2020 Boxing Day Tips From Kempton, Leopardstown and Wetherby

Dave Stevos has already put up a selection for the King George, check it out here. We have other high quality races at Kempton, Limerick and Leopardstown while the ITV cameras will be at Wetherby too for the Rowland Meyrick. We can hopefully keep our decent recent run of form going, check out our 2020 Boxing Day tips below…

2020 Boxing Day tips – 1.05 Leopardstown: Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)

The RTE2 cameras will be at Leopardstown on St Stephens’ Day and first up is this Grade 2 juvenile hurdle. Only 7 go to post and the bookies make it a one horse race. Zanahiyr is very short odds to make it 3/3 over timber for Elliott and Kennedy. A decent performer on the level, this son of Nathaniel beat Dark Voyager by over 2L on his hurdling debut at Ballinrobe (18f sft). He was even better last time out, scoring in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse by 14L. Saint Sam was the one that chased him home and there is no reason to believe that he can turn that form around.

If you are looking for one to take the favourite on with, Busselton could be the answer. This former French performer was beat on his only flat run but he was very impressive when winning his sole hurdle start back in May (15f sft). The son of Mastercraftsman had a horse called Hades 3L back in 4th and he was beat 1L in a Grade 2 Chase on his last start. The 7th home also franked the form by winning a Listed handicap hurdle two starts later. Trip and ground should be ideal for Busselton and at odds of 14/1 he is worth chancing each way.

2020 Boxing Day Tips: Busselton e/w @ 14/1

1.15 Kempton: Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)

A 10 runner class 3 handicap chase kicks off proceedings on ITV on Boxing Day. The ground is good to soft at Kempton and I think William H Bonney could run very well in this contest. Trained by Alan King, this 9yo shaped as though in need of further on his first chase start at Newbury last time (16.5f gd). He finished 3rd that day, beat 8L, and while he lacked the pace to challenge he kept on pretty well to the line. All his hurdle wins have come at around 2 miles and it is admittedly worrying that he was pulled up on his sole previous try at 20f.

However, it wasn’t that he didn’t stay the trip that day, it was more a case that he just ran an absolute stinker. William H Bonney races off a mark of 125 at Kempton, 4lb below his last winning mark and 7lb lower than his highest winning rating. Good to soft ground suits the son of Midnight Legend well and he enjoys racing on flat, sharp tracks. If he is going to stay 20f, Kempton should give him every chance of getting it and at odds of 14/1 I think William H Bonney could sneak into the frame.

2020 Boxing Day Tips: William H Bonney e/w @ 14/1 (5 Places W Hill)

1.40 Leopardstown: Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-123)

A refreshingly large field of 20 novice hurdlers go to post for this tricky looking 16f handicap. You could nearly make a case for the whole lot of them and given his exploits on the flat, it is unsurprising to see One Cool Poet at the head of the betting for Mattie Smith and Robbie Colgan. He is in off 102 so he looks absolutely chucked in when you consider he is rated 96 on the level. However, all five of his wins have come on good ground or better so yielding to soft ground is a big worry. He may still have the necessary class to win. However, at the odds I’d rather look elsewhere for a bet.

Mig Looks Overpriced

At a bigger price I think Mig De Taillons could have more to come in handicap company for Pat Turley and Derek Lavery. This 5yo son of Montmartre has been a revelation since switching to handicaps for this trainer. He began his journey at Tramore when beat on his first run of the season in August off 92. He then made no mistake next time at Down Royal (yld/sft) off 94 when beating Lusis Naturea by 4.5L. Another excellent effort followed at Galway off 109 before a disappointing effort on good ground at Punchestown.

Plenty probably thought the handicapper had caught up with this fella. However, he proved them wrong with another win in a handicap at Fairyhouse (16f yld) off 111. After a short break he popped up in a novice at Musselburgh, winning nicely at odds on (15.5f sft). A bit of cut and 2 miles suit Mig De Taillons well and conditions look perfect for him at Leopardstown. He has experience in big fields against seasoned handicappers, which is another positive. At odds of 16/1 he looks well worth chancing each way off a mark of 125.  

2020 Boxing Day Tips: Mig De Taillons e/w @ 16/1 NB (5 Places)

1.50 Kempton: Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

A total of 7 horses will fight it out for Grade 1 glory in this 24f Novices’ Chase. On ratings it looks to be between three of them. Shan Blue, rated 152, is the market leader for the Skeltons. He is on a hat-trick of wins and he produced a career best last time when hacking up at Wetherby (24f gd/sft).

A former point winner over 24f, he is now unbeaten in two runs at the distance under rules and he looks an exciting prospect. However, he has come up short every time he has tried to step up in class so far. It remains to be seen if he will be able to dominate in this field.

Breakaway Lacks Gears

The Big Breakaway is rated 148 and he will be delighted to be back at 3 miles. We were on Bold Plan when he pulled off the upset win over this horse at Exeter last time (19f). The Big Breakaway’s lack of gears was exposed by his quicker rival and stepping back up to 24f looks the right move. However, whether this track will play to his strengths is another matter.

With an official rating of 160, If The Cap Fits was the best of these over hurdles. However, he didn’t look like a natural chaser when beat 2.5L by Pym on his second run over the bigger obstacles at Sandown last month. There is no doubting his ability though and as he showed at Ffos Las when winning on his chase debut, he likes flat tracks.

Golan Overpriced

Another horse who will appreciate the flat track at Kempton is Golan Fortune. With a rating of 141 he has a bit to find with the principals. He won easily on his belated chasing debut at Ludlow (24f gd/sft), despite putting in a couple of poor leaps. He beat the 138 rated Champagne Well by 8L and the 142 rated Stoney Mountain was 30L behind in 3rd.

Golan Fortune’s only previous run at Kempton ended in victory and soft/good to soft ground suits him well. I don’t think he deserves to be as big as 50/1 when you consider he is rated 1lb higher than both Enrilo (8/1) and One For The Team (14/1). His trainer Phil Middleton is hopeful of a good showing too.  At the prices he is surely worth a couple of quid each way with some firms paying 3 places.

2020 Boxing Day Tips: Golan Fortune e/w @ 50/1 (3 Places)

2.05 Wetherby: Rowland Meyrick Chase (Grade 3)

The feature race at Wetherby on Boxing Day is the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick handicap chase. 9 will go to post in this 3 mile race and it looks wide open. The ground is currently soft at Wetherby but with rain forecast it could turn heavy. One horse that won’t have any issues regarding the ground is Springtown Lake for Hobbs and O’Brien. This son of Gamut didn’t take to the Grand National fences at Aintree last time out when beat 17L by Beau Bay. He is now 8lb better off with that rival and back on a more conventional course he could turn that form around.

Springtown Lake has yet to win at beyond 20.5f but the times he tried 3 miles+ the ground has been on the good side. He is stoutly bred and his pedigree suggests that the trip should be within reach but he has to go out and prove it. I think he is feasibly handicapped off 141 and if he can repeat his Aintree 2nd to Modus back in November he won’t be far away here. At odds of 15/2, Springtown Lake is the each way selection.

2020 Boxing Day Tips: Springtown Lake e/w @ 15/2 (4 Places)

2.15 Leopardstown: Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1)

This Grade 1 17f Novice Chase has attracted a field of just 6. Felix Desjy and Blackbow head the betting after their last time out victories. However, I think the horse that finished 3rd behind Felix Desjy at Punchestown (16f hvy) last time, Darver Star, is the one to be on in this race. He wasn’t suited by the drop back to 16f or the testing ground that day. He previously hosed up over 17f on yielding at the same track on his chasing debut and he will relish the similar conditions at Leopardstown.

Darver Star ran a mighty race behind Honeysuckle at Leopardstown back in February. He was only 0.5L behind the wonder mare over 16f and if it was a 17f race he would have lowered her colours. That is the best form on offer in this race and his Champion Hurdle 3rd wasn’t a bad effort either. I think this son of Kalanisi could be very hard to beat and at odds of 7/2 he is worth backing for the win.

2020 Boxing Day Tips: Darver Star win @ 7/2

2020 Boxing day tips – 2.25 Kempton: Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)

This race has been won by some of the best hurdlers of all time over the years. Harchibald, Binocular, Faugheen and Buveur D’Air are just some of the stellar names to have landed this prize and Epatante is back to try and defend her crown. She beat the admirable grey Silver Streak by 5L in this last season on soft ground but on good to soft Evan Williams’ grey could give her more to think about. Epatante comes into this race on the back of a facile win at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth (16f gd). She won that as she was entitled to, beating Sceau Royal by over 4L.

She is 1/4 to make it two successive wins in this race and that looks awfully short to me. Even though he has to concede 7lb to his rival, Silver Streak looks the biggest threat. He has yet to take on Epatante on ground better than soft and he ran a huge race on unsuitable ground last time at Cheltenham. I think he is massively overpriced at odds of 6/1 and with two places on offer Silver Streak has to be worth backing each way at those odds. Hopefully all 5 run but if they don’t, the Williams horse is still worth backing for the win.

2020 Boxing Day Tips: Silver Streak e/w @ 6/1

2.35 Limerick: Faugheen Novices Chase (Grade 1)

The ground is heavy at Limerick (surprise, surprise!) where the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase is the feature. Only 5 will go to post and the decision of Paul Townend to head to Limerick instead of Leopardstown points to the obvious claims of Asterion Forlonge. This fella hosed up on his chasing debut at Punchestown (19f sft/hvy) and his sole rules defeat came behind Shishkin in the Supreme last season. He was the best of these over timber by a distance but the other two Mullins runners cannot be discounted.

Colreevy was ultra impressive when winning at Punchestown on her first chase start. She will love the ground, she is a former course winner and she gets a handy 7lb allowance from the boys. Janidil is another one that won’t mind the ground and he too looked pretty decent when comfortably beating Longhouse Poet on his chase debut at Naas (19f sft/hvy).

Trip may not suit Pencil

Pencilfulloflead won a Grade 2 at Punchestown on his last outing, beating Latest Exhibition by 7L. His two chase wins have come at around 22f and this drop back in trip may not be ideal for him. Assemble completes the field for O’Brien and Meyler and he chased home the superstar Envoi Allen last time at Fairyhouse (20f sft). He too has won at this track before and he will enjoy the testing ground. However, the bookies look to have priced this race up about right and nothing really looks overpriced. I will be watching this with a view to the future, no bet recommended.

2020 Boxing Day Tips: No Bet

2.50 Leopardstown: Handicap Chase (0-140)

The one I am very sweet on in this 17f handicap chase is Ask Nile for Seamus Neville and Ricky Doyle. This 8yo son of Ask has not won as many races as he should for a horse with his ability. He often travels very sweetly in his races but doesn’t find as much as expected at the business end. Last time at Wexford the soft/heavy ground was against him over 20f and 24f at Listowel and 23f at Ballinrobe stretched his stamina. I think that the drop back in distance is really going to suit him in this race, as will the better ground.

Another reason for optimism is his record at Leopardstown. Okay, he has failed to win at the track but he has run well on two of his previous three visits. He finished 8th in this race in 2017 off 134 and he was an excellent 2nd to Woods Well over 21f in March 2019 off 129. Ask Nile races off a mark of 130 today and he is back at the distance of his last win.

There is plenty of early speed in this race which will suit this fella and there probably won’t be many travelling better when they turn for home. Whether he will show the resolution to go and win is up for debate but I think he has outstanding place claims at the very least. With 5 places on offer, Ask Nile is the e/w NAP of the day at odds of 16/1.

 

2020 Boxing Day Tips: Ask Nile e/w @ 16/1 NAP (5 Places)