Ascot and Haydock Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Ascot and Haydock Saturday Tips
I feared last weekend would be a struggle and so it transpired. Water Of Leith lost his race in the prelims but he is a better horse than that. Allardyce ran alright up until the last 2f when he got tired. De Vegas Kid ran okay but the race wasn’t run to suit him. Bealach ran a stinker but the most frustrating one was our NAP Mc Alpine. His jockey dropped the reins late on and it surely cost him the race. At least he held on for place money. The fare is of a much higher standard this weekend, check out Dave Stevos’ Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips below…
1.50 Ascot: Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
We dive straight into the good stuff at Ascot but unfortunately only 6 horses have been declared for the 3 mile Reynoldstown Chase. The bookies are taking zero chances and it looks an open renewal. Severano is the favourite and the top rated in the race with a mark of 147. His progression came to a shuddering halt behind Paint The Dream in a handicap last time (22f sft) and he is no banker to stay this trip.
The next best in the betting is Full Back and he has zero stamina concerns. He arrives in great form having won his last two and he is an interesting contender for the Moores. Remastered is another progressive sort that comes into this in search of a hat-trick. He has won at 24f and he should enjoy the testing consitions at Ascot.
Connor Brace gets a big opportunity aboard Hurricane Harvey. He carries a 5lb penalty after his 24f G2 win last time out at Doncaster (24f gd/sft). Ground on the soft side is absolutely fine for him too and he is proven at this level. Demachine and Kalooki both ran poorly last time but if they are on going days, they have the ability to make an impact too. However, nothing appeals as being particularly overpriced and this is a race best left alone.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday: No Bet
2.05 Haydock: Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2)
The second live race of the day on ITV is another Grade 2, the 24.5f Rendlesham Hurdle. A field of 8 are due to go to post and this race will be a stepping-stone towards the Stayers’ Hurdle in March for a couple of these. Last year’s winner of that contest, Lisnagar Oscar, has to carry a penalty and he could find things tough. He has the highest official rating but both his runs this season have been below par. He is tough to fancy in his current form.
The one to be on here could be last year’s wide margin winner Emitom. He went on to finish a solid 4th in the big one in March and he steps up to his optimum trip for the first time this season. He has had a wind-op since his wide margin defeat at Ffos Las in October and he has run well when fresh in the past. His trainer Warren Greatrex is in good form, sending out two winners and a 3rd from his last five runners. Gavin Sheehan returns in the saddle and he has form figures of 1112614 aboard this son of Gold Well.
Itchy Feet A Danger
The biggest danger at the weights has to be Grade 1 winning chaser Itchy Feet. He is rated 1lb higher than Emitom and he gets 6lb from him. Olly Murphy’s charge has finished 2nd in Grade 2 chases the last twice and he has shaped as though a step up to 3 miles would suit. However, he hasn’t won over the smaller obstacles since 2018. Even though he gets weight from Emitom, I think the Greatrex horse has a more solid profile for this race. On The Blind Side is another one with claims. However, at odds of 9/2 a small win bet on Emitom is advised.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday: Emitom win @ 9/2
2.25 Ascot: Swinley Handicap Chase (Listed)
Venetia Williams has won two of the last four renewals of this Listed 24f handicap chase. It looks like she has a great chance of making it three from five with Yalltari this year. This 10yo son of Kayf Tara has improved in each of his three runs this term. He was pulled up over 24f at Bangor on his return in November. However, it was a better run when he finished 4th behind subsequent Welsh National hero Secret Reprieve on his second outing at Chepstow (23.5f hvy). Last time at Ascot he produced his best run of the year when beat just 5L in 4th.
The handicapper has left his mark alone after that promising run and he has won off 2lb higher in the past. Yalltari has run well in Grade 2 company at Ascot too over 24f, finishing just 4L behind Mister Malarky in the Reynoldstown on this card back in 2019. I have a sneaky feeling that his season has been geared towards this valuable race. Hugh Nugent takes 5lb off meaning he is effectively running off a 7lb lower mark than he was for his last victory. Soft/heavy ground is absolutely fine, he is well handicapped and he likes the track. At odds of 11/1, Yalltari is the e/w NAP of the day.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday: Yalltari e/w @ 11/1 NAP (4 Places)
2.40 Haydock: Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
The weights were released for the Grand National early this week and it should be all systems go for Tiger Roll. The handicapper wasn’t overly tough on the hat-trick seeker and Gordon Elliott will be happy enough with his rating. If the ground looks like coming up good, Alpha Des Obeaux could go well at a price.
He ran a blinder behind Walk On The Mill and Kimberlite Candy in the Becher on his last visit to Aintree. He is now 23lb better off with Kimberlite Candy for an 8L gap. His recent form on bad ground in Ireland is admittedly horrendous but he is quadruple the odds of Kimberlite Candy at 80/1. If the ground is any way decent he could surprise with a bold showing.
Stamina Will Be Key
An affinity for bad ground and lots of stamina will be required to win this Grand National Trial. Lord Du Mesnil was 2nd in this last year on heavy off 147. He is 2lb higher today and it has to be a worry that he has reportedly suffered from post-race heat stress on 2 of his last 4 starts. The Two Amigos is another with a likeable profile but he just seems to be in the handicappers grip.
At the odds it is impossible to get away from the claims of the old boy Perfect Candidate. He won by half the track over C&D last time out off a mark of 134. The handicapper gave him an 8lb hike for that 45L cakewalk. He is now a 14yo so time is bound to catch up with him at some point. However, he has finished in the first two in four of his last five runs. Fergal O’Brien has managed to keep him sweet and he has had a nice break to get over his last run.
The son of Winged Love is a real mudlark and he loves Haydock. His form figures over this course and distance read 121 and he is a few pounds better off with Lord Du Mesnil who beat him into 2nd in December 2019. Paddy Brennan maintains the partnership and he gets a great tune out of this horse. William Hill have gone 18/1 about Perfect Candidate and with 4 places on offer, he is the e/w selection.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday: Perfect Candidate e/w @ 18/1 (4 Places W Hill)
2021 Aintree Grand National Ante-Post: Alpha Des Obeaux e/w @ 80/1 (5 Places B365)
3.00 Ascot: Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The one I like at a nice price in this 19f handicap hurdle is Thibault for Adam West and Richard Patrick. This horse has done nothing but improve since joining West from Kim Bailey. He won his first two handicap hurdles off marks of 109 and 116. He was running a decent race when unseating at the last at Taunton off 123. The son of Kayf Tara is 1lb ‘wrong’ at the weights today. However, the fact that Adam West has opted not to claim weight off him suggests that he believes he could still be capable of more improvement.
He carries a feather weight of just 10 stone which is a big plus on ground like this. The 8yo ran well when 4th on his only previous run at the track when he was with his former yard. Thibault is clearly still in good heart judging by his cosy win at Lingfield in a Jumper’s Bumper at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago. Trip and ground are both fine and he has run well at the track before. At odds of 22/1 an each way interest is advised.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday: Thibault e/w @ 22/1 NB (6 places Skybet)
3.18 Wincanton: Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2)
ITV will be showing a solitary race from Wincanton, the 15.5f Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle. It is a small but select field of six and the ground is going to be heavy. Four of them look to hold claims and Song For Someone and Goshen are putting their Champion Hurdle credentials on the line. The conditions of the race favour the latter horse but he has yet to rediscover his mojo since that heart-breaking incident at the Festival last year.
Song For Someone, on the other hand, comes into the race in sparkling form. He will be looking to win his fourth Grade 2 in a row for Tom Symonds. He beat Silver Streak by a nose on soft at Cheltenham last time (17f) and that run proved he belongs at the top table in this division. The big worry for his supporters is the heavy ground. He has run well on it before but he has never won on worse than soft.
At the prices I think Navajo Pass has the least to prove. This horse owes us nothing after his easy win at Musselburgh when we were on at 10/1. A cracking 4th in the Triumph last season, Donald McCain’s charge showed that was no fluke when lowering the colours of Buveur D’Air and Ballyandy last time out. He made all that day at Haydock but he doesn’t necessarily have to lead and he should have zero issues on the ground. 4/1 looks a more than fair price and Navajo Pass is the pick.
Wincanton Saturday Tip: Navajo Pass win @ 4/1
3.35 Ascot: Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1)
The Betfair Ascot Chase is the feature on ITV this Saturday. The enigmatic Cyrname is odds on to land the £56k first prize for Paul Nicholls and Cobden. This mercurial son of Nickname has bundles of talent, as his rating of 172 suggests. However, consistency is not his strong suit and he threw in a stinker last time out when pulled up in the King George.
It looked like this fella had the world at his feet when he won three on the bounce at the start of 2019. Altior and Waiting Patiently were among his victims but he has won just one of his last four starts and he failed to complete in two of those. He’d prefer better ground than he gets today too and I think he could be vulnerable.
Strongly Run Race
I am a big fan of Dashel Drasher but he is unlikely to get an easy lead with Master Tommytucker in the field. Both horses like to get on with things in front so this is going to be run at a frantic pace. On this ground I would fancy Dashel Drasher to overcome the Nicholls horse. However, they may well cut each other’s throats in front and set it up for a closer.
At much bigger odds perhaps Riders Onthe Storm can bounce back to form in the race he won last year. Cyrname fell in that contest but Nigel Twiston-Davies charge was going to win anyway. He was going well when falling in the Ryanair at Cheltenham and he’ll appreciate the return to testing ground. Riders Onthe Storm is 2/2 over C&D and the race should be run to his liking. If he puts in a clear round of jumping he could put up a bold defence of his crown at odds of 20/1.
