Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Preview and Tips – DS
Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Preview
We had a poor day last Sunday at the Curragh. Quar Shaman has hammered in the betting but didn’t show much. Picture Of The City was another plunger and she showed a lot more but could only manager 4th under tender handling. She’s one to follow. Sioux Spirit didn’t stay and she’ll be back in trip soon you’d imagine. Shanroe ran better than it looked, he was just never put into it. Hopefully we can bounce back on this bumper weekend. Check out Dave’s Ascot and Newmarket Saturday preview below. Get his Longchamp Preview here.
1.31 Newmarket – EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
Looking at the weather forecast, the ground is likely to be just on the soft side at all three tracks today. That’ll be music to the ears of Gavin Cromwell as conditions should be ideal for his Irish raider, Dha Leath. This filly has been a very progressive sort this season. She always shaped like she had ability as a 3yo and a win off 59 for Garvan Donnelly at Navan (10f sft) back in October of last year really seemed to give her confidence.
She moved to Cromwell in the off season and she returned with a half length win off 68 at Limerick on good. Positive tactics didn’t work next time at Leopardstown but she soon bounced back with successive wins at Gowran (9.5f yld) and Roscommon (10f sft/hvy) off 73 and then 77 respectively.
The 12f trip proved too far on her next start at Galway and to be honest, I thought the handicapper might have her measure. However, she ran an absolute cracker back at the Curragh on Champions Weekend, beat just 2.75L off 83. If she is still in the same form, Dha Leath is capable of going close again here and at 16/1, she is the each way selection.
Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Dha Leath e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
1.51 Ascot – Rous Stakes (Listed)
Method was my e/w NAP last time out and he landed place money in 4th. It was a much improved effort behind Mitbaahy, Teresa Mendoza and Manaccan and it looks a good move keeping him at this 5f trip. The son of Mehmas has been racing on fast ground all season and the rain that fell on Friday could well bring about another bit of improvement from Martyn Meade’s horse.
His last start on soft saw him chase Winter Power home in a Newmarket G3 (5f). His last run at Newbury was also at that level and he should find life a bit easier now dropped back into Listed class. If this race was over 6f I’d really fancy Ainsdale and I’d imagine connections are using this as a prep for a repeat bid over 6f in the Champion Sprint Stakes (in the hope they get heavy ground).
Method, on the other hand, has 3L to find with Mitbaahy on their last run. If the ground softens sufficiently, I think the Meade horse can close the gap. Andrea Atzeni takes over in the plate and he is 1/2 for Meade. His style could really suit this horse and at odds of 20/1, Method is the e/w pick.
Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Method e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
2.06 Newmarket – October Auction Stakes (Class 2)
It’s fair to say that these sales races haven’t been very kind to us this season. Things don’t get much easier in this 28 runner sprint. At the weights, Union Court looks very well treated by the conditions of the race. Rated 91, she carries just 8st 6lbs and if she ran to that mark, she’d win. However, her last two runs have been well below that level, admittedly in Listed company and if the ground eases, it would be a complete unknown for her.
At odds of 33/1, maybe Indiana Be can go well for Ed Bethell and Jamie Spencer. This son of Sioux Nation remains a maiden after four starts. His best effort arguably came on debut at Thirsk (6f gd). He was only 0.75L behind King’s Crown in that maiden and he has since run well in the big sales race at York. I’m not sure he stayed 7f next time at Haydock and then he trailed home behind Marshman in another novice at Thirsk (6f gd).
Last time out he raced on easy ground for the first time on his handicap debut at Redcar (7f gd/sft). He raced a bit too free but he just failed to last home, going down by a nose to Hello Deira off a mark of 75. He had Prairie Falcon 1.5L behind in receipt of 1lb and today, he gets 6lbs from him yet he is more than double that horse’s price. At odds of 33/1, Indiana Be is the e/w pick.
Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Indiana Be e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
2.25 Ascot – Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)
Hamish put it right up to Kyprios last time at the Curragh and with a rating of 117, the 6yo is the class horse in the race. Easyish ground will be fine, the only slight worry is the drop back in trip. However, he should have enough class to justify his odds of 13/8.
High Definition is rated 117 too but he hasn’t run to that level since going down by a head to Alenquer at the Curragh back in May (10f gd). The man of the moment Wayne Lordan is over to ride but 4/1 looks too short given his last three runs. Euchen Glen should run his usual solid race but he is probably best at further these days.
I liked how Good Show got the job done on debut at Ayr and he is well bred. His dam was a very useful Listed winner for this owner/trainer combo and you don’t see a huge amount of first time winners from the Dalgleish stable.
This is a massive ask on just his second start but he shaped as though there was plenty more in the tank last time, despite the narrow winning margin. This is a speculative selection so keeps stakes small, but at 80/1, Good Show is the e/w pick.
Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Good Show e/w @ 80/1
2.42 Newmarket – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)
The big race at HQ on Saturday is this 8f G1 for the fillies. Saffron Beach has been put in as the 6/4 fav. Jane Chapple-Hyam’s 4yo didn’t lose much caste in defeat last time at Leopardstown and she has landed two G1s from her last five starts. Homeless Songs won the Irish Guineas in the manner of an extremely smart filly and perhaps she needed the run after a 4 month break at Leopardstown. However, Dermot Weld’s horses have been under a cloud all year and you couldn’t be overly confident in this daughter of Frankel at odds of 11/4.
Of those at bigger prices, perhaps Mrs Fitzherbert can sneak into the frame. Trained by Hughie Morrison, this 4yo daughter of Kingman has matured into a very nice filly. She failed to win at 2, she won a handicap off 79 as a 3yo but this season, she has progressed rapidly. On her first run back this season she landed a Listed contest at Goodwood, beating Bashkirova by 0.5L.
Blinding Run
Next time, she probably didn’t handle Epsom when 6L behind that same rival in a G3. Morrison gave her a ten week holiday after that effort and she returned with a blinding run in a Sandown G3. She finished 3rd, 3L behind Potapova and 1.5L behind Grande Dame. She is now 3lbs better off with that horse so on paper, she can turn that form around.
On her last start Mrs Fitzherbert broke her duck at G3 level at Chantilly (9f gd/sft). She had a 106 rated filly almost 3L back in 3rd so it was a solid win. The drop back to 8f won’t pose any issues and she proved in France she acts on an easier surface. David Egan looks a good booking, Morrison has his string in decent form and at odds of 40/1, hopefully Mrs Fitzherbert can pick up some more black type.
Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Mrs Fitzherbert e/w @ 40/1
3.00 Ascot – Bengough Stakes (Group 3)
With soft in the ground description, I’ll be taking a punt on Vadream here. This daughter of Brazen Beau loves to get her toe in and it is less than a year since she ran a huge race in the Champions Sprint over this C&D. It was proper soft that day and she finished a fine 5th of 20 at odds of 16/1. The bookies have put her in at the same odds today and she has to be worth backing e/w at those odds.
Just two starts ago Charlie Fellowes’ 4yo ran a massive race in a Listed heat at Newmarket. She found just Sam Maximus too good by a head and he has since run a lovely race in an Irish G3 at the Curragh. Vadream’s form figures at Ascot on good to soft or softer read 315 with the win coming in this race last season. Surely Fellowes’ will have her spot on for this repeat bid and with the recent rain hugely in her favour, Vadream looks a solid e/w bet at 16/1.
Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Vadream e/w @ 16/1 NAP (4 places)
3.21 Redcar – Two Year Old Trophy (Listed)
Barefoot Angel did us a big favour two weeks ago when winning at 25/1. That was a solid G3 and now she drops back down into Listed company. The assessor gave her a mark of 99 for that win but she won more cosily than the distance of a neck suggests. The 106 rated Lowther runner up Queen Me was a length behind in 3rd so I’d rate the performance as closer to 104 or maybe even 105. If she repeats that, I think she should win again.
However, she ain’t no 25/1 shot this time so we’ll have to try and find some e/w value elsewhere. It can be an advantage to be drawn low at Redcar. We backed Speriamo last time out at Doncaster but she ran an absolute stinker. Maybe she just needed the run after a break because she is a lot better than what she showed that day.
Philip McBride said it may possibly have been the ground, claiming it was riding far softer than the actual description. There was some rain at Redcar this afternoon but looking at the radar, it seems most of the heavy stuff missed the track. Speriamo has a nice draw in stall 4, she carries just 8st 3lbs and she is a stone better off with 25/1 shot Misty Blues compared to when they met at Pontefract. At odds of 66/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Speriamo e/w @ 66/1 (4 Places)
3.36 Ascot – Challenge Cup Handicap (Class 2)
I was very sweet on Sir Dancealot for the Ayr Gold Cup last time. Unfortunately, the test just proved a bit too sharp for him but he still was far from disgraced. Yes, he only finished 9th but he had far more horses behind him than in front of him and he was only 4.5L behind the winner Summerghand and 2.5L away from 5th. I thought he finished off very nicely and even though he didn’t place, I was happy with his run.
Now, he steps back up to 7f and that will surely suit. The handicapper dropped him 2lbs for Ayr so he is in off 103, the same mark off which he was beat 0.5L at Pontefract back in July. He admittedly wouldn’t want too much rain to get into the ground but good to soft would be fine. The son of Sir Prancealot has won on that type of ground and back in the day he was beat a nose off 109 on good to soft at Leicester.
Paul Mulrennan maintains the partnership aboard this old boy and John Butler has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight. Sir Dancealot is an 8yo now but his runs at Ponte and Ayr this term showed he retains a lot of ability and once the ground doesn’t turn too soft, Sir Dancealot is well capable of landing place money at least at odds of 40/1.
