It still feels like it was only yesterday that Peter Wright lifted the World Championship. He continued in the same vein in the Masters last weekend, beating Michael Smith in the decider. This Thursday the Premier League returns and Aberdeen hosts the first round of matches. James Punt has written an in depth preview, check out his 2020 Premier League darts tips below…

2020 Premier League Darts Preview

The 16th Premier League of Darts kicks off in Aberdeen on 6th February, the first of fifteen weeks and sixteen rounds, finally concluding on finals night in London on the 21st May. Arguably it is just too long and watching the same nine players, plus the nine ‘Challengers’ making their one-off appearances, gets pretty stale towards the end.

The fact that it is something of a benevolent fund for Michael van Gerwen’s bank account doesn’t help. MVG has played in seven Premier Leagues and he has won five and been runner up in the other two. There have only been five different winners of the Premier League. Phil Taylor (6), Michael van Gerwen (5), Gary Anderson (2), James Wade (1) and Raymond van Barneveld (1). All but one, James Wade, was or went on to be World Champion. It is no surprise that over a long period of league matches, the best players end up at the top.

2020 Premier League darts: Stacked Field

We have five World Champions in the field this year, MVG, Gary Anderson, Rob Cross, Peter Wright and Glen Durrant, albeit his are all BDO titles. We have the top 8 players on the order of merit plus Glen Durrant who is the world number22. His ranking money has been accrued in just one year as opposed to two years for the other eight. He is ranked tenth on the pro tour OOM which is more realistic as to his true standing.

Glen Durrant and Nathan Aspinall are the two debutants, but both featured as ‘contenders’ last year, Durrant losing 3-7 to Daryl Gurney and Aspinall 2-7 to Michael Smith.

The idea of having Contenders was a result of Gary Anderson withdrawing at short notice last year. The PDC decided to invite nine different players to take his place, each playing one match and the different venues before the traditional mid-season cut where the bottom two are eliminated. It was not universally liked, and it does make the playing field a little less level.

2020 Premier League darts: Henderson The First Contender

Nobody was relishing facing John Henderson in Aberdeen after his reception there last year when he drew with MVG in an epic match. This year it is Nathan Aspinall who has drawn the short straw in Aberdeen. That is a very tough start for the debutant and while there are no easy matches in the Premier League, he may have rather faced Luke Humphries in Exeter or O’Connor in Dublin for example.

The Contenders have been selected on the basis of being local players at their allotted venues. It is an exercise in selling tickets to what is in effect a series glorified exhibition nights.

Sherrock To Make Debut

We also have Fallon Sherrock as a Challenger. She was picked while making the third round of the World Championship was front page news. The fact remains that she doesn’t have a tour card, and she is dinning out on beating Ted Evetts and Mensur Suljovic. Sherrock couldn’t repeat the feat at Q school but what we saw at Ally Pally is that the crowd was 100% on her side and that made it very difficult for her opponents.

No doubt that will be the case when she takes to the stage in Nottingham to face debutant, Glen Durrant. Sherrock has now also qualified for the UK Open by winning the Rileys qualifier. That is a hard slog and there were ex tour card holders in the field, but it is not a proper pro tour qualifier.

The Other Challengers are Luke Humphries, Stephen Bunting, Chris Dobey, William O’Connor, Jonny Clayton, Jeffery de Zwann and Jermaine Wattimena.

2020 Premier League Darts: The Players

Michael van Gerwen – W/RU/RU/W/W/W/W. Odds – 2.10

The very clear favourite for very clear reasons. Van Gerwen remains the best player in the world and by some margin. His record in the PL is excellent and with a league format, he can lose matches but still win the tournament. Given that he has won five from seven PL titles, his odds of 2.00 are generous. Van Gerwen has only once topped the most 180’s table. In the league stage of the PL he has played 112 matches and won 74.

He followed up his loss the Peter Wright in the world championship by losing his first-round match on the Masters to Jonny Clayton. He certainly played very poorly in that match and it will be interesting to see how long it takes before he backs back up to speed with his new darts.

Peter Wright – 5/9/5/RU/7/8. Odds – 7.00

As the new World Champion and number 2 seed, Wright is a short price for a tournament in which he doesn’t have a great record in. He did reach the final in 2017 and missed multiple match darts to win the title. That was against MVG and he did have a problem when facing MVG in big finals. However, he gave Van Gerwen a bit of a doing in the World Championship final on New Years Day and it will be interesting to see if that has changed his mind set if he faces Van Gerwen in another final.

Outside of that run to the final, Wright has never made the play offs and perhaps his constant tinkering with equipment isn’t compatible with a long, league format. Wright has played 89 league matches and won just 28.

He is riding the crest of a wave right now with his world championship backed up with an impressive performance to win the Masters at the weekend, but this is a long tournament and it is unlikely he will keep it up for three months.

Gerwyn Price – 10/5. Odds 8.00

Price looked like ending 2019 as the world number 2 but he was usurped by Peter Wright. There is no doubt that Price had the better 2019 season, but such is the weight of money won at Ally Pally, Wright leap frogged him. That is where the world rankings are not perfect indicators of performance. In my book, Price is the second-best player in the world based on last years form.

Price had a nightmare in his debut PL season, finishing in last place and failing to win a single match. He hated the whole experience but to his credit, he bounced back, improved his game, came fifth last year and is now a permanent presence at the business end of big tournaments.

Can Price Silence The Boo Boys

He had to put up with the boo boys last season and to get fifth place under those conditions was a great credit to him. Some fans are beginning to realise that Price is a great player and according him some respect, but this is the Premier League. The audience aren’t connoisseurs of the sport, they are looking for a good night out on the lash. They need heroes and villains and sadly for Price, he will still be the villain.

The schedule for the first phase of the league looks to be quite good for Price. He is likely to be favourite to win each of his opening five matches. That doesn’t mean he wins them all, but he should get a few early wins under his belt which is so important to take the pressure off. His PL record is poor, played 25 and won just 6, but those six wins all came last year.

Rob Cross – SF/RU. Odds – 13.00

Cross has a good tournament record, reaching the play offs in both his previous PL appearances. Clearly, he is very much at home on the big stages. What is a bit worrying was his form at the end of 2019. His throw was off, and he suffered some heavy defeats to the likes of Peter Wright, Merv King and even Kim Huybrechts. If that problem persists then he is going to be in bother but with a long break since his early exit at Ally Pally, he will have had plenty of time to work on his throw.

His odds are now getting more realistic after a couple of years where they were too short on most occasions. He makes some e/w appeal given his record. His league record is played 32 and won 18.

He lost his first-round match at the Masters and while that isn’t a disaster in itself, it is worrying that his poor form of late 2019 was still there. He has lost 30 pounds in weight since that world championship defeat, which is quite drastic. We have seen large weight reductions not helping players performance in the past, think slim Phil Taylor and how badly that went. Is his head in the right place?

Michael Smith – 10/-/RU/7. Odds 23.00

Smith is now ranked as the fifth best player in the world despite never winning a televised major. This will be his tenth season in the PDC and while he has won a lot of money, it is his lack of any big titles which stands out. He was runner up in the 2019 World Championship, runner up in the World Matchplay, semi-finalist in the European Championship, UK Open and Champions League. That is a lot of matches won, a lot of money won but is he value to win tournaments? No. He missed more darts to break the curse at the weekend, reaching the final of the Masters, only to once again fall at the final fence.

‘What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger’ is often trotted out at times like that. Rubbish. ‘If you keep on failing in the same fashion, it will destroy you’, is much more likely to be the case. Smith has had 12 darts to win TV titles and he has only hit one, and that was the Shanghai Masters, not a major title and the weakest of the World Series events.

Maybe this will be the year, it has to happen soon, he is the best player never to have won a major and so on. How many chances do you give him? Will he finally do it or will he be another Dave Chisnall? Smith has played 41 league matches and won just 13.

Gary Anderson – W/8/10/SF/W/SF/SF/SF/WD. Odds – 13.00

Two-time PL winner Anderson has a good tournament record. As one of the very best players in the world you would expect nothing less. However, it is the last entry in that form timeline which sounds alarm bells. He was forced to withdraw from last year’s PL due to ongoing back problems. Are the PDC taking a risk on his fitness in 2020? What happens if he has to drop out after a few weeks?

Yes, he was playing more regularly at the end of 2019 but playing in the PL is a very different proposition. Playing at a different venue, all over the UK and Europe every Thursday for 16 weeks (if he makes the cut) is a gruelling schedule. There will be plenty of travelling, hotel beds, flights and so on and he will have to practice. All that will test his back, more than anything he has done for a while now.

2020 Premier League Darts: Fitness Key For The Flying Scotsman

If he can remain fit and motivated then he can make the play offs, but you are taking not just a taking a bet of his standard of play, but his fitness. Over this very long format that is just too risky given odds of 13.00. Anderson has played a massive 117 league matches and won 64.

He warmed up by reaching the semi-final of the Masters at the weekend. He played well to beat Ian White, very well to beat Gerwyn Price but was bit flat when losing 7-10 to Peter Wright. The good performances are still there, the consistency is lacking. He is still ‘getting there’ but the question is, will the regular play complete his journey, or will that journey just be too much for his body to endure?

Daryl Gurney – 5/4. Odds – 29.00.

It is surprising to see Daryl Gurney as the joint outsider in this year’s tournament. He has acquitted himself well in his two previous PL appearances, finishing fifth on debut and making the semi-finals last year.  He hit the most 180’s in 2018 and while he struggled to win matches that year, he was very hard to beat, and he lost fewer matches than anyone else bar MVG. Last year only MVG and Rob Cross won more matches than Gurney.

Gurney is a player who plays to a high standard even when he is not at his best. He can average in the mid to high 90’s on a very regular basis which is why he is hard to beat and when he hits top form, he can beat anyone.

What is not in his favour is the schedule of his opponents in the first phase. He faces Anderson on the opening night in Aberdeen, so he has the crowd against him. The Scots crowd don’t like Gurney very much due to his good record against ‘their man’, so he will get a rough ride. Week two he faces MVG, week three Gerwyn Price ….in Cardiff. He will do well to get a couple of points out of that lot and that means the pressure will be on early doors.

The odds for Gurney are attractive, but it may be wise to wait until after those opening three weeks and see the lie of the land then. He has played 32 league stage matches and won 12.

Nathan Aspinall – Debut. Odds – 21.00

Gary Anderson and MVG both won the title in their debut year but for mere mortals, the PL takes a bit of getting used to. Aspinall is very good but not quite at the same level as those two greats, not yet any way. Aspinall did get a taste of the PL last year but put in one of his worst performances of the season when getting thumped 2-7 by a not very good Michael Smith. Trying too hard? Maybe but whatever it was, he faces a steep learning curve. The rigours of the PL can take players by surprise, destroying some players even.

Aspinall is too good to get destroyed but looking at his opponents, he faces some very tough opening matches and his confidence could take a knock unless he gets a few points on the board early.

Glen Durrant – Debut. Odds – 29.00

Durrant will be the oldest PL debutante at 49 years old and this will be another new experience for him. He did get a taste of it last year in Glasgow, but he faced an on-fire Daryl Gurney and lost 3-7. He has learned a lot about life as a top PDC player since then and has thrived on the big stages, winning over £225000 in his first season. In the last quarter of 2019, his win rate was up to 68% and while it will not be possible to maintain that rate against this group of elite players week in, week out, he should be in contention for the play offs.

2020 Premier League Darts: Recommended selections

It is very hard to get away from Michael van Gerwen. He has reached the final of all seven Premier Leagues he has played in, losing in two, one to Raymond van Barneveld in 2014 and the other to Gary Anderson in 2015. RVB averaged 102 in the final, Anderson 105, so it will take something special to deny him title number six.

His very lacklustre performance when losing to Jonny Clayton at the Masters was not very encouraging but he does lose matches, he does put in the odd poor performance. He has plenty of time to rectify that and the only big threats are that he really can’t play with his new darts, which is unlikely, or that he has some off the oche problems which distract him.

MVG Can Overcome Tough Start

I suspect he may have a slightly wobbly start to the tournament but still make his way into the final. He faces Peter Wright in the first round, in Aberdeen. Wright has never been the Scottish fans favourite, that honour goes to Saint Gary of Anderson, but now that Wright is World Champion, I suspect he will be perceived and being as Scottish as mince and tatties.

Daryl Gurney is a potential banana skin in Nottingham and then MVG gets Nathan Aspinall in Cardiff, and the Asp likes playing MVG. After that, his matches look much more straight forward.

2020 Premier League Darts: 5 points Michael van Gerwen to win the Premier League @ 2.10 with William Hill, Boylesports

 

2020 Premier League Darts: Alternative Markets

There are a number of side markets worth a look at. To hit the most 180’s is much more open than the outright market. Van Gerwen may have dominated the League, but only once has he hit the most maximums. For all his brilliance, he isn’t the biggest 180 hitter.

In the Player’s Championship qualifiers in 2019 the 180 per leg ratio amongst this years PL competitors was as follows:

180 Per Leg Ratio Players’ Championship 2019

1. Peter Wright – 0.360
2. Rob Cross – 0.309
3. Gary Anderson – 0.306
4. Michael Smith – 0.302
5. Daryl Gurney – 0.298
6. Gerwyn Price – 0.278
7. Michael van Gerwyn – 0.275
8. Nathan Aspinall – 0.238
9. Glen Durrant – 0.246

While the players that have finished first and second in the league have accounted for seven of the thirteen most 180’s markets, fifth, sixth and seventh placed players have accounted for five. Making the cut is imperative of course, but anyone that plays the 16 matches is in with a chance.

Michael van Gerwen is as short as the 2.30 favourite to have the most 180’s despite only achieving that feat once and not being the most prodigious maximum hitter. Of the players in the league this year only MVG (2016), Anderson (2011), Gurney (2018) and Smith (2019) have won the most 180 market. MVG can be backed at 6.50 to have the most 180’s at the half way point with Betfred, which is a bit more realistic.

2020 Premier League darts: Snakebite Loves The Red Bit

Peter Wright was the best maximum hitter on the floor in 2019 and he also hit the most 180’s at the World Championship’s, by some margin. He might not have the best PL record, but he really should make the cut and play all 16 matches before the play-offs.

Wright may not have a stellar tournament record, but it would be a huge shock if he missed the half-way cut. If he keeps this rich vein of form going, then he may well make the play offs but even if he doesn’t, he could ‘do a Gurney’ and hit the most 180’s comfortably with just the 16 matches played.

Rob Cross has been fourth and second in the 180’s market for the last two years. He is a fairly prolific max hitter and must be in contention once again, even if his recent form isn’t great.

Can Price Pound The Treble?

Gerwyn Price hit the second most 180’s in last year’s PL and he should be in with a chance again. Michael Smith topped the 180 table last year but I am wary of his form right now. That missed opportunity to win his first big TV title at the weekend will have set him back just at the wrong time.

Daryl Gurney is priced at 17.00 which seems on the generous side. He had the most 180’s in 2018 and was fourth last year. Superchin may have lost some of his prowess on the maximums but is still one of the top players in this area. He is another player who really should make the cut and when he gets his eye in, he can bang in a lot of 180’s in a single match.

Certainly, the value doesn’t lie with MVG at a best priced 4.00. Peter Wright (6.00), Rob Cross (12.00) and Daryl Gurney (17.00) look much more interesting.

2020 Premier League Darts: 1 point Peter Wright to have the most 180’s @ 6.00 with Skybet, Betfair, Paddy Power

2020 Premier League Darts: 0.5 point e/w (1/3 the odds 1-2) Daryl Gurney to have the most 180’s @ 17.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power

 

2020 Premier League Darts: Who Will Take The Wooden Spoon?

To finish last is another interesting market. Only one player will suffer the ignominy of not making the cut after nine rounds. Last year Van Barneveld was the obvious candidate as he was mentally retired before he started. Gerwyn Price finished bottom in 2018 on debut. In the last ten seasons, where there have been debutants in the field, a debutante has finished last on five occasions.  

Gary Anderson has the dubious record, along with Wayne Mardle and Kim Huybrechts, of finishing last on two occasions. He should be far too good for that to happen again……unless his body breaks down in which case he may well be in contention once again.

The two debutantes, Aspinall and Durrant, have to be considered as, quite naturally, playing in this huge event, in front of huge crowds combined with relentless travelling, is a new and very testing experience.

Strong Field

It must be said that this year there are no standout candidates to finish last. It is a very strong field. Daryl Gurney and Durrant are varying for market favouritism to finish last. With Gurney finishing 5^th and 4^th in his two previous PL’s, that seems very short. Durrant is too good a grinder to get flattened in this format. Age and experience are against him but he seems to thrive in the big events so he should make it through.

Slimmer’s world champion, Rob Cross has a great record but starts the tournament out of form. He has a run of very tough opening matches, so the pressure is on early but surely he is too good to be the only one to miss the cut?

The best gamble, and it is just that, is Gary Anderson to finish last. If his body fails to endure the physical test of the first few opening weeks, he is in trouble. If he stays fit, then he should make it but at the odds he is worth a modest punt.

1 point Gary Anderson to be relegated @ 11.00 with William Hill

2020 Premier League Darts: Who Can Make The Semis

To make the semi-finals is another popular market. Last year we got Wade and Gurney to do so at nice prices, but it looks bit trickier this year as they are no obvious weak links, no players easy to write off, narrowing the field.

MVG is just 1.10 to make it eight in a row. Peter Wright is 1.62 despite only doing it once from six previous attempts. Gerwen Price is 1.67 despite winning just 6 PL matches.

Rob Cross is two from two in terms of semi-finals made. He is struggling for form right now, but he can still get off to a slow start and make it through, so long as he hasn’t somehow lost it completely. He is a 2.50 shot which makes some appeal.

Duzza Can Dazzle

Perhaps the best value is Glen Durrant at 4.50. Yes, this is his debut in the tournament, but the fact remains that he was very good in the major events in his PDC debut season. Three major semi-finals and a World Championship quarter final suggests that he is far from phased by big events or big crowds. The fans like him which helps, and he has two winnable matches to kick off his league campaign.

2020 Premier League Darts: 1 point Glen Durrant to make the semi-finals @ 4.50 with William Hill

-JamesPunt