Saturday ITV Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos
Saturday ITV Tips From Haydock, Kempton and Ascot
We had to make do without a winner on Sunday but it wasn’t a bad day overall. Point In Time was unruly at the stalls and was withdrawn before the start. Woven ran a blinder to grab 2nd under Hayler Turner, advised e/w at 11/1. Al Madhar hated the ground but both Amalfi Doug (11/1) and Toro Strike (8/1) landed e/w bets for us. Tinandali was never put in the race while Duke Of Hazzard got stuck in the mud. It is a very busy day tomorrow, check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday ITV tips below…
Saturday ITV Tips: 1.45pm Haydock – Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3)
Stormy Antarctic is a horse I rate very highly and I have tipped him a few times in the past. Usually he is sent off at massive odds but unfortunately the cat is out of the bag with him now. Ed Walker’s charge always hits form at this time of year, mainly because it is when he gets his favoured soft ground. It is currently soft at Haydock and with showers forecast it is unlikely to dry out too much. With conditions to suit he should run a massive race.
However, one that looks a fascinating runner at bigger odds is the outsider of the field, Graignes. Trained by George Baker, Adam Kirby takes the ride on this son of Zoffany. Still only a 4yo, he has some seriously good form in the book, some of which would put him right in the mix in this. He was only beat 5L behind One Master at Longchamp last season (G1 7f v sft) and he was staying on at the finish.
Last May he ran in the French Guineas when he was just 3L behind Persian King in 4th (8f hvy). That is only 1L more than Stormy Antarctic was behind the same horse, so on that evidence there shouldn’t be too much between those two rivals here. Even his 2nd to City Light in another G3 at Longchamp (7f gd) would give him serious claims today. He shaped as though on the way back last time at Deauville and at 33/1 Graignes looks well worth chancing e/w.
Saturday ITV Tips: Graignes e/w @ 33/1
Kempton Saturday: 2.00pm – Sirenia Stakes (Group 3)
A field of 10 juveniles are due to go to post for this 6f Group 3. We were on Rebel At Dawn last time when he ran a massive race at Naas. He has run very well on his last two starts now and while Chief Little Hawk let the form down from Naas, Happy Romance franked the form of his York effort during the week at Salisbury.
Rebel at Dawn, unlike most of his rivals, has form on the all-weather. He was runner up on his only try on an artificial surface at Newcastle (6f). So, there are no worries regarding the conditions. He has a nice draw in stall 1 and I would imagine Clifford Lee will adopt the same front running tactics that resulted in his sole victory at Doncaster. He should have learned plenty from his last two runs and a bold bid could be on the cards at odds of 33/1.
Saturday ITV Tips: Rebel At Dawn e/w 33/1
Saturday ITV Tips: Kempton 2.35pm – September Stakes (Group 3)
Enable may have lost her air of invincibility at Longchamp and Sandown, but her easy win at Ascot showed she retains plenty of ability. With a rating of 128 she is in a different stratosphere to the rest of her rivals and she will be extremely hard to beat at long odds on. The question is, which one of these will chase her home?
James Fanshawe has his string in good form and Kirstenbosch looks a potential improver upped to 12f for the first time. She is by Mount Nelson and she is 2/4, including an all-weather win at Chelmsford. This filly shaped very nicely on her sole start so far this season. She was only beat 5L in a Listed contest at Salisbury (10f fm) behind Alpinista. On the evidence of that effort combined with her pedigree, she looks well worth a shot at today’s distance. A rating of just 98 leaves her with a fair chunk to find, even with the likes of Fox Tal and Prince of Arran. However, she is totally unexposed at 12f and at massive odds she could sneak 2nd place. At 40/1, Kirstenbosch is the e/w selection.
Saturday ITV Tips: Kirstenbosch e/w @ 40/1
Haydock Tips: 2.50pm – Old Borough Cup (Class 2)
A field of 17 go to post for this 14f heritage handicap, including our old pal Glencadam Glory. We were on at big odds in the Ebor and he ran a massive race in 2nd. That was only 2 weeks ago though and he had a hard race. If he has come out of it in tip top shape he should be bang there again off 5lb higher. However, the bookies are wise to his chances now. Odds of around 8/1 are not big enough to tempt.
At a bigger price Brandon Castle looks an interesting contender for Holly Doyle and Neil King. This very useful dual purpose sort arrives here on the back of two easy hurdle wins. He’ll be piping fit and he gets in off bottom weight with a rating of just 88. That is 7lb lower than the mark off which he won over 14f at Musselburgh back in 2018, his last flat win. His form at today’s distance on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy is really consistent (12311) and he is well handicapped. At odds of 12/1 Brandon Castle is the each way selection.
Saturday ITV Tips: Brandon Castle e/w @ 12/1 (5 Places)
3.05pm Ascot – Lavazza Stakes Handicap (Class 2)
This Heritage Handicap has attracted a field of 11 and you could make a case for them all. At the prices I think Noble Masquerade could go well on handicap debut off 77. Hayley Turner takes over in the plate, probably due to the fact that this horse only has to carry 8st 2lbs. This son of Sir Percy looks potentially well handicapped off his current mark on a couple of pieces of form. He was a length behind Hot Summer on debut at Windsor (8f gd/fm) and that horse has won a handicap since off 81.
The horse that beat him into 2nd at Haydock, Lawahed, was getting 5lb from our selection that day. She was only beat 2L off 85 in a hot handicap at York afterwards. He was then 5L behind Coconut on his first try at 12f at Newbury (gd/sft) and he was conceding 5lb to her too. He gets 8lb from that filly here, a huge 13lb swing, so he should be able to turn that form around. Good to soft ground suits too and at odds of 16/1 Noble Masquerade is the e/w pick.
Saturday ITV Tips: Noble Masquerade e/w @ 16/1
Haydock Saturday Tips: 3.25pm – Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1)
The feature on Saturday is the Group 1 Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock and 13 go to post. Last year’s hero Hello Youmzain is back to defend his crown and conditions look perfect for him. He has been in superb fettle this season and he looks sure to be bang there at the finish. The Tin Man chased him home last season and he ran a nice prep race last time. The majority of his best form has come on better ground though and at 8yo his very best days could be behind him.
Art Power will be a lot more at home on today’s soft ground and in receipt of weight from the older horses he could be very dangerous. However, the one that looks massively overpriced back on testing ground is the Irish raider Forever In Dreams. Trained by Aidan Fogarty, this daughter of Dream Ahead was narrowly behind Glen Shiel at the Curragh last time (6f gd/yld). Her sole start on proper easy ground this term resulted in a G2 head defeat behind Speak In Colours.
She is a former course and distance winner, winning a Listed heat on good to firm. She followed that with a superb effort in 2nd behind Advertise (6f gd/sft) in the Commonwealth Cup. However, her best run last term came in the Champions Sprint on heavy when 3rd, beat 1.25L by Donjuan Triumphant. All of that form gives her a serious shout here and at odds of 40/1 Forever In Dreams is the e/w selection.
Saturday ITV Tips: Forever In Dreams e/w @ 40/1 NB (4 Places)
Saturday ITV Tips: 3.40pm Ascot – Tweenhills Handicap (Class 2)
The one I like at a price in this 6f handicap is Equitation for Stuart Williams and Marco Ghiani. This 6yo ran his best race over 5f at Ascot back in July. He was beat 1L by stablemate Tone The Barone off 89 and he is just 1lb higher today. He needs to bounce back from a poor run over C&D last time. However, that is not beyond the realms of possibility given his overall profile.
The son of Equiano was well beat at Newmarket prior to his good run here over 5f so I am going to forgive him his last run. All of his four career wins have come at today’s trip of 6f so there are no worries on that front. This looks like it should be a truly run race which will suit and off just 3Lb higher than he was for his easy win here a year ago, Equitation is the each way tip at 14/1.
Saturday ITV Tips: Equitation e/w @ 14/1 (4 Places)
4.00pm Haydock – Betfair Handicap (Class 2)
The penultimate live race of the day on ITV this Saturday is this tricky looking 5f handicap. None of them can be discounted with confidence and the one I like is Jabbarockie for Eric Alston and Jason Hart. This 7yo son of Showcasing loves to get his toe in and he gets his optimum conditions today. He has a fine record over C&D with 310013, with the final 3rd coming last month off a mark of 98. He was beat 2L that day and off a 3lb lower mark here he should be capable of going even closer.
Eric Alston’s inmate won on good ground on his seasonal comeback at Newmarket (5f gd) off 94. Excellent efforts off 98 and 99 followed at Doncaster and York. He was far from disgraced last time out off 96 in a big field, again at York. His trainer is in decent form and he has form figures of 01332313 when Jason Hart has been on board. All things considered, Jabbarockie looks worth chancing each way for 4 places at 9/1.
Saturday ITV Tips: Jabbarockie e/w @ 9/1 (4 Places)
4.15pm Ascot – Porsche Handicap (Class 2)
The one to be interested at a monster price in this is Almufti for Hugo Palmer and Franny Norton. This 4yo son of Toronado ran a huge race on his last visit to this track in the Silver Hunt Cup (8f gd). In off 91 that day he was beat just over 2L by Sir Busker in 4th and he is now 3lb lower. He shaped very well last time when held up and denied a clear run at Chester (7f gd/sft) and the return to the straight course at Ascot should suit him well.
All three of this horse’s wins have come on the all-weather, but his run at Royal Ascot proved he handles turf. It looks like good or good to soft suits best so conditions look ideal for him in this. Hugo Palmer is in good form with 4 wins and 3 places from his last 11 runners. On the evidence of his run at the Royal meeting dropping back to 7f will suit and he is competitively handicapped off 88. A massive run could be on the cards and at 22/1, Almufti is the e/w NAP of the day.
