2019 Russian GP Tips and Preview

Last week was a tough one for our F1 expert James Punt. Sebastian Vettel secured an unlikely victory and he was chased home by Ferrari teammate Leclerc. Unfortunately it was a struggle for our tips, but Mr Punt is back for more punishment in Sochi this weekend! Check out his 2019 Russian GP tips and preview below…

Ferrari Now Holding The Aces

We got a bit of a kicking in Singapore. I doubt anybody saw a Ferrari 1-2 finish coming, especially with Vettel winning. I doubt many people saw Red Bull going AWOL nor Mercedes losing a strategy battle to Ferrari. It truly was an incredible weekend.

Ferrari’s modified front wing, floor and diffuser combined to cure the cars inherent poor performance in slow corners. It retained its advantage in terms of power and it now is the most potent car on the grid.

The fact that Vettel won was not because he was the faster driver, rather the beneficiary of a very unusual set of circumstances. The nature of the track combined with the use of the softest tyre compound meant that the first stint of the race saw the front runners, reduced to a slow jog.

They did not want to have to pit too early and find themselves running behind slower cars on harder tyres. With overtaking so difficult in Singapore the dangers of that happening are great.

Ferrari Had The Edge On Strategy

This meant Leclerc didn’t race away into the distance and dominate the race. Rather he slowed down and bunched the field. By the time it came to cut loose and open a gap, they tyres were useless. At this point Ferrari saw the opportunity to pit Vettel and undercut Hamilton, making a Ferrari 1-2 possible. What they didn’t foresee was that the undercut would be so powerful that he ended up not only jumping Hamilton, but his teammate also.

To Vettel’s credit, his out lap was very good which helped but do not get the idea that he is back. Leclerc remains the faster driver at Ferrari.

Red Bull were expected to be battling at the front with Mercedes, but they turned up with a car that just couldn’t handle the bumpy track surface. Their car was hard to drive and slow as a result. Verstappen did well to make the podium in the end. It was a missed opportunity and almost as surprising as Ferrari’s great pace. Sochi has a much smoother track surface so they should be more competitive this weekend.  However, they face two teams with better chances on this track.

Cockiness Cost Mercedes Dearly

Mercedes where perhaps a little overconfident. They, like everyone else, didn’t see Ferrari as a contender. They saw Red Bull being the threat and decided that the best course of action was to set the car up for maximum race pace which they did judging by Friday’s long run times in practice.

Ferrari then turned up with a very effective upgrade. Suddenly Mercedes where out qualified and on the back foot. They underperformed strategically, leaving Hamilton out far too long, and they failed to get a car home in the top three.  It was an unusually poor performance by the normally sure-footed Mercedes team.

2019 Russian GP Tips: Straights In Sochi To Suit Ferrari

We now head to Sochi for the Russian GP and a track whose layout is not unlike Singapore’s Marina Bay. The conditions will be different, but the Russian circuit is another with a lot of 90 degree corners and another busy track with nineteen corners.

There is more in the way of straights here which will help Ferrari. Now that they can perform in the short, slow corners, this looks like another track where they can be expected to be fully competitive. The early weather forecast was showing a showery Friday. However the rest of the weekend is set to be sunny and dry. Temperatures could even make it  into the mid-twenties.

Hamilton Sochi Record Is Deceptive

The Sochi circuit was first used back in 2014, the same year as the turbo-hybrid power units were introduced, and Mercedes have won here every year. Lewis Hamilton has three wins, but he hasn’t been totally dominant. He has just the one pole position and his win last year was purely down to the team telling Bottas to let Hamilton past.

Hamilton has tended to struggle with teammates being quicker here. Rosberg out qualified him in 2015 but retired with a mechanical problem. Rosberg out qualified Hamilton again in 2016 and went on to win. Bottas out qualified Hamilton in 2017, behind the two Ferrari’s and the Finn went on to win with Hamilton 4th. Bottas qualified on pole here last year and was winning the race before his team ordered him to let Hamilton win.

It has been a very good venue for Bottas. He was 3rd for Williams in 2014. He qualified 3rd for Williams in 2015 but retired from the race after a late collision with Raikkonen. In 2016 he put his Williams 3rd on the grid for the third year in a row and finished 4th. He won in his first season at Mercedes and got pole and the moral victory last year. His is the best circuit form by some margin.

2019 Russian GP Tips: Bottas Could Bounce Back

Bottas’ 2019 season got off to a blistering start with two wins and three 2nd places in the first five races but in the last ten races there have been no wins and six podiums. If he is to add a win before the end of the season, this is the most likely venue.

Bottas was ordered to hold station behind Hamilton in Singapore. He was much faster than Hamilton in the latter stages but he was told to slow down and protect Hamilton from the closing Albon in the Red Bull. He is due a bit of payback from his team and not just for handing Hamilton the win here last year.

Of course, he is not just up against his teammate, the two Ferrari’s will now be the biggest threat. Vettel hasn’t done that well in Russia with two 2 ND places and a 3rd last year. He has had one pole position so it is not a bad circuit for him, but it is relatively poor compared to Bottas.

Leclerc Will Be Up For This

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari’s best chance of a win has only the one race here, a good 7th place in last year’s Sauber. What he lacks in experience he more than makes up for in talent and he will be highly motivated after losing out to Vettel last weekend.

Leclerc felt the race was stolen from him and it was but only up to a point. Ferrari were just trying to get a 1-2 finish and they employed the right tactic to do so. Leclerc’s deserved win was collateral damage. He now has the confidence to take a lead role at Ferrari and he is not going to accept a role as Vettel’s wing man. Ferrari also know they have a huge asset on their hands and will be prepared to back him rather than risk losing him.

2019 Russian GP Tips: Red Bull Sochi Struggles Could Continue

Red Bull aren’t expected to be a serious threat this weekend. They have never finished better than 5th here in the past and another may be the extent of their ability once again. To add to their problems, Honda are giving their drivers new internal combustion engines this weekend, in preparation for the upcoming Japanese GP, so Verstappen and Albon will have a 5 place grid penalty to serve.

Best of the rest is a bit harder to call. Carlos Sainz has established himself as best of the rest in the championship. He sits in 7th place and has qualified on average 9.80 TH in the last ten races. His biggest rival is often his teammate Lando Norris. The youngster lacks the consistency of Sainz, but he is improving all the time.

2019 Russian GP Tips: Renault Are Improving

The Renault duo of Ricciardo and Hulkenberg are now regular top 10 drivers in qualifying and Hulkenberg has finished in the points in the last three races and six of the last nine. Things haven’t worked out so well for Ricciardo but given a clear run he has decent potential. Neither driver has a good track record in Russia but the same can be said for many of the drivers this weekend.

Of the midfield drivers Sergio Perez is the most consistent with five top 10’s. He is having a frustrating run at the moment. Crashing in practice in Italy and in Singapore last weekend, suffering power unit failures and generally unable to have a clean weekend.

Racing Point Have Strong Sochi Form

He recovered well in Italy and very nearly did so again last week after having to take a grid penalty. He was on course for a top 10 after a difficult race when he was forced to retire. Racing Point have had a car in the top 10 here every year and a double points finish in the last two seasons.

Racing Point continue to underperform in qualifying, but they are very much in the picture for more points this weekend. Things just haven’t worked out for them in recent races but there are much better than 7th in the championship suggests. Perez will not face any grid penalty this weekend as the team was able to save his engine by pulling him out of the race in Singapore before it blew up. The car is competitive on long runs and all they need is a little less bad luck to get a decent haul of points.

Alfa Romeo have struggled a bit since the summer break, scoring just three points, all for Giovinazzi. He has benefited from problems for other drivers and doesn’t make much appeal. Raikkonen has generally been qualifying well but things haven’t worked out in the races. He is another that just needs a clean weekend in which case points are achievable.

2019 Russian GP Tips: Toro Rosso In For A Tough Weekend

Toro Rosso have never enjoyed much success here in the past. It is Kvyats home race and while he did finish 5th for Red Bull in 2015, that has been his only top 10. The Russian had a messy, disappointing weekend in Singapore, and he will do well to add any points in his home race. Gasly was the better of the two Toro Rosso drivers in Singapore but like Kvyat, this might well be a tough weekend.

As with Red Bull, Honda are giving both drivers new power unit upgrades. Gasly gets a new internal combustion unit and a 5 place grid penalty. However, Kvyat needs an entirely new power unit and will have to start his home race from the back of the grid.

Haas have only scored points in one of the last nine races and that was in the rain affected German GP. They have picked up three top 10’s here in the past but this season has turned out to be a waste of time and money for the team.

Williams’ Good Fortune is Our Loss

Williams will be celebrating keeping the point they were awarded in the German GP after the Haas appeal was rejected by the FIA this week. Sadly, that knackers our 10 point bet on Williams not to score a point in 2019. It is a hard one to swallow as Kubica did not finish in the points, but the time penalties handed down to the two Haas cars meant he was promoted to 10th.

It is a new way to lose a bet, but the Williams was and remains a basket case and it required six other cars to retire and two more to be ruled out of the points for them to ‘score’ a point. Barring another freak race, they will not be adding to their tally.

There looks to be very little in the way of value for a points finish or top 6 betting. Perez has been much improved in the Racing Point despite his demise in last weeks race. He has performed well here in the past and if he can have trouble free practice sessions, he should be scoring more points come Sunday.

His odds are 1.83, considerably shorter than he has been in recent races. He can be backed at 7.50 for a top 6 finish but that may be too ambitious. His two top 6 finishes this season have come at high speed, power sensitive circuits of which this is not one.

No Value In Backing Sainz

Carlos Sainz has scored the most top 6’s outside of the big six (5) but odds of 2.62 offer no value. This is not a race with a great history of surprises and seeing Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull filling the top 6 places would not be a great surprise.

This looks to be a race were holding fire until after qualifying, or at least free practice may be wise. The weather forecast has been changing in the last day or two. Friday is now looking dry in the morning with some afternoon showers, Saturday is now forecast to have light showers on and off over the day but Sunday still looks dry for the race.

Tough Race To Read

This is a hard race to be very confident about. Last weekends performance by Ferrari has thrown in a huge curve ball. They were an easy team to read. Very strong on power sensitive circuits but weak in slow corners. Now they look to be a match for Mercedes in slow corners but faster on the straights. That should make them favourite here and probably almost everywhere.

However, Singapore is a very unusual circuit. A bumpy street circuit full of corners, very warm conditions and under floodlights. As a form guide it is of limited use. That said, the demands of the Sochi circuit are not dissimilar to Singapore.

They both have a lot of slow corners being the big common feature. There are a few buts of course. The conditions will be cooler, the tyres of harder compounds and the track is smooth and with some decent straights. It appears to be a good track for Ferrari if they really have solved their slow corner weakness.

2019 Russian GP Tips: Ferrari Firmly In The Driving Seat

On current form Ferrari are the team to beat. They have been on pole position for the last three races and won them all. That is impossible to ignore. Yes, the wins at Spa and Monza were predictable as they are power sensitive circuits, but last weekend’s win was on a track on which they were expected to struggle.

Charles Leclerc has qualified on pole for the last three races, won two of them and controversially was second in the other. Leclerc is the form driver in the form car. So, he is the favourite? No, that honour goes to Lewis Hamilton.

Hamilton has three wins and one pole position at Sochi. His win last year was a gift that he didn’t earn. Hamilton has struggled against his teammates in Russia. It is not his strongest track; he hasn’t won a race since the summer break and has had one pole position in the last seven races.

His recent form does not measure up to that of Charles Leclerc. Hamilton is in a Mercedes of course and they have won all five races here. They always had the best car for the last five years…..but that may no longer be the case.

Bottas Has Best Track Form

Valtteri Bottas is also in a Mercedes and his track record is arguably the best in the field. He performed very well when he was at Williams. Yes, the team was more competitive in those days, but his performances were better than the cars ability.

If there is one circuit where you had to back him over Hamilton, this is it. However, his form is poor in comparison to Leclerc and Hamilton. Bottas has not won a race since the end of April and his last pole position was six races ago.

We have a form driver in the form car as the 3.25 second favourite. We have the champion elect as the 2.88 favourite, and we have the track specialist as the 7.00 4th favourite.

Hamilton looks poor value at 2.88. His performances here against his teammates, the only effective opposition for the last five years, have not been great. He now faces another threat in the shape of Ferrari.

2019 Russian GP Tips: Bottas The Value Bet

Charles Leclerc is on a charge. He is in top form and Ferrari seem to have finally sorted out their car’s weakness. I am a little surprised to not to see him as the favourite. However, bookmakers historically take a little time to realise that there has been a big change in the pecking order. They are so used to chalking Hamilton as the favourite that they just can’t bring themselves not to.

Bottas makes plenty of appeal at much bigger odds. His most recent form isn’t as good as Leclerc or Hamilton but like both those drivers he has scored four pole positions this season and is more than proven over the course and distance.

My head is saying Leclerc, but it is also seeing good value in Bottas. This is a race were most bets will be placed after qualifying when we have a better idea of who is doing what but for now, I will have two small bets on the value selection.

2019 Russian GP Tips: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to be the fastest qualifier @ 11.00 with Betvictor, William Hill

2019 Russian GP Tips: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to win the Russian GP @ 7.00 with Sportingbet, Unibet, Black Type

Make sure to download the TXODDS app for qualifying and race day updates.

-JamesPunt