 and GP3 so he has some good memories of the track but he failed to finish for Sauber here last year after a collision.

That retirement in his first Belgian GP has been a common theme over the years. Of the drivers on this weekend’s grid no less than seven of them failed to finish their first GP here. We have four drivers making their F1 debut this weekend, Albon, Russell, Giovinazzi and Norris.

Alex Albon is of course making his first appearance for Red Bull as well as his first F1 race at Spa. There will be the added pressure of driving for the ‘big team’ and it will be a tough gig for a driver with just twelve grand prix under his belt on what is a very challenging circuit.  He starts from the back of the grid so he will have to do a lot of overtaking if he is to score any points. That may open him up to an accident which are not uncommon here.

Belgian Grand Prix Tips: 1 point Alex Albon NOT to finish the race @ 5.00 with Skybet

Lando Norris hurt his foot while running during the break and is suffering with an inflamed tendon. He is fit to race, but he will be in some discomfort. Carlos Sainz continues to lead the McLaren revival. He has enjoyed five top 6 finishes in the last seven races and McLaren have score six top 6 finishes in the last seven. They may find a top 6 harder to come by on a power sensitive circuit and Sainz has never really gone well here with just a 10th place in 2017 getting him any points.

The driver on the grid with the most wins at Spa is in fact Kimi Raikkonen with four. The last of those was back in 2009 but he has always been good on this track. From 13 starts he has finished in the top 10 nine times. When he has finished the race he has always finished in the top 10.

So far in 2019 he has eight top 10’s from twelve races and completed every one. His Alfa Romeo uses the powerful Ferrari power unit and Raikkonen must have a great chance to collect more points this weekend. The odds aren’t in the get rich quick department but they are too big.

Raikkonen Not A Certain Starter

There is one fly in the ointment however. Alfa Romeo have brought Marcus Ericsson to Spa for the weekend as a standby driver. Nothing has been confirmed but there seems to be some doubt as to Raikkonen taking part, at least on Friday. He pulled a leg muscle during his holiday and he is still a bit sore. He will see how things go in FP1 tomorrow but the bet will just have to be put on hold until we see if he is fully fit.

Racing Point, in its various guises, have an excellent history at Spa. When called Jordan they had their 1st ever F1 win when Damon Hill won at 66/1 back in 1998 (long time followers may remember that win with a warm feeling in the wallet).

They finished 3rd the following year. Jordan continued to score points for several years before becoming Spyker and losing their way. As Force India Giancarlo Fisichella put the car on pole position in 2009 and finished 2nd at big odds. They were 5th and 10th in 2010, 7th in 2011, 4th and 10th in 2012, 9th in 2013, 8th and 10th in 2014, 5th in 2015, 4th and 5th in 2016, 9th in 2017 and 5th and 6th last year.

This season has not been good for the team now called Racing Point. Force India had been run into the ground by the previous owner. The lack of investment meant that this year’s car was underdeveloped at the start of the season. New investment is starting to see its fruits, but their mid-season upgrade didn’t work as expected. The team is still working on improvements and getting a better understanding of the car.

Perez Has Solid Course Form In The Book

Perez has three top 5 finishes here in the last four years and it is a circuit on which the team knows what is needed to succeed. The Mexican hasn’t scored a point since the Azerbaijan GP, some nine races ago. Azerbaijan is another track on which Racing Point/Force India have gone well at in the past and hopefully the same will apply at Spa. Racing Point will benefit from Mercedes power unit upgrade which is due to be introduced this weekend.

Perez has been close to the top 10 recently. 12th three times and 11th twice in the last seven races. His claims for a top 10 can only be helped by Kvyat and Albon taking big grid penalties. His teammate, Lance Stroll, makes no secret of the fact that he is not a big fan of the circuit. If Racing Point are to pick up points, Perez looks the more likely to do it. Qualifying has been their biggest problem and there is a chance that his odds will be bigger post qualifying. However, Perez stuck it 5th on the grid in Azerbaijan and manged 8th on the grid in Germany so it looks wise to go now.

Belgian Grand Prix Tips: 3 points Sergio Perez to finish in the points @ 3.75 with BetVictor, Boylesports and Hills

The qualifying preview and race day update will be posted on the TXODDS app as usual.

-JamesPunt