2021 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter

This is the third instalment of our four-part series of stats-based previews of the Blue Riband races at the Cheltenham Festival. I already used stats to narrow the fields for the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase, now it is the turn of the 2021 Stayers’ Hurdle. At the time of writing a total of 40 horses remained after both Ronald Pump and Décor Irlandais were taken out by their trainers. Benie Des Dieux, Next Destination and Champ are also likely to run in different races than this one so that leaves 37. So, will the stats matter for this year’s race? Find out below.

2021 Stayers Hurdle Stats: Age

Since 2009 the Stayers’ Hurdle has been won by horses aged between 6yo and 9yo. In recent years 7 has been the lucky number with the last four winners being that age. A number of horses fail to make it past this first hurdle. 12yo Donna’s Diamond is discounted, as is the admirable 11yo Tobefair and the rank outsider Younevercall.

That leaves four 10yos still entered in the race, among them a couple of very big names. The Storyteller is fancied by many shrewdies to run a big race but he is cut, as are both Bacardys and Bachasson. A total of 7 horses are eliminated from the race at this stage due to their ages, leaving us with 32 contenders.

Cut: Donna’s Diamond; Tobefair; Bacardys; Bachasson; Younevercall; The Storyteller; Lil Rockerfeller.

Cheltenham Form

The importance of previous form at Cheltenham cannot be overlooked. Every single winner since 2009 has had at least one run at the track, while 8 of the previous 12 winners had won at Cheltenham. For this article, I’ll be discounting horses that have either never run at Cheltenham and also those that have run here in the past but failed to place.

This is another stage that sees the exit of some talented horses. Outsiders Jacamar, Captain Zebo, Reserve Tank and French raider Paul’s Saga all fail to make the grade. Those who are counted out at shorter odds include the likes of Diol Ker, Sams Profile, McFabulous, Beacon Edge and Flooring Porter. Kemboy, a gutsy winner at Leopardstown last time, is another one with no placed Cheltenham form in the book.

Cut: Jacamar; Captain Zebo; Reserve Tank; Main Fact; French Dynamite; Emitom; Paul’s Saga; If The Cap Fits; Diol Ker; Sams Profile; McFabulous; Beacon Edge; Kemboy; Flooring Porter.

Class

Since 2009 all but one of the dozen Stayers’ Hurdle winners had at least one win at Grade 2 level or higher. So, when we use this metric to narrow the field it enables us to count another few horses out. 200/1 shot Heaven Help us misses out at this point, as does The Mighty Don. I backed Honest Vic ante-post for this race after his handicap win in October. However, he is another one that fails to make it past this stage.

Thomas Darby, who could be an interesting outsider on good ground, is discounted. Another two horses that have yet to score in a Grade 2 or better are Imperial Alcazar and Great White Shark. So, that leaves us with another ten to choose from. I will next use recent form to whittle away another few runners.

Cut: Heaven Help Us; The Mighty Don; Honest Vic; Thomas Darby; Imperial Alcazar; Great White Shark.

Recent Form

If you look back at every winner of the Stayers’ Hurdle since 2009 it quickly becomes apparent that recent winning form is important. 10 of the 12 winners during that period had won at least once during the season prior to scoring in the big one. That means former festival winner City Island is eliminated after a couple of poor efforts this season. Former runner-up Sam Spinner is another casualty and so is former Grade 1 winning chaser Itchy Feet.

Kim Bailey’s Vinndication unseated last time out and could only finish 2nd on his comeback. So, he is counted out too. However, the highest-profile horse to miss out at this stage is last year’s winner Lisnagar Oscar. He shaped well last time but the stats say that a repeat of his thrilling win in 2020 is not on the cards.

Cut: City Island; Sam Spinner; Itchy Feet; Vinndication; Lisnagar Oscar.

2021 Stayers’ Hurdle: The Verdict

And then there were five. It is no surprise that the 2019 winner Paisley Park is still standing, as is his main market rival Thyme Hill. Last year’s Pertemps winner Sire Du Berlais has also made it to the final five and he is joined by Roksana and Fury Road.

Paisley Park and Thyme Hill are very closely matched on this season’s form. It is 1-1 so far with Paisley avenging his defeat on good ground at Newbury on much more testing ground at Ascot. The ground could well be the determining factor as to who comes out on top in this race.

Roksana is also entered in the Mares’ Hurdle but after her wide-margin win last time connections could be very tempted to have a crack at this instead. She is entitled to run after her last three efforts and she could be very dangerous getting weight from the boys.

Elliott Pair Look Overpriced

Sire Du Berlais was an impressive winner of the Pertemps last season off 15d. He landed a 20f Grade 2 at Navan on his return before disappointing at Leopardstown over Xmas. However, you could forgive him that as he has never produced his best form at the Dublin track. He has won 2/3 at the Festival, both at 3 miles, and he is an intriguing runner.

So is Elliott’s other remaining horse, Fury Road. He lost nothing in defeat behind Beacon Edge at Navan last time out. The son of Stowaway ran a massive race over 3 miles in the Albert Bartlett last season, finishing just a neck behind Monkfish. Once there is soft in the ground description he is capable of running a big one.

Fury To Land Knockout Blow

So who wins? Paisley Park has obvious claims as he bids to regain his crown. He looked on the way back to something like his best last time and a repeat of that would surely see both him and Thyme Hill in the shake-up. Roksana deserves her place in the race but she has yet to tackle 3 miles at Cheltenham and that has to be a worry.

I think that Fury Road may well be the one to be on each way at the current odds. The form of his Albert Bartlett 3rd is rock solid and he had Thyme Hill over a length behind him that day. Sire Du Berlais cannot be discounted either as the form of his second Pertemps win when conceding weight to The Storyteller is top-notch too. However, I think the Gigginstown horse has the potential to beat Paisley Park with Sire Du Berlais and Thyme Hill chasing those two home.

2021 Stayers Hurdle Stats Prediction

1. Fury Road (e/w tip @ 25/1)
2. Paisley Park.
3. Sire Du Berlais.
4. Thyme Hill