Tottenham vs Liverpool Preview and Betting Tip

After the distraction of the FA Cup, the Premier League is back this midweek. The big match of the game week is Tottenham vs Liverpool and it kicks off at 8pm on Thursday night, live on BT Sport 1. Spurs, the 23/10 underdogs, can overtake Liverpool with a win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and move 2 points ahead of them with a game in hand. Liverpool, the 5/4 favourites, need to get back on track in the Premier League after a torrid run in the past month or so. Mourinho vs Klopp is always box office and this match will feature an intriguing clash of styles.

Jose To Park The Bus?

If Jose Mourinho has watched Liverpool in the past few weeks in the EPL he will know that the tactics needed to frustrate them are pretty simple. Sit tight early, defend deep in numbers, weather the early storm and then try to score on the counter-attack. Mourinho is a master at engineering these type of performances and he will be licking his lips at the prospect of taking on Liverpool at this particular time.

Spurs battled to a hard fought 4-1 FA Cup win against Wycombe on Monday night where Mourinho rested a few of his main stars. Kane played for half an hour and Son for just 20 minutes, so both men should be fresh for Thursday night. Mourinho could play either 4 or 5 at the back but whichever formation he plays, the strategy will be to defend with two low blocks and transition into attack with speed when the opportunity arises. Ben Davies is an injury doubt after picking up a knock on Monday. That could mean that Alderweireld comes into the team. Reguilon and Aurier will line up on the flanks of the defence with Hojbjerg, Ndombele and Winks in midfield.

Jose Mourinho’s side will try to get the ball to Kane (12 goals,11 assists) and Son (12 goals, 6 assists) as quickly as possible once they win possession. Son’s pace will be a massive threat against a Liverpool defence that is sorely lacking in that department. If Kane can find enough time and space on the ball when he drops deep, he has the passing ability and vision to cause Liverpool all sorts of problems.

Liverpool Stuck In A Moment

Liverpool are stuck in a moment and they haven’t been able to get out of it. There were mild signs of encouragement at Old Trafford where Mo Salah managed to score a couple of nice goals. However, they were given space by Man Utd who set up a lot more offensively minded than they did in the stalemate at Anfield. This allowed Liverpool to look a lot more potent in attack. However, they won’t be afforded the same time on the ball or space on Thursday.  

In the Premier League teams have worked out how to stifle Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s men have struggled to adapt and they have now failed to score in 4 successive games. Their bluntness in attack has been compounded by injuries at the back and they look very fragile right now. Jordan Henderson’s recent injury couldn’t have come at a worse time too. His vocal leadership has been sorely missed on the pitch.

Thiago, while obviously a world class player, doesn’t bring the same energy or urgency to Liverpool’s midfield. Alexander-Arnold is struggling for confidence and form, as are Mane and Firmino. Shaqiri has looked neat and tidy on the ball since returning to the fold. However, his overall contribution has not been good enough. Even Alisson has looked shaky at times in the last couple of EPL games.

Recent History Is Against Spurs

One thing that is strongly in Liverpool’s favour is their fine recent record vs Spurs. They have won 7 in a row against the Londoners, including the Champions League Final in 2019. The meeting between the two sides at Anfield earlier this season was extremely tight with Liverpool capitalising on poor finishing by Spurs. Roberto Firmino pounced with a last minute winner to give the hosts a 2-1 victory.

Tottenham vs Liverpool: XG For + Results Last 5 Premier League Matches

The Expected Goals For (XG) stat is a very good indicator as to how potent a team has looked in attack. As you can see, the highest XG achieved by Liverpool in their last 5 EPL fixtures was 1.65 vs Burnley. They were regularly posting XG figures of over 2.5 last season so it illustrates just how much they are struggling to open up opposition defences this time around.  

Tottenham somehow managed to draw 1-1 vs Fulham despite earning an XG of 3.14. Two games back they produced an XG of 2.53 vs Leeds, a match they won 3-0. This suggests that they are creating plenty of chances. However, they won’t be setting up the same way tactically vs Liverpool because the emphasis will be more on defence than attack.

Spurs To Twist The Knife

Liverpool could definitely draw some positives from Sunday’s defeat at Old Trafford. Salah got back on the scoresheet and Firmino’s form improved, but will they build on it? Tottenham will not give Liverpool the same time and space that Man Utd did. Jose will have no qualms about parking the bus and they will be tough to break down.

In attack, Spurs have the players in Son and Kane to exploit Liverpool’s Achille’s Heel, their lack of pace at the back. They were unlucky not to get at least a point at Anfield when Liverpool were in better form. I think they can make amends on Thursday night. At the prices, Spurs definitely represent value. Back  the home win in the Tottenham vs Liverpool showdown at odds of 23/10 with William Hill.  

Tottenham vs Liverpool Tip: Tottenham to win @ 23/10 William Hill

Key Quotes

Jose Mourinho: Speaking after the 4-1 win vs Wycombe – “Ben Davies was just a bad feeling, I hope it is not anything on his calf, so hopefully we managed to play and not have big injuries or fatigue.”

Jurgen Klopp: “It was a good test tonight for our next opponent. We play Tottenham and they, obviously, are not too bad in counter-attacking as well. So yeah, we should do better, but I know that the boys will do it better.”

Dave Stevos