Saturday Newbury and Newcastle Tips: Dave Stevos
Saturday Newbury and Newcastle Tips: All Live ITV Races
Friday was a day to forget for us at Newbury. Getaway Trump’s jumping lacked fluency and he never looked like threatening. Count Meribel also jumped terribly and he is going the wrong way. I thought Honest Vic ran a nice race, he was just given a shocker of a ride. It was a messy sort of race with an uneven pace and he did well to finish as close as he did in the circumstances. Don’t write him off. Hopefully we enjoy a bit more luck tomorrow, check out Dave Stevos Saturday Newbury and Newcastle tips for live ITV races below..
Saturday Newbury: 1.50pm – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Just light showers are forecast before racing on Saturday so it should be beautiful, good ground. That will be music to the ears of Sam Drinkwater who runs Howling Milan in this 20f handicap. A facile novice hurdle winner (16f gd) at this track in January 2019, he has run his best races at Newbury. He finished 4th behind The Cashel Man in this very race last year off 127. Now, he is back for a repeat bid off 4lb lower. When you consider he more or less had the race in the bag when falling at the last in another race over C&D last season off 125, he is definitely feasibly handicapped off 123.
This season hasn’t gone to plan for the 6yo son of Milan thus far. He was carried out on his seasonal return at Wetherby (19.5g gd/sft). That mishap happened early enough so he was entitled to need the run last time when well beat over an inadequate trip at Uttoxeter. The first time cheekpieces could sharpen him up and the return to nice ground is another massive plus. Robbie Dunne knows the horse well and hopefully he can hit the frame at odds of 14/1.
Saturday Newbury and Newcastle Tips: Howling Milan e/w @ 14/1
Newcastle Saturday: 2.05pm – Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)
Some very classy hurdlers have won this race in the past. My two personal favourites were Harchibald back in 2007 and The Champ, Buveur D’Air, spectacularly slamming Samcro in 2018. Epatante looks to be the star turn this term as she bids to follow up her brilliant Champion Hurdle win in March. In hindsight, it probably wasn’t the strongest ever renewal of the race. However, she did do it pretty easily. She has won 5 of her last 6 now and if she is fully revved up and ready to rock she is going to be very hard to beat.
Silver Streak played second fiddle to her at Kempton on Boxing Day last year, going down by 5L on unsuitably soft ground. He was over twice as far behind her at Cheltenham, but again the ground was too soft for him. Conditions will be a lot more to his liking on Saturday and I think he could pose a real threat to Epatante on good ground.
Silver Streak arguably produced a career best last time out when easily beating Verdana Blue by over 6L at Kempton (16f gd). His career form figures over timber on good ground read 21141211. He handles this track too, as he showed when running well to be 3rd on heavy in this race last season. He has a fitness edge over Epatante and at the odds, Silver Streak is the each way selection.
Saturday Newbury and Newcastle: Silver Streak e/w @ 6/1
Newbury: 2.25pm – Intermediate Hurdle (Listed)
This Listed handicap hurdle has attracted a field of 9 and the one I like at huge odds is the rank outsider, Millers Bank. This son of Passing Glance was very impressive on his final two starts of last season. He won a pretty ordinary Novice hurdle at Bangor (16f hvy) by 3.5L. He then followed up in a similar race on good to soft at Market Rasen. That was an even better effort as he easily beat a 124 mare (conceding 5lb) by 14L. That mare went on to win a novice by 8L on her next outing, as did the 3rd who was 17L behind Millers Bank.
That horse, Marlborough Sounds, was beat 1.5L in a handicap off 130 at the end of last month. Millers Bank races off a mark of 137 today and on that novice form he could be nicely treated. He needs to bounce back from a poor reappearance run and he must have made a noise because he has since had a wind op and he also sports a tongue tie for the first time. Alex Hales thinks a lot of this horse and he is in fine form, sending out 2 winners and 4 placed horses from his last 9 runners. Harry Bannister rode both those winners (14/1 and 22/1) so hopefully he can repeat the trick on this fella at 33s.
Saturday Newbury and Newcastle Tips: Millers Bank e/w @ 33/1
Newbury 3.00pm – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Grade 3)
This year’s Ladbrokes Trophy sees 18 go to post and it looks a cracking renewal. We were on Aye Right last time out in the Charlie Hall when he ran a huge race to finish 3rd behind Cyrname and Vinndication. He has 3L to find with the re-opposing Vinndication here and he is 7lb better off at the weights. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if he turned that form around. However, the bookies haven’t missed him this time.
One that does look overpriced on the back of a massive run at Wincanton is Potterman. Alan King’s charge was short headed by El Presente off 142 and he is 5lb well in here (mark due to rise to 147). He put together a string of good efforts on good ground this Summer/Autumn (2122) and conditions look perfect for him at Newbury. He finished 15L behind Vinndication at Ascot a year ago, getting 8lb, and he gets 19lb from that rival today. On better ground he should be able to close the gap at the very least. At odds of 16/1, Potterman is the each way selection.
Saturday Newbury and Newcastle Tips: Potterman e/w @ 16/1 NB (5 Places)
Newcastle 3.15pm – Betfair Rehearsal Chase (Listed)
A trip just shy of 3 miles awaits the 10 runner field in the Listed Rehearsal Chase. It is a stellar line up and you could make a realistic case for quite a few. It wouldn’t surprise me if Yorkhill improved on his debut run for Sandy Thomson but with recent form figures being alphabetical rather than numerical, he is impossible to back with any confidence. The one I like off a nice low racing weight at double figure odds is Shantou Village. Trained by Neil Mulholland, this lad is 3lb out of the handicap but Harry Reed’s claim offsets that.
The 10yo son of Shantou carries just 9st 11lbs and his trainer is reportedly very happy with him. He ran a lovely race last time out when beat just 1.5L in a decent race at Chepstow and with Reed’s claim he races off the same rating here. A winner of 146 in his pomp back in 2017, his last win came off 139 at Worcester in Aug 2018 but since then he has spent a bit of time in the wilderness. A couple of nice runs over hurdles seem to have restored his confidence and he looked like he was on the way back at Chepstow. He will love the ground, he is extremely well handicapped on old form and at 12/1, Shantou Village is the e/w NAP of the day.
Saturday Newbury and Newcastle Tips: Shantou Village e/w @ 12/1 NAP (4 Places)
Newbury 3.35pm – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
A class 2 handicap chase closes the show at Newbury on Saturday. At the prices, former C&D winner The Russian Doyen appeals most. Colin Tizzard has campaigned this son of Doyen over 19/20f since that good ground C&D victory, which came off a mark of 139. It looked like the trip stretched him when beat 24L over 20f at the Festival in March and it was a similar story when pulled up last time at the same track. However, it must be said that the ground was soft on both occasions.
He put in a pretty decent effort at Fontwell (19f gd/sft) back in October, the only time there has been good in the ground description since his win. I think the drop back in trip and return to better ground is in his favour and he is 3lb lower than for his win here last season. Tizzard has his string in fine fettle and if the first time blinkers help to sharpen up this lad’s concentration when jumping he could run a huge race. At odds of 10/1, The Russian Doyen is worth backing each way.
