Aintree Festival Thursday Preview and Tips – DS
Aintree Festival Thursday Tips
Last weekend was a bit disappointing but we at least landed one winner. Return Ticket won bravely at 14/1 but it went downhill after that. Lord Accord ran a stinker and Valadom just ran out of steam. Socialist Agenda was outclassed and unfortunately, One More Fleurie picked up a bad injury in the Scottish National. We are back over the jumps this weekend with three days of racing from Liverpool. Check out Dave Stevos’ Aintree Festival Thursday tips below.
2.20 – Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
It will be beautiful, good to soft ground at Aintree this weekend. A spill of rain earlier this week eased conditions slightly and there could be showers tomorrow but the ground shouldn’t be too bad. The opening race on Thursday is this Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle and Triumph 3rd Pied Piper is the 11/10 fav for Russell and Elliott.
Gordon Elliott’s horses have been running below form and he only had his first winner since the Wednesday of Cheltenham at Ayr last weekend. He had a few go close at Fairyhouse earlier this week so maybe he has turned the corner but you couldn’t be backing any of his with huge confidence.
Unexposed Brazil
Brazil is 9/4 and Paudie Roche’s charge upset the plot horse Gaelic Warrior in the Fred Winter. He had Too Friendly almost 5L behind him in 5th and he is 12lbs better off with him here. The son of Galileo remains unexposed over hurdles after winning his last two and it would not be a surprise if there was more to come.
Petit Tonnerre represents the same owner and he won nicely at Market Rasen on his UK debut (16.5f sft). His two French wins came on soft too but the son of Waldpark was well beaten on his only try on good to soft. To be fair to him that was his debut so perhaps it was a lack of experience rather than the ground that caused him to run poorly. Even so, any rain that falls will be in his favour.
Rain won’t suit Knight Salute though. I fancied him to run a big race in the Triumph but he ran flat. There is no doubt he is better than that and the return to a flat track could help. If there is good in the description, I can see him bouncing back and maybe running into a place.
French Import
Fautinette is a French import who is unbeaten after three starts in her home country. Those wins came on soft and heavy ground and the form is hard to weigh up. Her last win was franked by the runner up (won next two starts) and she is an intriguing runner. However, she hasn’t run for 322 days and this is a massive ask on her first run of the season. She is probably best watched today.
At the prices, perhaps Impulsive One can run into the frame. Trained by Nicky Henderson, he flopped last time out at Kempton when 26L behind Knight Salute. However, he didn’t give his true running that day. He was only 2L behind him at Kempton in October and 1L behind him at Doncaster in December.
He clearly likes flat tracks, as he showed when winning a Listed heat easily at Musselburgh (Inca Prince 19L behind). Maybe that below par run at Kempton came too soon because he is a lot better than that. Ground will be fine, he’s had a 40 day break to freshen up and while the Irish raiders will be hard to beat, at odds of 40/1 hopefully he can sneak into a place.
Aintree Festival Thursday Tips: Impulsive One e/w @ 40/1
2.55 – Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1)
This is a cracking renewal of the Betway Bowl. The winners of the last two renewals lock horns yet again. Clan Des Obeaux landed the prize in 2021 in what was a very poor renewal. In 2019 Kemboy beat the Nicholls horse into 2nd and connections will be hoping for a repeat on Thursday. However, this is a much deeper renewal than either of those races and it is a proper Grade 1 chase this year.
The bookies make Protektorat the 10/1 favourite. He ran into a bad 3rd in the Gold Cup and it has to be a worry that he had such a hard race just 20 days ago. On the flipside, he produced a career best at this track in December (25f sft) and he is 2/2 at Aintree overall. If his Gold Cup run hasn’t left a mark, he could confirm his status as Britain’s best staying chaser.
Can Conflated Bounce Back?
Conflated won the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. He wasn’t out of it when falling two out in the Ryanair and it is no surprise to see connections stepping back up in distance. They were afraid to take on 26f in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham but 25f around Aintree isn’t anywhere near as demanding. Gordon Eliott’s form is a worry but this horse is here on merit and if he produces the level of performance he showed at Leopardstown, he could be hard to beat.
Kemboy has 12L to find with him on that Irish Gold Cup form. He did run well at Leopardstown behind Galvin in December but four of his last five runs have seen him beat a combined distance of 184.5L. He isn’t the horse he once was and while this track plays to his strengths, the percentage call is to oppose him at odds of 11/2.
Closely Matched
Eldorado Allen and Royale Pagaille are closely matched on their Denman Chase form at Newbury. On that occasion the Tizzard horse beat Royal Pagaille by 2.25L and off the same terms, I can’t see the Williams horse turning the form around. If there was a deluge and it turned to proper soft ground, that would hugely enhance Royal Pagaille’s prospects. However, with conditions as they are described now, Eldorado Allen is preferred of those two horses.
To be honest, it is hard to get away from those at the head of the market. Of those at double figure odds, Nuts Well makes most appeal. He is a Grade 2 course winner, he was runner up in a G1 over 20f at this meeting last year and he finally proved he could stay 3 miles at Kelso last time. The Hamiltons have an excellent record at Aintree (3/9 with two 2nds) and at odds of 40/1, hopefully a few of the more fancied horses falter and Nuts Well can stay on late for a place. Keep stakes small though as this is an extremely competitive heat.
Aintree Festival Thursday Tips: Nuts Well e/w @ 40/1
3.30 – Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)
This is another fascinating race, even with just seven runners. The Champion Hurdle 2nd and 3rd renew rivalries and the bookies can’t spilt Epatante and Zanahiyr. Neither horse has ever run over this distance. The longest trip Epatante tried was 17f in a novice at Exeter (which she won).
Gordon Elliott’s Zanahiyr has raced over 18f and won and on run styles, you would imagine that he’ll be better suited by this new trip. There was a length between the two of them at Cheltenham and there is unlikely to be much between them again in this.
Brewin’upastorm has had a good season and he likes Aintree. He is 2/4 this term, he was beat a short head at Fontwell last time and he was in the process of running a huge race when falling at the last at Cheltenham. Olly Murphy’s charge could only manage 5th in this last season but this is not as deep a race and if the top two don’t get the trip, he could well be the one to benefit.
Go For Glory
At the prices, I think Glory And Fortune is worth backing at around 16/1. This horse shaped as though this trip would suit when staying on very nicely late on for 5th in the Champion Hurdle. The Betfair Hurdle winner did try the distance earlier on this season at Newbury but he just didn’t quite get home on that testing track. Aintree is flatter and easier and he should have no issues getting 20f around here.
I put him up for the Betfair Hurdle on the back of his brilliant run behind Epatante at Kempton. If he didn’t make a mess of the second last I think he would have won that race and they meet on the same terms again here. He only has 4L to find with Zanahiyr on their Cheltenham run and at odds of 16/1, he represents a bit of e/w value in a tricky looking race.
Aintree Festival Thursday Tips: Glory And Fortune e/w @ 16/1 NB (3 Places Lads/Coral)
4.05 – Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2)
This is a race that wrecks my head. Last year Cousin Pascal won at 66/1, a horse I had backed more than once in his Irish days. In 2019 I was at Aintree and backed Coastal Tiep e/w at 66/1 on track. Of course, the on course bookies only paid three places and guess where Coastal Tiep finished? In 4th, of course. The sponsors Betway are paying 7 places this year and a couple of other bookies are paying out on 6 places. Cousin Pascal has obvious claims again but I am going to take a chance on one at a massive price.
Ground To Suit
Ciaran Murphy is having a season to remember. He has Enjoy D’allen in the big one on Saturday and he also runs two in this. TJ Love prefers Down The Highway and he has some decent P2P form in the book. However, his best runs have come on much softer ground than he gets today and Michael’s Pick should be better suited to the prevailing conditions.
He comes into the race on the back of two solid runs in Irish Hunter Chases at Thurles and Downpatrick. At Thurles (25f yld) he was beat 3.5L by A Long Long Story. He had 2/11 shot Good Bye Sam 1.25L back in 3rd and he finished 4.5L 2nd behind Champion Hunter Chase winner Billaway on his previous outing. Next time he made no mistake at Downpatrick, beating Handy Headon by a short head.
This son of Presenting’s upturn in form has come since he started wearing headgear. At Thurles Murphy applied both blinkers and a tongue tie and the equipment seems to have made a massive difference to this horse. With an official rating of 114 he clearly has a huge amount to find but he is bred to be better than that and at odds of 100/1, he is worth chancing each way for small stakes.
Aintree Festival Thursday Tips: Michael’s Pick e/w @ 100/1 (6 Places B365)
4.40 – Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
The show closes on ITV on Thursday with this Grade 3 handicap chase. A maximum field of 18 will go to post and the Grand Annual 3rd, Frero Banbou, is the favourite. Trip and ground look fine for him and he ran well in this last season when 4th behind Editeur Du Gite off 137. He is now 5lbs higher (and 8lbs higher than his last win) and he’ll need to find another bit of improvement to win off his current handicap mark.
One that could be potentially well handicapped off 141 is Dancing On My Own. Henry De Bromhead’s charge was beaten out of sight last time at Cheltenham. However, heavy ground was never going to suit. It was similar ground when he fell at Punchestown and it was too soft for him on his first run back from a 3 month break in January at Naas. The last time he got half decent ground on a flat, left handed track this horse beat Buddy Rich in a Beginners’ Chase at Killarney.
Aintree To Suit
When this horse has gone left handed on yielding or better over 16f/17f he has some serious form. He was 4L behind Klassical Dream in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown, 0.5L behind Buildmeupbuttercup in a maiden hurdle at Navan, 7L behind Klassical Dream in a G1 Novice at Leopardstown and he won at Killarney in October. His only other win came going left handed on a flat track too (Wexford) and while it was heavy ground that day, he is a horse that definitely prefers a sounder surface (beat combined distance of 50L both other completions on heavy).
Looking at how he has been campaigned this year, it looks like De Bromhead has had a Spring campaign in mind. The ground went on him at Cheltenham but it looks like conditions will be in his favour in Liverpool. His dam was placed in a Listed bumper at Aintree in 2009, hopefully Dancing On My Own can follow in her hoofsteps. At odds of 28/1, the son of Milan is the e/w pick.
