Aintree Festival Saturday Preview and Tips – DS
Aintree Festival Saturday Tips
It was a decent day for us on Friday. Hitman ran a massive race to nick 2nd at 12/1 and Francky Du Berlais also got place money at 28s. Bold Endeavour was backed but he was pulled up early, unfortunately. It is Grand National day on Saturday but there is plenty more top class action to get stuck into. Hopefully we can turn a profit again, check out Dave Stevos’ Aintree Festival Saturday tips below.
2.25 – Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The first live ITV race on Grand National day at Aintree is this 20f Novice. Friend of the blog Colonel Mustard will bid to gain his first win at Graded level. I’m still a bit sick that this horse didn’t run in the Supreme. Yes, he would have struggled to beat Constitution Hill but he would have given him a better race than the vast majority of the field. Lorna Fowler’s charge instead ran a mighty race in the County Hurdle. He finished 3rd behind State Man and it was an excellent run considering it was his first ever experience of the hustle and bustle of a big field festival handicap.
Will this step up to 20f suit? If it were Cheltenham we were racing at I’d say no. However, at Aintree he should be fine. More importantly, he’ll absolutely relish the nice ground in Liverpool. He was running big races in spite of the soft ground, not because of it and when he has had good in the ground description he has run huge races at Ascot and also at the Festival.
Turn Form Around
If he is to win, he needs to turn his Dublin Racing Festival form with Three Stripe Life around. He was 6L behind the Elliott horse at Leopardstown but I think this ground will suit the Colonel a lot better. Walking On Air is the potential fly in the ointment. Nicky Henderson’s charge won doing absolute handstands on his hurdling debut in January and connections will be hoping that the decision to swerve Cheltenham pays dividends.
At bigger odds, Nells Son shouldn’t be discounted either. He’ll appreciate the nice ground at Aintree and he will relish this step up to 20f. He got up in the dying strides to pip North Lodge at Kelso last time when we were on and on that evidence, another couple of furlongs should show him in an even better light. I’m not sure he should be twice the price of North Lodge, even with a 5lb swing in the weights. However, I think 12/1 is also far too big about Colonel Mustard and he is worth backing e/w.
Aintree Festival Saturday Tips: Colonel Mustard e/w @ 12/1 NAP (4 Places)
3.00 – Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
A frustratingly small field of just seven will line up behind the tape for this Grade 1 Chase. It is hard to get away from the claims of Edwardstone. Alan King’s son of Kayf Tara has gone from strength to strength this season, culminating in a brilliant win at the Cheltenham Festival. His form stands up to scrutiny and he is the best horse in this race. However, this will be his seventh start of the season. Will it be one run too many? It is hard to know but he has been on the go since last October and it might just be worth taking him on in the hope he is over the top.
The biggest threat on paper looks to be Gentleman De Mee. Willie Mullins’ charge didn’t go to Cheltenham and he looked a serious prospect when beating a decent horse in Grange Walk at Navan by 16L last time out. He is rated just 3lbs lower than the jolly and it’ll be fascinating to see how he copes with this big step up in class. Third Time Lucki has twice faced Edwardstone and tasted defeat on both occasions. Can he turn the form around? If Edwardstone runs to form, then the answer is no.
Pacy Pleasure
At much bigger odds, For Pleasure looks the most likely of the outsiders to perhaps sneak into the frame. Alex Hales had his first ever G1 winner here earlier this week. His last two runners have won so his horses are in flying form. This horse was 3rd for him at Cheltenham last season and he will be much more at home on this nice ground than he was in the Grand Annual last month on heavy.
He proved no match for Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki at Warwick in February. However, previously at Doncaster he was bang there with Third Time Lucki when he fell at the last and while he may not have won if he stood up, he could well have got to within 3 or 4 lengths of him.
Kielan Woods will go hard and fast from the front on this lad. If he jumps accurately and doesn’t race too freely, maybe he can get one or two of these out of their comfort zones. He isn’t one for maximum stakes but at odds of 66/1, he should give us a decent run for our money. Hopefully he can hang on for a place.
Aintree Festival Saturday Tips: For Pleasure e/w @ 66/1
3.35 – Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1)
Flooring Porter destroyed his rivals at Cheltenham, is there another demolition job on the cards today? Gavin Cromwell’s stable star is 7/4 to repeat the dose and Danny Mullins will be looking to work his magic again. Last year after he won the Stayers’ he ran at Punchestown and hated the track. Connections have decided to come here instead this year and going left handed will suit him a lot better. He did have a hard race at the festival so that is a worry but if he can hit the same heights again, he’ll be extremely hard to peg back.
Last year’s winner Thyme Hill is back to defend his crown. He chased Flooring Porter home at Cheltenham and he has 2.75L to find. There is no reason why he shouldn’t be thereabouts again but the bookies haven’t missed him and he is only 3/1. Champ won a C&D Grade 1 novice here in 2019 and he ran with credit in the Stayers’ to nick 4th. He has 4L to find with Flooring Porter and 1.75L to find with Thyme Hill.
Koshari Overpriced
Sir Thomas Darby would be tempting at 20s only for Olly Murphy’s form. All three of his runners here on Thursday pulled up. So, the one I’ll take a chance on is Koshari. This fella was a shock winner of a C&D handicap off 149 in November. His next start came in the Stayers’ Hurdle and he was far from disgraced in 7th. He was only 7.75L behind Flooring Porter and he has less than 4L to find with Champ.
That was his first run for 4 months and it looks now like Christie was using it as a prep to sharpen his charge up for this race. This track and ground will suit him a lot better than Cheltenham and his run there proved he could be competitive at this level. He’ll be well suited by the strong pace that Flooring Porter will set too. He’ll be dropped out early, hopefully he finishes well and runs into the money at odds of 22/1.
Aintree Festival Saturday Tips: Koshari e/w @ 22/1
4.15 – Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
A wide open looking handicap and I’m going to take a chance on Exelerator Express. This 40/1 shot is trained by a shrewd handler in Neil Mulholland and Sam Twiston-Davies rides. This 8yo son of Poliglote was decent over hurdles but he has improved hoof over fist since tackling the bigger obstacles. He started off in chases off a mark of 120 in late 2020 but a string of excellent performances last Spring/Summer saw him finish off his campaign rated 145.
If you look back through his form he has come up against some solid horses. On his second handicap start he was beat 7L by Funambule Sivola, to whom he was giving 7lbs. He chased home Francky Du Berlais in the Summer Plate (21.5f gd) and he ran a cracker in the Topham for us on Friday. Mulholland’s charge then stepped up to 23f and hacked up, beating Pink Eyed Pedro by 12L at Worcester.
If you look at this fella’s form, he is most effective on a flat, left handed track. He flopped at Chepstow in October but that is an undulating, testing course. Aintree should be right up his street and he got 2lbs back from the handicapper for that run. This horse is unexposed over today’s distance on suitable tracks and he has run well when fresh in the past. At odds of 40/1, Exelerator Express is worth chancing each way.
Aintree Festival Saturday Tips: Exelerator Express e/w @ 40/1 NB (5 Places)
5.15 – Aintree Grand National (Grade 3)
The big one. I have already put up a couple of horses for this race. You can read why I fancy Dingo Dollar here and Domaine De L’Isle here. I have also written a stats/trends based preview and you can read that here. The one I am sweetest on is Dingo Dollar. The ground has come for him and he should make a very bold bid from the front. Hopefully Domaine doesn’t get too far behind in the early stages. If he is within 20L of the leaders jumping the last he will hopefully stay on to nick some place money.
My only other bet is going to be Anibale Fly at 100/1. Tony Martin has been on the comeback trail this season and this horse has unfinished business in this race. As a 12yo, the stats say he can’t win but he’ll love the ground and he is on an extremely good mark. Last year the race was a write off and he just never got into it from the outset off 155. He made a mistake at the first and that was it.
C&D Form
I don’t think he should be judged too harshly on that and he is back for one more go off 148. In 2019 he was 5th behind Tiger Roll off 164. In 2018 he finished 4th behind the same horse off 159. He followed up that poor run in 2021 with a superb effort off 145 behind Mister Fogpatches at Punchestown (31f gd/yld) and he had Freewheelin Dylan behind him off levels. He is just 1lbs worse off with him here.
You can forget about all of his runs this season over inadequate trips. This fella needs a marathon these days and those outings were presumably just to get him to peak fitness for this. Luke Dempsey got to know him on two of those runs and he gets the leg up this evening. Maybe his time has passed in terms of winning but if he can get into a rhythm and put in a clear round, Anibale Fly could outrun his odds of 100/1.
