2021 Champion Chase: The Stats That Matter

Last week we took a look at the Champion Hurdle and used a number of different statistics to narrow the field and hopefully find the winner. This week we will try to do the same for the much anticipated 2021 Champion Chase. Chacun Pour Soi heads the market and for many he is one of the bankers of the week. Will the stats come to the same conclusion? Find out below…

2021 Champion Chase Stats: Age

In a race that is all about speed you would imagine that younger horses would dominate. Surprisingly, that isn’t the case in the Champion Chase. Since 2009 only one 6yo has prevailed and no horse older than 10yo has won since Moscow Flyer scored as an 11yo back in 2005. Of the last eleven winners, 9yos had the most success with five wins while 7yos, 8yos and 10yos all had two wins apiece.

Using this stat to trim the field gives us our first high-profile casualty – Altior. The 2018 and 2019 winner missed his opportunity to gain his third win last season and if the stats are right, he won’t be getting his head back in front this year.  At the other end of the age spectrum two more horses are eliminated, Fakir D’oudairies (6yo) and Fanion D’Estruval (6yo).

Cut: Altior; Fakir D’oudairies; Fanion D’Estruval.

Chasing Experience

One thing that is vital for the Champion Chase is previous experience over fences. Every single winner of this race since 2009 has had at least 7 chase runs. This stat allows us to narrow the field again and some big names are eliminated. Cilaos Emery has only had 5 chase starts so he is counted out. Simply The Betts is another outsider that fails to make it past this stage.

Samcro, who is still in the race, has only had 6 chase starts so he is cut, as is Greaneteen who has had the same number of outings over the bigger obstacles. The most notable casualty is the well fancied Nube Negra. Dan Skelton’s charge has only had 5 starts over fences so unfortunately, he gets the chop too.

Cut: Cilaos Emery; Simply The Betts; Greaneteen; Samcro; Nube Negra.

Cheltenham Form

Another vital ingredient for any horse with hopes of winning the 2021 Champion Chase is previous Cheltenham form. All of the last 12 winners have had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, while 7 had a win at the track. For the purposes of this piece I have decided to discount any horses that have yet to place at Prestbury Park.

Battleoverdoyen (P-4), Esprit Du Large (F) and Notebook (0-6) all come a cropper at this point. The biggest shock of all though is that both First Flow (pulled up only previous Cheltenham start) and the odds on favourite Chacun Pour Soi, who is unraced here, do not tick this box. That is another five horses that have bitten the dust, leaving 11 contenders still standing.

Cut: Battleoverdoyen; Esprit Du Large; Notebook; First Flow; Chacun Pour Soi.

Class Counts

Ten of the last twelve winners of the Champion Chase had at least one Grade 1 win in the bag. That means we wave goodbye to last year’s 3rd Bun Doran who is a rank outsider. Other long shots that miss out at this stage include Chatham Street Lad, Ibleo, Magic Saint and Rouge Vif. Five of the remaining six have all bagged at least one Grade 1 win over fences, apart from Tornado Flyer who gained his top level win in a bumper.   

Cut: Bun Doran; Chatham Street Lad; Ibleo; Magic Saint; Rouge Vif.

2021 Champion Chase Stats: The Verdict

The stats have had their say and only six horses remain standing in the running for the 2021 Champion Chase. The shortest priced one is Politologue, last year’s winner. Now a 10yo, he isn’t getting any younger but he will likely turn up in much better form than when beat 7L by First Flow at Ascot. Min never jumped or travelled last time out so that has to be a worry. He will most likely run in the Ryanair in any case.

Put The Kettle on represents the younger generation and last year’s Arkle winner has surely been targeted at this race. She beat Duc De Genievres here on her comeback in November and she ran respectably when 3rd behind Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown. I would expect her to come on a lot for that run and if she gets decent ground she is capable of running a big race.

Tornado Could Fly

It is impossible to fancy Sceau Royal on recent efforts and he may well go for the Champion Hurdle. Duc Des Genievres is a talented sort on his day but he too has to bounce back from a couple of below par runs at Kempton and Ascot. The one that could surprise with a big run at a price if he turns up here is Tornado Flyer. He has run some very eye-catching races this season and he was only 1L behind Min at Gowran Park. Willie Mullins’ charge was 3rd in the Champion Bumper back in 2018 and he ran well enough behind Samcro over 21f at last year’s festival.

Politologue deserves respect after his brilliant win here last season. However, he may have to give best to Put The Kettle On. She has a bit to find at the ratings but she loves it here and I think she might just make it 4 wins from 4 starts at Cheltenham. If he runs, Tornado Flyer is more than capable of running into a place at 50/1 (NRNB Betfred) and I wouldn’t put you off having a small each way interest at those sort of odds. He will appreciate a strongly run race and if he jumps and travels like he can then he could play a part at the finish. Politologue is taken to complete the first three.

2021 Champion Chase Stats Prediction

1. Put The Kettle On (14/1)
2. Tornado Flyer (e/w Tip 50/1 NRNB Betfred)
3. Politologue (9/1)
4. Duc De Genievres (50/1)