Sandown and Aintree Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Sandown and Aintree Saturday Tips: All Live ITV Races
Our barren spell was finally ended by Bold Plan on Friday. The race unfolded exactly as I hoped and Sean Bowen used his mount’s turn of foot expertly. King’s Odyssey needed the run badly and was pulled up but Holdbacktheriver ran a cracker to finish 5th at 25/1 (advised NB 5 places). Quartz De Rheu drifted badly and finished weakly but he ran a lot better than the result suggests. He is one to watch out for. Dream Berry looked like he stopped quickly and Miss Honey Ryder faded disappointingly too after travelling well. We are back in action with 8 races on Saturday, check out Dave Stevos Sandown and Aintree Saturday selections below…
Sandown and Aintree Saturday: 1.30pm – Becher Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Like Highland Lodge, Walk In The Mill is a horse that relishes the Grand National Fences. Robert Walford’s stable star won this race in 2018 and 2019 and conditions look perfect for him to complete the hat trick. 4th behind Tiger Roll in the big one itself in 2019, I fancied him to go very close in the 2020 Grand National. Covid robbed him of his chance though and you would imagine all roads lead back to that race for Walk In The Mill this term.
He is in off 149, 8lb higher than he was when winning last year and 12lb higher than when he won in 2018. His trainer won’t want his mark going up too much for the Grand National so while he looks sure to run a huge race, this year the Becher will probably be a stepping stone for him.
Lion To Roar
With that in mind, I am going to chance another horse with a good record in the Becher. Vieux Lion Rouge won this race in 2016 off 142 and was runner up to Walk On The Mill in 2018 off 146. His poor run in 2017 came on heavy while last year Tom Scudamore was far too aggressive on him. He hasn’t stayed the distance in the Grand National itself so connections have likely nominated this race as his main target this season.
Tom Scudamore has abandoned Vieux Lion Rouge in favour of Ramses De Teillee. That isn’t really surprising given how gutsily he won at Cheltenham, but Conor O’Farrell is a good sub and he won the last time he got a chance on Vieux Lion Rouge. He is 16lb better off with Walk On The Mill compared to 2018 so he is handicapped to turn that 4L defeat around. Hopefully O’Farrell is patient on him and gets him into a nice rhythm early on. If he does, Vieux Lion Rouge could run a massive race at odds of 16/1.
Sandown and Aintree Saturday Tips: Vieux Lion Rouge e/w @ 16/1 NB (5 Places)
Sandown Saturday: 1.50pm – Henry VII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Six novices will go to post for this 15.5f Novice Chase. The minimum trip around Sandown is a proper test of jumping and the three 4yos will be bidding to become the first from that age group to win this race since 2009. Allmankind’s supporters will be hoping he can be the 4yo that ends the sequence.
The son of Sea The Moon hacked up by 13L in a 2 mile Novice last time at Warwick (gd) and the runner up won his next start in handicap company by 5L off 138. A Grade 1 winner over timber on heavy, this fella won’t have any worries about testing ground and if he jumps like he did last time he could be hard to beat.
Ground Concerns
The form of Tamaroc Du Mathan’s chase debut win isn’t as strong, but he was impressive. The worry for him is that his best runs have come on better ground than he’ll encounter here. Ga Law is another one that would prefer nicer conditions. Phoenix Way won on soft over 25f at Huntingdon but his wins over shorter have come on ground with good in the description. Hitman is another 4yo that was mightily impressive last time out. He dotted up in a soft ground beginners’ chase on his UK debut at Ffos Las and he is rated just 4lb inferior to the Skelton horse.
However, the one to be on here could be Eldorado Allen. This 6yo son of Khalkevi is on a hat-trick and he loves it at Sandown. He won his maiden hurdle there over 16f on heavy and was 2nd in a handicap hurdle on soft off 145. Bar a mistake at the last on his chase debut at Newton Abbott his jumping has looked solid. He also beat a very solid yardstick in Quel Destin by almost 20L in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time. He is proven at the track, he won’t mind the ground and at 10/3 a win bet is advised.
Sandown and Aintree Saturday: Eldorado Allen win @ 10/3
Aintree: 2.05pm – Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed)
A field of 12 3yo fillies will go in search of black type in this 17f Juvenile Hurdle. Eight of these already have form in the book while four of them make their hurdling debuts. Megan heads the market for Stuart Edmonds and Sam Twiston-Davies. She ran out an easy winner on her first UK/hurdles start at Leicester (15.5f sft). The form was boosted by the 25L 5th Volkovka who was a winner on her next start. Megan had some useful form on the level in Germany and if she improves for her last run she will take all the beating. However, odds of 6/5 don’t appeal and I’ll instead be taking a punt on Irish raider Army Of One.
Gavin Cromwell won this race with Famous Milly in 2017 and Jer’s Girl in 2015. He also had the 3rd in 2018, so clearly it is a race he targets. Army Of One represents him this season and Tom Scudamore rides. He is 1/2 when riding for Cromwell and he finished 2nd on the other ride. This horse didn’t show much in 5 flat runs in Germany, a 2nd being her best effort on good. However, she is very nicely bred and her pedigree suggests that 2 miles over jumps on soft ground won’t be a problem. Megan will be a tough nut to crack but given Cromwell’s excellent record in this contest, Army of One is the e/w pick at 11/1.
Sandown and Aintree Saturday Tips: Army Of One e/w @11/1
Sandown 2.25pm – Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)
The magnificent Altior will bid to land his second Tingle Creek for Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville. They managed to get him beat last season by stepping up in trip and he ended up missing Cheltenham altogether. Hopefully they keep him at 2 miles for the rest of his career because he is one of the best of all time at the distance. He has won 15/15 over fences at 16f and he goes on ground ranging from soft to good. Bottomless ground would be a worry, especially first time up. However, Henderson surely won’t risk him unless he is happy with conditions. Odds of 10/11 could look big by 2.30pm if Altior turns up in good form.
At a monster price, Castlegrace Paddy could go well if conditions are very testing. This 9yo son of Flemensfirth is 5/12 over fences. He returned to action with a brilliant win at Navan in November. He beat the highly touted A Plus Tard by half a length in a 16f Grade 2 and there was nothing lucky about it. Pat Fahy’s charge also beat Ornua on his final start of last season (16f hvy) and I think a rating of 154 underestimates him. Altior is clearly the one to beat and he is the most likely winner. Politologue might be vulnerable on his return to action and the rest look beatable, especially on testing ground. Castlegrace Paddy will love conditions and at massive odds a small e/w interest is advised.
Sandown and Aintree Saturday Tips: Castlegrace Paddy e/w @ 33/1
Aintree 2.40pm – Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2)
Again it is a small field for this Grade 2 25f chase with just 5 runners. The race revolves around Santini, last year’s Gold Cup runner up. He was all out to score on his seasonal comeback last year and he usually takes a few runs to hit top form. Now, he clearly has the ability to win this but if he is going to get beat this season it will most likely happen today.
Frodon reappeared with yet another gutsy win at Cheltenham for Bryony Frost (25f gd). A former course winner (20f gd), the worry for his supporters would be testing ground. He would probably get away with soft ground over shorter but at this distance his stamina may run out.
So, that leaves us with former Gold Cup hero Native River. Now a 10yo, Colin Tizzard’s charge looked as good as ever in his two runs last season. He was cruelly ruled out of the festival with an injury but the break may have done him the world of good. Native River won this race by 33L last season on good to soft and he is 2/2 at Aintree. Soft ground is fine for him and his form figures first time up read 32121.
With Frodon in the field Native River probably won’t get his own way in front. He should be fine slotting in behind the Nicholls horse if needs must but he won’t mind leading either if Frost tries to preserve Frodon’s stamina. I think he looks the most solid option of those at the head of the betting and at 5/2 Native River is the tip.
Sandown and Aintree Saturday Tips: Native River win @ 5/2
Sandown 3.00pm – London National Handicap Chase (Class 2)
A disappointing turnout for this year’s London National with just 7 chasers going to post. Regal Flow is a horse I really like but I would guess his main aim is the Veterans’ Chase he was short headed in here in January last season. The one I’ll be taking a chance on each way is Pobbles Bay for Evan Williams and Conor Ring. They did us a favour with Holdbacktheriver at Exeter yesterday and Williams also fired in an across the card double. His string is hitting form again after a long spell without a winner and this son of Oscar will relish the conditions at Sandown.
Pobbles Bay unseated Sean Bowen last time at Cheltenham and he is prone to the odd jumping error. However, he shaped really well at Aintree on his seasonal return behind Minellacelebration off 130 and he is in off the same mark today. Conor Ring’s claim means he is effectively 3lb lower and his last win came off 130 at Ffos Las (28f gd). Soft or heavy ground holds no fears and if he puts in a clear round Pobbles Bay could reward each way support at odds of 12/1.
Sandown and Aintree Saturday Tips: Pobbles Bay e/w @ 12/1 (3 places Betfair Sportsbook/Betfred)
Aintree 3.15pm – Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2)
A field of 19 will tackle the Grand National fences in the 21f Grand Sefton. The one I like at a nice each way price is last year’s 4th Flying Angel. This horse is something of an enigma. He is either very good or very bad and never in between. It was a case of the latter on his seasonal comeback at Ascot (24f sft) back in October. He was pulled up but the run was likely badly needed and 24f is too far for him. His last three runs have come over 25f, 26f and 24f and the last time he ran over today’s 21f trip was in this race last season.
His last win came over 21f too, at Ascot in November 2019 off a mark of 140. He was running off 143 here in the 2019 renewal so with Jordan Nailor’s 5lb claim he is in off effectively 8lb lower. The fact he has completed over these fearsome fences is a huge positive and he is a former Grade 1 course winner over 20f on good over the regulation fences. He has won on ground ranging from heavy to good so conditions are fine and his trainer says he is in much better form now than he was for his comeback. I think connections may have targeted this race after his good effort in it last season and at odds of 16/1, Flying Angel is the e/w NAP of the day.
Sandown and Aintree Saturday Tips: Flying Angel e/w @ 16/1 NAP (5 Places)
Sandown 3.35pm – Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
This 2 mile Listed handicap hurdle has attracted a field of 10. Mister Coffey is a warm order to land the finale for Henderson and De Boinville. He won over C&D impressively last time off 128 and there could be more to come off a 10lb higher mark. This is a much more competitive heat though and he lacks the experience of some of his rivals. Plenty of these would prefer better ground than they get today. However, one horse that is sure to relish the testing conditions is Trotterdown for Fergal O’Brien and Liam Harrison.
This Sandown specialist loves it when the mud is flying. His form figures over C&D read 13P13 and all of those efforts came on soft or heavy ground. His last win came off a mark of 130 and he is admittedly 9lb higher now. However, he was 3rd off 142 on his last start at Sandown (16f sft). With Liam Harrison’s 7lb claim he is effectively 10lb lower now and just 2lb higher than his last win. The 9yo son of Pasternak didn’t take to fences on his first two starts this season and reverting to the smaller obstacles looks the right move. If his fall last time hasn’t left a mark Trotterdown can make a bold bid at odds of 11/1.
