2021 Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter

There is just over a month to go until the greatest National Hunt Racing show on earth kicks off. Unfortunately, it looks like the crowds won’t be able to return but at least the Cheltenham Festival will still go ahead behind closed doors. In the next few weeks Dave Stevos will be previewing the four feature races, using stats to narrow the field, starting with the Champion Hurdle. He found 2 of the first 4 home in 2020, check out the 2021 Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter below..

2021 Champion Hurdle Stats: Age

As is always the case with these stats pieces, the first parameter I will use to cut the field is age. Looking back at the winners of this race since 2009 it is plain to see that horses between the ages of 6yo and 8yo are the ones to be interested in. Only twice has the winner not come from that age bracket. Hurricane Fly was a 9yo when he won in 2013 and Espoir D’Allen was a 5yo in 2019.

So, this stat allows us to narrow the field considerably. The shortest priced horse to go at this stage is the 14/1 shot Aspire Tower (5yo). Another high profile horse that misses out is Goshen (5yo). It pains me to say it, but the stats also suggest that the 2017 and 2018 Champ Buveur D’Air (10yo) has no chance this year. 9 horses in total are counted out at this stage with 22 left in the running.

Cut: Aspire Tower; Buveur D’Air; Goshen; Not So Sleepy; James Du Berlais; Sceau Royal; Ballyandy; Petit Mouchoir; Verdana Blue.

Cheltenham Experience

Another important factor to consider is whether a horse has previous form at Cheltenham. That is viewed as a big positive by many shrewd punters and when you examine previous results, it is easy to see why. Only 2 of the last 12 winners of this race had never run at Cheltenham before. So, for the purposes of this piece I will be focusing on horses that have at least 1 run at the track.

Rank outsider Winston C is eliminated and so is 66/1 shot Maries Rock. Noel Meade’s charge Beacon Edge is another one to miss out. The two shortest priced horses to falter at this stage are Jason The Militant and Buzz, both 40/1 shots. So, that is five more horses that have fallen by the wayside. Next up, I will use recent form to narrow the field even further.

Cut: Winston C; Maries Rock; Buzz; Beacon Edge; Jason The Militant.

Recent Form

I am usually always willing to forgive a horse a poor recent run but the stats are not so kind. Since 2009, 11 of the 12 Champion Hurdle winners won or placed on their previous outing. Jezki was the only one to buck this trend when he won in 2014 after he finished last of 4 in the Irish Champion Hurdle. This is another stat that proves costly for some fancied horses.

Last year’s runner up Sharjah is the biggest name to fall at this stage. He was well beaten on his last outing behind Honeysuckle at Leopardstown. However, it is important to note he bounced back from a similarly poor run to finish 2nd in this race in 2020. Saint Roi won the County Hurdle last year but he was also well behind Honeysuckle so he is dismissed. At bigger odds Couer Sublime, Call Me Lord, Ribble Valley and Saldier are among the casualties at this point.

Cut: Sharjah; Saint Roi; Couer Sublime; Call Me Lord; Ribble Valley; Saldier.

2021 Champion Hurdle Stats: The Verdict

So, after all of that we are left with seven contenders for the 2021 Champion Hurdle. Concertista is one of the survivors but she is 7/4 for the Mares’ race and she is likely to head there. For Pleasure will probably run in the Supreme so that leaves five horses to choose from. The two mares, Honeysuckle and last year’s winner Epatante head the market and on their last runs, you would have to favour Henry De Bromhead’s charge.

She won at the festival last season over 20f in the Mares’ race when many felt she should have gone for this contest. She produced a career best over 16f last time at Leopardstown so the drop in distance is not an issue. Epatante was electrifying in this race last season but she came unstuck behind Silver Streak last time out. If there is good in the ground description come March, I think Evan Williams’ dashing grey can uphold that form.

Abacadabras A Lot To Find

Abacadabras has 10L to find with Honeysuckle on their meeting at Leopardstown in February. However, he ran a massive race behind Shishkin last year at Cheltenham and I think the return to this track and better ground could help him to close the gap. Song For Someone beat Silver Streak by a nose in December over 17f here but that was on soft ground. If the conditions are similar then he could come into the reckoning but on good to soft or better Silver Streak can reverse the form.

So, to conclude, I think Honeysuckle is the one to be on in the 2021 Champion Hurdle. She gives the impression that she only ever does enough to win and there could still be much more to come. If there is good in the ground description Silver Streak could pose the biggest threat. Those looking for each way value should consider both Song For Someone (if the ground is on the soft side) and Abacadabras. I’m just not convinced by Epatante and while she could make a fool of me, I think she may miss out on the first three.

2021 Champion Hurdle Stats Prediction

1. Honeysuckle
2. Silver Streak.
3. Abacadabras.
4. Epatante.
5. Song For Someone.