Newmarket Saturday Tips and Preview

We returned to action with more of a whimper than a bang on Friday. Open Wide got us off to a stinking start, drifting before the off and running accordingly. To make things worse his stablemate hosed up at 40s! Mr Lupton looked rusty and never landed a blow. Dawaam was never travelling either and folded tamely without getting involved. Anthony Van Dyck at least ran well, though Ryan Moore foolishly gave the favourite far too much rope in front. A strong tailwind looks likely again tomorrow so prominent racers will be at an advantage. You can check out Dave Stevos Newmarket Saturday tips, including his 2000 Guineas preview, below…

Newmarket Preview: 1.50pm – Palace House Stakes (Group 2)

The opening live ITV race at Newmarket is the 5f Group 2 Palace House Stakes. A maximum field of 12 go to post and it is wide open. This is reflected in the market where Far Above is an uneasy favourite at around 7/2. This will be his first start at 5f but James Tate describes him as one the fastest he has trained so that shouldn’t be an issue. He is a two time course winner at 7f and given the success of front runners on Friday he won’t be far off the early pace.

I am a big Major Jumbo fan and he is another prominent racer who prefers to make all. He was a solid 3rd in this last year behind Mabs Cross but he would like a drop of rain. The one I like at a big price is Arecibo. Trained by in form David O’Meara (two 2nds from 4 runners yesterday), this son of Invincible Spirit has bags of pace. He was up with the pace and on the bridle for a long way in the Portland where he was beat a length into 4th by Oxted off level weights.

That horse reappeared here yesterday and hosed up in the Abernant. It will be good to firm at Newmarket, just like it was for the Portland. That is the type of surface Arecibo relishes. Kieran Shoemark rides and while he has yet to ride a winner for O’Meara, he has 3 top 4 finishes from just 5 rides for him. Arecibo will like the ground and he can race up with the pace. At odds of 20/1 he is the each way selection.

NEWMARKET SATURDAY TIPS: ARECIBO E/W @ 20/1 4 places NAP

Newmarket Tips: 2.25pm – Dahlia Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2)

Disappointingly, only 7 fillies will line up at the start for this 10f Group 2. Terebellum is the favourite for newly reunited Godolphin and Frankie (John Gosden trains). She has only ever run over 10f and she is 2/4. Those wins came on soft and good and it will be interesting to see how she handles quicker ground. Magic Lily represents the same owners but is trained by Charlie Appleby. William Buick will take the ride and a repeat of her 2nd to Barney Roy would give her a squeak.

Most of the fillies in this race like to be ridden in mid div or held up so it could get messy. It might be a chance for an enterprising jockey to nick a soft lead early on, like we saw in a couple of races here on Friday. One horse that has a bit of form racing prominently is Eva Maria. Trained by Richard Fahey, this filly is a previous C&D winner on good to soft and she has won on good too. She ran well on good to firm on debut and she is very consistent on turf.

The daughter of Sea The Stars was well beat on her final start of last season but that was on the all-weather. Before that run, her form figures since her debut 3rd at Thirsk read 1211 and the last two wins came at today’s 10f trip. She is very well bred, being a half sister to James Garfield, and there could be more improvement to come back on quick ground. A rating of 92 leaves her with lots to find with the principals but this could get tactical. Hopefully, Callum Shepherd can come up with a plan and at odds of 20/1 she is worth a small punt e/w.

NEWMARKET SATURDAY RACING TIPS: EVA MARIA E/W @ 20/1

Newmarket Preview: 3.00pm – Newmarket Stakes (Listed)

The one I like in this Listed contest is Cherokee Trail for Gosden, Moore and Coolmore. This son of War Front is 2/2 on good to firm ground at 7f. He made all on the second occasion and while his last two runs were poor, he had excuses. The ground was soft when he stepped into Group 3 company, while the dirt didn’t play to his strengths in Saudi.

The return to a sounder surface is a huge plus for this horse but the question is will he stay this 10f trip. There are mixed messages in his pedigree, but his dam is related to a trio of winners from 10f to 12f so hopefully he has inherited some of that stamina. None of the top 6 in the betting have form on good to firm so at odds of 28/1 a small each way bet on Cherokee Trail is advised.

NEWMARKET SATURDAY TIPS: CHEROKEE TRAIL E/W @ 28/1

Newmarket Saturday Tips: 3.35pm – 2000 Guineas (Group 1)

The 2000 Guineas is all about one horse this year, the mighty Pinatubo. This son of Shamardal was spectacular as a 2yo and I witnessed his Curragh win in the flesh. He absolutely demolished a quality field on good ground that day, scoring by 9L.  He wasn’t visually as impressive here in the Dewhurst on his last start, but that was on soft ground. Charlie Appleby’s charge was 9L ahead of Arizona at the Curragh and the runner up closed the gap to 2L at Newmarket. However, back on better ground it is tough to see him getting any closer today.

If Pinatubo has trained on who knows what he could go on to achieve this year. Charlie Appleby says he isn’t the best of workers at home and that is often a good sign. Those type of horses save their best for the big day and Pinatubo has answered every question asked of him so far on the track. He will probably have all the answers again tomorrow and he looks a very worthy favourite at 5/6.

Dornoch Could Surprise For Ballydoyle

Aidan O’Brien runs four here and for once, he hasn’t got the favourite. On 2yo form Arizona is the only horse here with a chance of beating the favourite. He pushed him hard in the Dewhurst but was still 2L behind and that was on soft. When they met on good the gap was 9L and it could well be a similar story at Newmarket. Ryan Moore keeps the faith though and he should run a solid race.

Wichita was a further 2L behind Arizona in the Dewhurst and his only other Newmarket run resulted in victory (7f gd). He made all that day and given how Friday went, connections will likely employ similar tactics here. Frankie takes the ride and he could sneak into the money. Royal Dornoch beat Kameko on his final start here last season and on that form 40/1 looks big. This could be a nice spare ride for Tom Marquand and if they go off like the clappers up front he could pick up the pieces.

Best Of The Rest

Kameko scored in the Vertem Futurity at Newcastle on his final start of last season. He is a consistent sort who is proven at the trip and on the ground. His trainer Andrew Balding is in scorching form and Oisin Murphy is riding with confidence. However, given how closely his form ties in with Royal Dornoch, at the prices I prefer the Ballydoyle horse.

Of the remainder, Kenzai Warrior could run a big race but his best run came on heavy last season. Mums Tipple represents Richard Hannon and he is a fascinating contender. His spectacular performance at York last season remains fresh in the mind and he was lame after his final start so he can be excused that. With a strong tailwind likely this horse will go off like a rocket and if he is going to stay a mile this could be his best chance. At odds of 40/1 he will most definitely give each way backers a bit of excitement given his style.

tHE VERDICT

Pinatubo is the clear form pick here. He was the best 2yo of his generation and I hope he wins this handsomely. I won’t be backing him at odds on though and with extra places available I am backing two horses each way. Front runners made hay on Friday and Mums Tipple could make a bold bid. Stamina is obviously a big worry but with the wind at his back and on rattling quick ground he won’t have many better opportunities to get a mile in a top class race. At 40/1 a small each way interest is advised.

My other each way selection is Royal Dornoch. Although on jockey bookings he looks the third string, Coolmore will be desperate to get a classic win into his sire Gleneagles. He has already beaten Kameko on good ground over C&D yet he is four times the price of that rival. 40/1 is available for 3 places but I am advising an each way bet at 33/1 for 4 places with Bet365.

 NEWMARKET SATURDAY TIPS: MUMS TIPPLE E/W @ 40/1; ROYAL DORNOCH NB E/W @ 33/1 (BOTH 4 PLACES)