2020 Sakhir GP Preview and Tips

It has been a quiet week for Formula 1 news, but there are a few things to note going into this weekend’s 2020 Sakhir GP.

Lewis Hamilton failed a Covid 19 test on Monday and will not be racing this weekend. Williams driver, George Russell, was announced as his temporary replacement. In turn, Russell’s seat at Williams will be taken by F2 and Williams reserve driver, Jack Aitken.

Following his fiery crash last weekend Romain Grosjean will not be able to drive for Haas and their reserve driver, Pietro Fittipaldi, will take his place.

We will be racing on a new circuit this weekend, or most of it will be new. The Outer Track layout at the Bahrain circuit is a very fast, very short lap. The expected lap time will be around 55 seconds and the race will run for 87 laps. The track looks very boring. It is basically three long straights with 11 corners and only two of them can be considered slow and there are just four braking events. It may be the least challenging track that F1 has ever used.

2020 Sakhir GP: Straight-Line Speed Crucial

Clearly straight-line speed is the most important attribute this weekend and Ferrari powered cars need not apply. There are two DRS zones and overtaking should again be relatively easy. The layout is quite unique, but its nearest relative would be Monza.

Taking the race form from this years Monza race would be a little misleading as it was one of those once in a decade mad races won by a complete outsider. We can however, have a look at who was good in qualifying there.

Standout results from the Monza qualifying were the two McLaren’s with Sainz qualifying a joint season best third and Norris a joint second best of the season sixth. Racing Point also performed well, Perez qualifying fourth. One team that underperformed was Red Bull. Verstappen could only qualify fifth and Albon ninth. But at the top of the pile, as usual was Mercedes with another 1-2.

All this means that after the musical chairs has ended, George Russell now has, not just a chance to score his first points in Formula 1, but to win the race. Jack Atkin on the other hand, gets the shitty end of the stick, and has to drive the very draggy Williams, which despite having Mercedes power, is likely to be last again.

Bottas is the incumbent Mercedes driver and knows the car inside out. Russell has driven last year’s Mercedes, but this will be a fast learning curve for him. Luckily it won’t be very difficult to learn the track and by race day he should be up to speed.

Verstappen Heads The Market

Bottas is now the favourite? Actually no. The bookmakers are leaning towards Max Verstappen who is the 2.50 favourite with Bottas at 2.75 and Russell at 4.33. I am not sure the bookies have got that right. The Red Bull is better on tracks with corners but on power circuits with not many corners, they are a little less competitive. They have improved their car since the Monza race, but the Honda power unit still lags behind the Mercedes and on this lay out, that is likely to be the difference.

The design philosophy at Red Bull is a rake, high downforce one, not at all suited to low downforce, power critical circuits such as Monza, or this one. Verstappen may end up starting behind not just the two Mercedes.

Valtteri Bottas is under a bit of pressure this weekend. The race is a dead rubber championship wise, but he is now expected to lead the team and win the race. He really should dominate Russell and if he doesn’t, his stock falls. Russell is also under some pressure to perform well as this is something of a job interview. He is in the Mercedes driver program and expected to replace Bottas at some stage, but a good showing might just hasten as to when that will be. Russell needs to do a decent job, nothing more. A podium finish would be quite respectable, and he must not try too hard. Crashing is a no no.

Bottas Out Of Form

Bottas is not in great form. Since he won the Russian GP, he has scored 40 points across five races. Hamilton scored 125 in the same car. Bottas struggled in the Bahrain GP after a poor start but he had not looked on the pace all weekend. Part of the problem was that after a poor start and a puncture he was in traffic and the Mercedes doesn’t perform as well in the pack that it does in the clear air at the front. That said, on a track were over taking is easy, he should have done better.

Looking at the speed trap figures for last weekend we saw that Renault were very fast on the straights. They do have a slippy car through the air and this track should suit, but they were fast on the straights last week because they choose a low drag set up. Last weekend’s layout was dominated by straights, but the twisty middle sector required a compromised set up and Renault just lent to the side of lower downforce. This weekend, there is no compromise to be made, everyone will be running a low downforce set up. Pure power is more important and that is good news for Mercedes and Racing Point.

Unlucky Perez

Perez was robbed of a podium finish last weekend when his power unit blew up on the penultimate lap. Where that leaves him penalty wise is not yet clear, but hopefully he still has a serviceable power unit in the pool. It does highlight that these power units are now at the later stages of their life cycle and we may see more failures on this power critical track.

Qualifying on a very short circuit is always tricky. When we get 20 cars all on track, some on out laps, some on qualifying laps, others on in laps, there are bound to be drivers who are compromised. Throw in the potential for a yellow flag and it is quite possible we could see some drivers out of place on the grid.

The track may be boring but there is a decent chance that it will throw up some surprises just because it is so unusual. As a result this is a race were it may be wise to wait until after qualifying when the grid is know and any potential penalties applied. That said, there are some decent ante post odds on offer and I will not be heeding my own advice.

2020 Sakhir GP: Qualifying

Qualifying itself should be another battle between the two Mercedes drivers. Only in Turkey, with its mad, newly resurfaced skating rink like track, have we not seen a Mercedes on pole position. Hamilton has had 10 pole positions, Bottas a disappointing 4. With Hamilton not taking part the coast is almost clear for Bottas to make it five poles. Surely Russell cannot hope to beat the incumbent driver to pole after just three practice sessions?

George Russell has never been out qualified by a teammate in his two seasons at Williams. Either he is a brilliant qualifier, or his teammates have been useless. We are about to get something like an answer.

Last weekend Russell was nearly a second faster than Latifi and was able to make it into Q2. That is taking a poor car as far up the grid as it is possible to do. For this Saturdays qualifying session, Russell will have a Mercedes at his disposal, the fastest car there is on the track.

Power is Pivotal

On a power critical circuit this qualifying session, should, as usual be between the two Mercedes. We know Bottas is second best to Hamilton on most occasions but only once, in dry conditions, has he been slower than anyone other than Hamilton, Verstappen in Russia (and there were valid arguments that Bottas didn’t try too hard in that session for strategic reasons). Even after the FIA banned special qualifying modes mid-season, the Mercedes have still dominated qualifying.

The big question is, could Russell out qualify the very experienced Bottas?

The fact that the track is so straight forward means that the driver has less input into the lap time. Only four braking events and nine corners worth the name means that the car is doing virtually all the work. There should be few opportunities for the driver to make a difference, either positively or negatively. What may make the difference is luck. Luck in terms of finding the track clear, or even better, finding a car on the right part of the track to give you a bit of a tow down the straights.

Russell has two ways to beat Bottas and get pole. By being the quicker driver or by being the luckier driver.

2020 Sakhir GP: 1 point George Russell to qualify in pole position @ 3.75 generally available

The battle for third place continues to rage. It was a disastrous race for Racing Point last weekend, both cars failed to finish the race while McLaren finished fourth and fifth and moved 17 points clear of Racing Point in the constructor’s championship. Renault scored 8 points last week which closed the gap to Racing Point, but they are now 27 points behind McLaren with just two races to go.

Racing Point should be strong on this power critical track. A podium looks very likely, not just possible. The track is going to handicap Red Bulls performance and Verstappen will struggle to make up the shortfall. Albon will do well to make the top six. Third place, or perhaps better, is up for grabs and Sergio Perez is the man most likely to get it. He has the crucial Mercedes power unit in his car and so long as it doesn’t go bang again he should be getting some champagne on Sunday.

Lance Stoll’s season has just fallen off a cliff since his third place at Monza. Since than he has scored two points from six races (he missed the seventh due to contracting the Corona virus). He has the car to do well but it is Perez who is delivering the results for Racing Point. Hopefully Perez will be penalty free and reliable this weekend.

2020 Sakhir GP: 2 points Sergio Perez to finish on the podium @ 3.50 generally available

If Stroll didn’t have bad luck, he would have no luck at all. He isn’t blameless at times, but he certainly is the unluckiest driver on the grid. Surely he gets a break at some point? He has a great chance this weekend so long as he hasn’t been kicking black cats or smashing mirrors. A top 6 finish in a Racing point should be more than achievable and his odds are more than tempting. We can’t over stake given his dire finishing rate of late, but he is worth risking.

2020 Sakhir GP: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish in the top 6 @ 4.33 with BET365, Boylesports

As a plan B, in case Perez fails to get the podium, Carlos Sainz looks an interesting candidate. He qualified in third place at Monza, so the car goes well on power critical, low downforce circuits. He is in top form with recent finishing positions being 5/6/7/5/5. With Red Bull likely to struggle, Ferrari out of the picture again he may well find himself behind the Mercedes and Racing Points, and perhaps in amongst them as he was at Monza. He may need some luck to get a podium but the top 6 looks very likely.

2020 Sakhir GP: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish on the podium @ 13.00 with Betvictor

2020 Sakhir GP: 3 points Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 6 @ 1.62 with William Hill

I have not mentioned the weather. That is because there is little to say. This will be a proper night race and all sessions will be held under the flood lights. The weather will be dry and warm for all three days.

I have not mentioned tyres either, a big issue last weekend. As usual the tyre issues receded as the weekend went on and Sainz was able to get 20 or so laps in on the soft tyre which was supposed to be useless after a handful. That saved his race as he was short on mediums.

The lay out of this track will put a lot less (20-30%) stress on the tyres as there a few fast, sweeping corners and few traction events. This makes it more likely that we get a more normal race with one stop, maybe two at most. Don’t forget to download the TXApp to get my race day preview.

-JamesPunt