2020 Abu Dhabi GP Preview

The 2020 Abu Dhabi GP is the final race of a strange, but quite entertaining season. Sadly, it finishes on a track which isn’t the best, but neither is it the worst. The Yas Marina circuit was purpose built as a holiday destination with an F1 track built in.

The circuit has three distinct sectors. The first is fairly quick, a 90 degree corner leading into a fast curve and then on to a very slow chicane and a hairpin. Sector two is two very long straights joined by a chicane. The final sector is completely different, features 11 corners (more than in the entire Shakir Outer circuit), very busy, very much a brake, squirt, brake squirt sector where overtaking can’t be done, but it is a very important sector in terms of lap time.

Braking and traction needs to be good in that important sector 3 while sectors 1 and 2 reward power and require less drag. A compromise set up will be required. Too little downforce and you will be slow in sector three, too much and you are a sitting duck on the long straights. The teams traditionally tend towards a higher downforce set up as the final sector demands it.

Street Like Circuit

It is a street like circuit, not a real one in my opinion, but the final sector would be something like Monaco or Singapore in parts. The only other street track used this year was Sochi in Russia, another pseudo street circuit. They have a lot of 90 degree corners in common but this one puts a bit more emphasis on power.

Pirelli will be bringing their three softest compounds for this weekend, as they did last year. The track surface is smooth and tyre wear is low, so we are likely to see a one stop race. The interesting bit will be how the drivers in the top 10 cope with the soft tyre in the race. It will be dynamite in qualifying, but a poor race tyre. Some drivers, like Perez and Sainz, could ring more life out of them than others.

The drivers starting eleventh and twelfth will be in a good position to make up places by starting on the hard or medium compound and having a longer first stint. I imagine that Mercedes and probably Verstappen will use the medium compound tyre in Q2 which just makes their chances of winning even better.

2020 Abu Dhabi GP: A Late Start

Like the Bahrain GP, this is a twilight race, starting as the sun goes down and the floodlighting takes over. The weather forecast is for warm and dry conditions all weekend, but quite breezy which could cause a few problems, depending on the direction.

Historically and especially in the turbo Hybrid era, this has been a stronghold for Mercedes. The have won all six races and all six pole positions. Lewis Hamilton has won four with one each for Bottas and Rosberg. Max Verstappen qualified and finished second last year, third in 2018. Vettel has scored three podiums for Ferrari, Raikkonen and Leclerc one each. Not much success for the midfield teams but Force India/Racing Point have a sloid points scoring record.

The biggest problem looking ahead for this race is that we still don’t know if Lewis Hamilton will be driving for Mercedes, or will George Russell get another chance. Hamilton is out of his sick bed but wasn’t allowed to travel with the rest of the Formula 1 entourage on Monday.

Tight Covid Controls at 2020 Abu Dhabi GP

Abu Dhabi is not taking any chances COVID-19 wise and everyone involved is in a bubble. Nobody else is allowed in the area of the track and the hotel complexes. Everyone has had to pass their Covid test and isolate for two days after arrival. Clearly Hamilton can’t do that and the only way he can race is if the authorities make him an exception.

I imagine that they will. They pay a fortune to host the race and will want the World Champion there, but we may not know until Saturday as the latest Hamilton can enter the race weekend is for the qualifying session. I suspect Hamilton will want to race and not give Russell another opportunity to dent the world champions reputation. The ease by which Russell morally won the Sakhir GP, raised more than a few eyebrows. Either Russell is an exceptional talent, or it is just the car.

Will Hamilton be 100%

If Hamilton does race, the next question is his fitness. He was not asymptomatic and was ill. It is a virus whose aftereffects can linger. We saw Stroll driving like a drunk when he returned from Covid, and he eventually admitted that it had taken a lot out of him physically.

It is an unsatisfactory set of affairs from a punting point of view. It is also hard for the bookies to price up and many haven’t. Those that have are assuming that Hamilton will not race and have installed Russell as the 3.00 third favourite. Back him at that those odds and he might well be driving a Williams and you have done your dough.

Assuming Russell is in the Mercedes he could well win but this is a stiffer task. Last weeks track was very simple, very few corners, easy to learn. Russell has driven on this Yas Marina circuit, he finished seventeenth last year. But doing it in a car in which he is relatively unfamiliar will not be straight forward.

Potential Chance For Bottas

If Russell might struggle, or indeed if Hamilton is under the weather fitness wise, Bottas has an open goal. But can he shoot straight? His form has gone out of the window. Since winning in Russia, Bottas had a had two second places, two DNF’s and two eighth places. He was shafted by his own teams mistakes last weekend, but he was never going to win the race.

Another poor start saw him lose out to Russell who was the faster driver from when the lights went out. Bottas’ record here in Abu Dhabi isn’t great. He has one race win from pole position in 2017 but that is his only podium in a Mercedes, on a track where they have dominated.

If Mercedes are to drop the ball again who is likely to pick it up? Red Bull have an OK record here, but power deficiencies have handicapped them in the past. Verstappen has the ability to make a difference and the lay out of the track should suit them better than the Outer Track lay out in Bahrain. But the fact remains that a fully functioning Mercedes team will be very hard to beat.

Lucky Racing Point

Racing Point finally got their win last weekend. Would Perez have won without Mercedes shooting themselves in the head? No, Russell would have won. Perez has a solid record here, never worse than eighth in the turbo hybrid era. Another podium? It is possible. He was second in Turkey, a wet race and not a good form guide, should have been third in Bahrain but for a late power unit failure and took advantage of the events of last weekend. No doubt he will put himself in a position to get another podium but as usual he needs the leading players to have problems, and he might get it.

The top two teams have been unlucky or incompetent in the later part of the season and we have seen big problems for Bottas, who looks completely deflated right now. Last weekend was just another kick in the balls, and he is not happy. Verstappen has had four DNF’ in the last nine races, Albon isn’t good enough, and the only near flawless driver on the grid, Lewis Hamilton, may not take part.

Hamilton Status Pivotal For Podium Players

Again, Hamilton’s participation or lack of, is crucial for podium betting. If he races, and he is fully fit, he wins. That leaves two podium places and one of them will go to Bottas or Verstappen. We have only seen them both on the same podium twice in the last nine races, which suggests there is one place up for grabs.

Ferrari have had three podiums in the last three years. A lack of power will hinder them this time but they are happier on higher downforce circuits so they should a least be in the points. Charles Leclerc will be handicapped by a three place grid penalty for causing the first lap crash last weekend.

This will be the last race for Vettel as a Ferrari driver and maybe he can get his fifth, tenth position finish of the season, to sign out with a whimper. That said, neither driver is talking up Ferrari’s chances.

McLaren Playing Catch Up

McLaren are now ten points behind Racing Point in the race for third place in the constructor’s championship. They are not out of the picture for a podium and maybe Carlos Sainz can end his McLaren career with a podium. The breezy weather forecast is a bit of a concern as there is a wind sensitive car.

Looking at Russia as some sort of guide, it could be a very close battle between Perez, Ricciardo and Sainz for any podium crumbs that may fall from the table, and not to forget Shakir podium finisher, Esteban Ocon, who had his joint best qualifying result of the season at Sochi. Ricciardo ends his brief Renault career this weekend and it would be ironic if he signed off with a podium, his third of the year.

Outright betting only

Unfortunately, nobody is pricing anything up other than the outright market such is the uncertainty regarding Hamilton’s position. George Russell is Mercedes chosen driver for the press conference, but that means nothing. The bookmakers are taking no risks by pricing Russell up as a Mercedes driver, safe that if he isn’t, they can trouser any money bet on him. There is no market with Hamilton in it. It is almost like the bookies are trying to have their cake and eat it.

As things stand it is impossible to give any ante post recommendations for the 2020 Abu Dhabi GP and any recommendations for the weekends action will be posted on the TXAPP, with the usual updates before the start of qualifying and the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt