2020 Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter by Dave Stevos

The Champion Hurdle field is now down to just 19 and most of the no hopers have been scratched. It looks like being a big field this year, a nice development for each way value hunters. Dave Stevos has looked at some recent Champion Hurdle trends and statistics and he will use them to narrow the field and hopefully find the winner. He managed to find 2 of the first 4 home in the 2019 Stayers’ Hurdle and surprisingly, It didn’t take too many stats to narrow the field for this year’s Champion Hurdle. Check out the 2020 Champion Hurdle Stats that matter below…

Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter: Age

In the last 10 runnings of the Champion Hurdle the only 5yo to win was Espoir D’Allen last year. Since 2010 3 x 6yos, 4 x 7yos, 1x 8yo and 1x 9yo have won this race. That suggests that it might pay to focus on the 6yos and 7yos in the race. Favourite backers will be delighted to hear that Epatante gets over the first hurdle. However, the well fancied 5yo Pentland Hills is not so lucky. Other young horses that miss out include Couer Sublime (16/1) and Fusil Raffles (16/1).

At the other end of the age spectrum there are another couple of high profile casualties. Supasundae is a 10yo and only two horses of that age or older have won this race. Sea Pigeon and Hatton’s Grace, who both won at 10yo and 11yo. The 9yo Petit Mouchoir is also discounted, as is Ballyandy (who I actually think could go well if it is soft or heavy). Others to fall by the wayside at this stage include Verdana Blue, Not So Sleepy, La Patriote, Darver Star and Cilaos Emery.

The Stats That Matter: Previous Course Form

That just leaves seven horses remaining and the next stat we will use to narrow the field is previous course form. 10 of the last dozen winners of the Champion Hurdle had at least one previous run at Cheltenham. Epatante again dodges a bullet here but her previous run at Cheltenham was far from convincing. However, the stats say that she avoids the chop. Sharjah had no luck when brought down in this last season but he at least has festival experience.

Outsider Cornerstone Lad is the one to miss out here. He is ultra consistent over hurdles but none of his 14 starts over timber came at Cheltenham. 50/1 shot Darasso is also eliminated at this stage, but the Philp Hobbs trained Gumball manages to sneak through. So, at the end of that we are only left with five horses. All that is left to do is pick out the most likely winner!

2020 Champion Hurdle Stats: The Verdict

So, we have whittled the field down to five possible winners and Epatante is the one the bookies like. However, her run here behind Eglantine Du Seuil worries me and while she was impressive last time, that was on a flat track. She had 5L to spare over Silver Streak that day and at the prices, I would much prefer to be on the Evan Williams horse. Especially if the ground continues to dry out.

Gumball will run his heart out like he normally does (if he runs) but he is surely going to come up short. If Sharjah gets good ground he has the class to play a big part. The last time he had good in the ground description he easily beat Supasundae by over 3L and he was unluckily brought down in this last year. Very soft ground would blunt his chances though. I am not sure what to make of Call Me Lord. He has form over all sorts of trips and his win over Ballyandy is decent in the context of this race.

To sum up, from a betting perspective the ones to be most interested in are Silver Streak, Sharjah and Call Me Lord. Epatante does not appeal one bit at the prices and for me, Silver Streak is the most overpriced of them all. Just like Sharjah he would prefer a sounder surface and if it came up bottomless, Call Me Lord would represent good value. The forecast isn’t too bad though and hopefully the sun shines for our  top two 2020 Champion Hurdle stats that matter selections.

2020 Champion Hurdle Stats Prediction

1. Silver Streak (25/1).
2. Sharjah (14/1).
3. Call Me Lord (20/1).
4. Epatante (7/2).