Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea Preview and Betting Tip

The Toffees landed a nice touch for us at Anfield by winning 2-0 on Saturday. The focus now switches from the Premier League back to the Champions League and the big match of the game-week is Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea. Atletico are top of the La Liga table and they are as big as 7/4 with one firm to get the win in the first leg of this Last 16 showdown.

Thomas Tuchel’s Blues can be backed at 15/8 to secure a vital away victory while the draw is chalked up at 21/10. Diego Simeone’s men have an excellent home record in the UCL but this match will be played in Bucharest so there will be no home advantage for Atleti. Find out who Dave Stevos’ fancies to come out on top below.

Atleti Out Of Form

Only a couple of weeks ago it looked like Atletico Madrid would win La Liga at a canter. Their big rivals Real Madrid and Barcelona were faltering and Atleti were winning games and conceding very few goals. They won 15/16 and on Jan 31 they were 8 points clear of Real at the top with one less game played. Fast forward to this week and after a run of one win from four games and a 2-0 loss to Levante, they are now just 3 points ahead with a game in hand.

Atletico’s Champions League form has been nothing to write home about. They only managed two wins in their Group, both against Salzburg. Simeone’s men could only manage 1-1 and 0-0 draws vs Lokomotiv Moscow and they took just a point from their two clashes with Bayern Munich. They still managed to qualify thanks to their 2-0 final day win vs Salzburg.

However, I think that Atletico will relish playing against a possession based team like Chelsea. They had more possession in both recent games against Levante but they failed to win either of them. Diego Simeone’s side won’t have any issues with letting Chelsea dominate the ball and the likes of Suarez and Llorente will look to punish any mistakes. As ever with Atletico, it probably won’t be pretty but more often than not, they are very effective at what they do.

First Big Test For Tuchel’s Blues

Since taking the reins from Frank Lampard Thomas Tuchel has steadied the ship at Stamford Bridge. The German tactician has already implemented the style he wants and there have been some encouraging signs in his first few games. Chelsea have yet to lose under Tuchel (W5 D2) but they haven’t exactly been playing top sides. Their wins came against Newcastle, Barnsley, Sheffield Utd, Burnley and a badly out of sorts Spurs. They only managed a 1-1 draw vs Southampton at the weekend.

Atletico will provide a much sterner test of Chelsea’s credentials and this clash will give a much better idea of where they are as a team. Under Lampard, Chelsea navigated their Champions League group with ease. After a 0-0 draw with Sevilla they won four in a row and a 1-1 draw vs Krasnodar was enough to secure top spot. A 4-0 away win at Sevilla was their best display and they would love to get a similar result in Bucharest.

In each of Tuchel’s games in charge so far Chelsea have dominated possession. They have had at least 65% of the ball in all but one of their matches and over 70% in the majority of them. Just like their opponents, Chelsea will play with three centre backs and two wing backs but their set up will be more offensive than Atletico’s. They’ll need to take every chance they create if they are to come away with anything on Tuesday night.

Clash Of Styles

This should be a real cat and mouse contest with Chelsea having the lion’s share of the possession and Atletico waiting to pounce on any errors. As you can see in the table below, Atletico struggled to break Lokomotiv down when they had the most possession and their best results came when their opponents had more of the ball. Frank Lampard was in charge of Chelsea for the matches below and under Tuchel they are even keener to retain possession.

Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea: UCL Possession Stats and Results

Atletico Madrid and Chelsea have played each other six times in the Champions League since 2009. Chelsea have two wins, Atletico one and three of the previous meetings have finished level. They most recently played in the Group Stage in 2017 when Chelsea won 2-1 in Madrid before holding on for a 1-1 draw in the return fixture in London. As far as injuries are concerned, Chelsea will be without experienced defender Thiago Silva and Pulisic is a doubt. Gimenez, Carrasco and Herrera are all doubts for Atletico.

Atletico Look Overpriced

When I first looked at the odds for this fixture I was surprised to see that Atletico were so big. 7/4 looks a very generous price for a team with so much Champions League experience, even if they have to play at a neutral venue tonight. Okay, they haven’t exactly been setting the world alight in recent weeks in La Liga. However, they will be highly motivated to get a positive result to take to London for the second leg.

All the money has been for Chelsea in the lead up to this match but I am still not convinced by them. Yes, Tuchel made a great start but The Blues have had a handy schedule. This will be their toughest assignment to date by far. I think they will huff and puff on Tuesday night but they won’t blow Atleti’s defence down. I think Simeone’s men can nick at least a goal and they can shut Chelsea out in the process. Back Atletico to win to nil at odds of 3/1 with multiple firms.  

Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea Tip: Atletico madrid to win to nil @ 3/1  

Key Quotes – Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea

Diego Simeone –  “”Yannick’s (Carrasco) got a knock that he picked up against Granada and played through it against Levante. That’s why he was substituted when he was – we wanted to protect him. Unfortunately he’s still got a problem and we’ll see how it develops over the next few days.”

Thomas Tuchel – “Of course it’s a big test. They are an experienced club at his level with an experienced coach. Hopefully it brings out the best in us. We will do things our way, they will do things their way. It’s clear what you get when you play Atletico: fighting, experience, a team with a good mentality.”

Dave Stevos