Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos
2020 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips and Preview
The Melbourne Cup was a non-event for our selection Mustajeer. His race was over after 50 yards when his jockey failed to secure a decent racing position. He got shuffled back to last and after that he faced an impossible task. Michael Rodd claimed he had an ‘issue’ after the race but I am not too sure about that. The focus now switches to Keeneland this weekend for the Breeders’ Cup. A star studded cast will be on show at Keeneland and it promises to be a fantastic couple of nights of racing. You can check out Dave Stevos’ 2020 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips and preview below…
2020 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips: 7.30pm – Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 2)
First up on Friday is the 2yo Turf Sprint. There is plenty of European interest with three runners from the UK and Ireland. The ground is currently firm at Keeneland and the forecast is good so that is unlikely to change. That may not be ideal for Lippizzaner who has shown all his best form on easier ground. His sole start on good to firm resulted in a maiden reversal so the surface has to be a big worry.
Mighty Gurkha shouldn’t mind the ground as all his best turf runs this year were on good. He won his Group 3 on the all weather and he ran well in a couple of listed heats on the grass. However, whether he is up to this sort of level is debateable.
Believe in Tinkler
Ubettabelieveit is trained by Nigel Tinkler, not a trainer you’d normally associate with big meetings like this. However, his son of Kodiac more than deserves his place in this field. Beat on debut on good to soft, he hosed up on good to firm in a novice 2nd time out. He then scored in a Listed heat at Sandown on good before pulling hard and finishing stone last in a York G2. Consequently, he was sent off at 40/1 last time at Doncaster in another 5f G2 (gd).
This time he settled much better and won by a short head from Sacred. He kept on really strongly close to home to repel the final challenger so I don’t think this extra half furlong will inconvenience him. He is drawn in stall 6 and his jockey Rowan Scott will be eager to get a decent early position in behind the early pace. It will be the horse’s first time going around a bend which is an unknown but if he gets cover he should be fine. They won’t hang around early which will help him settle and at odds of 12/1 Ubettabelieveit it is the e/w pick.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips Friday: Ubettabelieveit e/w @ 12/1 (4 Places)
Breeders’ Cup: 8.10pm – Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
The first Grade 1 of the Breeders’ Cup meeting is the mile contest for 2yo colts and geldings. A field of 14 will line up in the stalls and Battleground heads the market for O’Brien and Moore. By War Front, he should love the ground and he won well over 7f at Goodwood last time. His dam Found won at this track over 12f so he is clearly bred for the job. The strength of the form of his Goodwood win is debateable though. As is the form of his Listed win at Ascot. At the prices he looks worth taking on.
The one I like at a decent e/w price is Go Athletico. Trained by French handler Philippe Decouz, the son of Goken has been a model of consistency. He is 2/5 with three 2nds and the two wins came on good to soft ground. His sire produced some of his best form on decent ground and his dam comes from a family that includes Graded winners in the USA. He acquitted himself very well over 6f on heavy last time. The step up in trip on faster ground could really suit him here. Sealiway franked the form of his G3 win at Longchamp and back on better ground our selection can uphold the Longchamp form. At odds of 14/1 Go Athletico is the e/w selection.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips Friday: Go Athletico e/w @ 14/1 NB (5 places)
Breeders’ Cup Friday: 8.50pm – Juvenile Fillies Dirt (Grade 1)
Only 7 fillies will take their chances in this 8.5f dirt contest. Four of them are unbeaten, winning 11 between them and the entire field have won 16 races in total. It is a top quality affair and really tough to read from a betting perspective. The one I like at the prices is the 2/2 filly Girl Daddy.
I loved how she breezed through her race when winning a G3 at Churchill last time (8f). You could see Joseph Talamo was always aware he had loads of horse underneath him. While she only beat Crazy Beautiful by 2L, Talamo never touched her with the whip and simply pushed her out for an easy win.
Yes, that was only a G3 and Princess Noor won equally as easily in a G1 on her last start. Simply Ravishing beat Crazy Beautiful by 4L further too, so on a line through that filly, Girl Daddy looks up against it. However, I can wait to see what the daughter of Uncle Mo does find when her jockey finally asks for a proper effort. If they go hard early and stamina comes into play, her pedigree suggests that will suit too. At odds of 8/1 she is the e/w pick in an absolute cracker of a race.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips Friday: Girl Daddy e/w @ 8/1
Breeders’ Cup friday: 9.30pm – Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)
There is another strong European challenge in this 8f contest. Miss Amulet owes us nothing after her win for us at York. I think today’s trip might stretch her though and she is overlooked on this occasion. One filly that looks sure to appreciate the step up to a mile is Nazuna. Trained by Roger Varian, this daughter of Kodiac’s sole win so far came on good to firm on her 2nd start. She failed to win her next two, but those defeats came in a decent nursery before a career best performance behind Isabella Giles in the G2 Rockfel (7f gd).
This will admittedly be her toughest task yet but I think the step up to a mile could elicit more improvement. She is bred to stay at least a mile and she has progressed markedly with each run so far. Her trainer Roger Varian seems optimistic of a good run and she is nicely drawn in stall 6. With stamina doubts about Campanelle and Miss Amulet and ground concerns for Mother Earth, at odds of 25/1 Nazuna is worth chancing each way for small stakes.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips Friday: Nazuna e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
Breeders’ Cup: 10.15pm – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Dirt (Grade 1)
Jackie’s Warrior heads the market for this 8.5f heat on the dirt. This son of Maclean’s Music is 4/4 and he didn’t see a rival on his last three wins at G2 (1) and G1 (2) level. The first of his G1 wins came at Saratoga. The 3rd horse Mutasaabeq, 12L behind him, won a G2 easily on his next start. The form looks rock solid and this colt is most certainly the one to beat. However, given the manner of his wins he is unlikely to be left alone in front this time. If he is taken on and there is a frantic early pace it could set up for a closer.
The one that could benefit from a strongly run race is Rombauer. Trained by Michael McCarthy, this son of Twirling Candy shaped very nicely on his first start on dirt last time at Santa Anita. Held up in rear early, he stayed on very well and he just failed to reel in the winner. They didn’t really go exceptionally quick that day and this race should be run more to suit Javier Castellano’s mount. A wide draw in stall 13 isn’t a hindrance given his racing style and at odds of 16/1 Rombauer is the e/w NAP of the day.
