Ascot and Haydock Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Ascot and Haydock Saturday Tips
It was a pretty tough day for us last Saturday. I wasn’t too impressed by the ride given to Wilderness Girl. Kimifive was extremely keen in the early stages and he had no chance after pulling so hard. Adaay To Remember ran a cracker to grab place money for us at 12/1. He still raced a bit awkwardly but there is no doubt he has a big engine. Wise Words ran an atrocious race and it looked like she may have had an issue. Duke Of Hazzard was another one who didn’t get the best of rides. He did finish strongly but the race had gone at that stage. Hopefully this weekend is more profitable, check out our Kempton, Ascot and Haydock Saturday tips below.
1.45 Haydock – Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3)
There is a big pot for this Group 3 but a dreadful turnout with just five runners. We backed Lord Glitters over 9f at York a fortnight ago and he ran a blinder. He was only 1.5L behind Real World in 2nd but with a clearer passage he could have won. The 8yo son of Whipper has never raced at Haydock before so the suitability of the track is an unknown. The drop back to a mile is not ideal either, though the stiff finish should make up for the shorter distance. On ratings he is well clear of most of these. His main rival on paper, My Oberon, is rated 1lb lower but he has to carry 3lbs more.
The Haggas horse has been inconsistent though this season. The first time blinkers will need to work if he is to get his head back in front. Maydanny has run well on his last three starts in handicap company, all at 8f. He has looked like a potential group horse a couple of times during his career and it will be interesting to see how he fares. He has form that ties in closely with Bell Rock. The Balding horse beat him 2.5L in a handicap at Newmarket in May. He was getting 2lbs from Maydanny so theoretically, there should be very little between them off level weights.
Pace Angle
Artistic Rifles completes the field and he is the main pace angle. Ed Bethell’s 5yo is a progressive sort and he steps into pattern company after winning 4 of his 6 starts for this yard. He has gone from 85 to 102 and you couldn’t blame connections for dipping their toes in Group company. His Hamilton win last time was impressive but he’ll need to improve again to win this. With just 2 places on offer, I am sitting this race out. Lord Glitters is the most likely winner but the trip worries me and the rest look priced up correctly. No Bet.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.05 Kempton – Sirenia Stakes (Group 3)
This 6f contest for the juveniles looks an interesting heat. The one I like dropping back a furlong in distance is Honey Sweet. This filly is rated 94 after a trio of respectable efforts in stakes company. She finished 3.75L behind System in a Listed heat at Newmarket (6f) and she was 5L behind Sandrine over the same C&D next time. On her last outing at Ascot over 7f she ran well behind New Science to nick 4th, 3L behind the winner and just 2L behind subsequent G2 winner Angel Bleu.
Her previous G2 5th at Newmarket has also worked out very well. The four horses that finished in front of Honey Sweet have all gone on to run excellent races in group company since. Flotus, who was half a length behind, bolted up in a Listed heat at Ripon earlier this week. I think this daughter of Adaay has more than enough ability to make the frame in a race of this nature, especially now returning to 6f. Most of her rivals have yet to show anywhere near the same level of form as Karl Burke’s filly. So, at odds of 10/1, she is the each way selection.
Kempton Saturday Tips: Honey Sweet e/w @ 10/1
2.20 Haydock – Betfair Handicap (Class 2)
David Barron did us a big favour with 40/1 winner Venturous a few weeks ago. While Contact won’t go off that big, I think he looks overpriced at odds of 12/1 now back on his favoured ground. This 3yo son of Guitafan didn’t set the world alight as a 2yo but he improved hugely during the off season and he looks like he could develop into a really smart stayer. He handles most types of ground but he is by far at his best on good or quicker. If you discount his two 2yo runs over 6f, he has form figures of 111 on good or quicker.
His wins include a mile maiden at Ayr, a 10f handicap at Redcar off 74 and a 12f handicap at Pontefract off 79. He is now back on quick ground for the first time since Pontefract. While he got hiked up 8lbs for that Ponte victory, he has since got 2lbs back for what were pretty decent efforts at Haydock (14f sft) and Ascot (12f gd/sft).
I thought he ran a blinder at Haydock in spite of the soft ground on his penultimate start. He just couldn’t pick up the leaders in the closing 2f but he kept on all the way to the line and I am hoping he is able to display his turn of foot on today’s quicker surface. Once this 3yo colt has his mind on the job I think a huge run could be on the cards at odds of 12/1.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday: Contact e/w @12/1 NAP
2.40 Kempton – September Stakes (Group 3)
Enable won this race for two of the past three seasons but there is nothing of her ilk in it this year. Only five have been declared and Hukum heads the market for Crowley and Burrows. This former course winner scored impressively in a 13.5f G3 at Newbury last time, his second win on the spin at that level. His last defeat came behind Wonderful Tonight in a soft ground G1 at Ascot and he holds obvious claims. The bookies haven’t missed him though and he makes no appeal at odds on.
Hamish is chalked up at 3/1 but the former handicapper was a bit disappointing on his G2 bow at Ascot last time out. He hasn’t been seen for over a year and a half and surely he will need this. Prince Of Arran has reportedly been showing plenty of his old enthusiasm and he loves it at Kempton. Charlie Fellowes’ stable star is on his way to Australia for a third crack at the Melbourne Cup and he has finished 3rd in the last two renewals of this race.
The son of Shirocco didn’t really show much on his seasonal return behind Stradivarius at Ascot. Connections were reportedly considering retirement but the spark has returned, according to Fellowes. Prince Of Arran has run well fresh before so the lack of a recent run isn’t a worry. He has career form figures of 11143333 at this track. 14/1 looks a fairly generous price given his record here and at those odds, he is worth backing each way, even with just two places available.
Kempton Saturday Tips: Prince Of Arran e/w @ 14/1
2.55 Haydock – Old Borough Cup (Class 2)
I am torn between two horses for this 14f race. We backed Island Brave on his last couple of runs and he has been knocking on the door over 16f. The booking of De Sousa catches the eye today but I just worry about this 14f trip for him. He is still 6lb higher in the weights than he was for his last win too so reluctantly, I am going to pass on him this time. Instead, I am going to back Sextant each way at odds of 25/1.
He is one of two Keith Dalgleish runners and he has been in my tracker since his solid run behind Amtiyaz at Royal Ascot. He only finished in 8th but the son of Sea The Stars was slowly away, pulled hard early and I thought he did well to get within 6L of the winner considering how the race went for him. Dalgleish freshened him up since then with a 79 day break and he reappeared here over 11.5f two days ago.
Slowly Away
Again, he wasn’t that quickly away from the gates but he settled a lot better and I really liked how he finished off his race. He just got a bit outpaced between the 3f and 1f poles but he was making up a lot of ground in the closing stages and he finished just 2.75L behind the winner and 1.25L behind the runner up. On that evidence he is going to relish stepping back up to 14f and he is just 3lbs higher than he was for his last handicap win at Ascot (12f gd/fm). His stablemate Alright Sunshine can’t be discounted either but Callum Rodriguez has a decent strike rate for these owners (6/24) and at odds of 25/1, Sextant is the each way pick.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday: Sextant e/w @ 25/1 (4 Places)
3.10 Ascot – Lavazza Stakes (Class 2)
The first live race of the day from Ascot is this 12f Heritage Handicap for 3yos only. Auriferous is a horse that has form that ties in closely with our NAP Contact. He gets in off a feather weight of 8st 2lbs and William Cox takes off another 3lbs. That means he is now racing off effectively 2lbs lower than he was for his only handicap outing so far at Haydock (14f sft). It was a cracking run too as he managed to nick 3rd, just 2L behind the winner Tashkan.
Andrew Balding dropped him back into Novice company next time at Newmarket and he ran a shocker. Last time out was much better in a maiden at Newbury (12f gd). He chased home Derby runner up Mojo Star and while he was no match for that 114 rated horse, he was beaten only 4L. The winner did ease down late on and could have won by further but Auriferous kept on well and the step back up to 14f is firmly in his favour, as is the return to handicap company. At odds of 12/1, he is the each way selection in an open looking race.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday: Auriferous e/w @12/1 (4 Places)
3.30 Haydock – Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1)
Starman is the hot favourite for this G1 sprint and he is hard to oppose back on quick ground. He lost no caste in defeat last time out in France on soft and he has won his last two on better ground. I am not sure why connections earmarked that race in France because they were never likely to get his favoured conditions. They went down the same route with Primo Bacio and I couldn’t understand that move either. However, given how comfortably he beat Dragon Symbol in the July Cup on his last start on good to firm, it is hard to look past the son of Dutch Art.
One that could go well at a price now her confidence is restored is Happy Romance. We have backed her on her last two outings. She ran a huge race over 5f at Sandown on the first occasion in a Listed heat, placing at 12/1 (advised at 40s). She then made no mistake upped to 6f at Newmarket, winning for us at 11/1. This is a tougher race but this 3yo filly is on the up and she had a bit more in hand than the winning distance suggests last time. She gets sex and age allowances and Nando Parrado and Glen Shiel should ensure she gets the fast early pace she needs. She should be staying on late when others have cried enough and at 20/1 an each way interest is advised.
Ascot and Haydock Saturday Tips: Happy Romance e/w @ 20/1 NB
3.45 Ascot – Careys Foundation Handicap (Class 2)
I am giving one final chance to Orbaan in this valuable 7f handicap. Trained by David O’Meara, this 6yo has often flattered to deceive this season. He often travels strongly without finding much and it makes sense dropping him back in trip. Since moving from France to O’Meara in 2020 this horse has had 12 runs in total, all over 8f. His last outing over 7f came on his penultimate run in France when he ran a huge race behind Tour De Paris at Longchamp. That horse has since won a Group 2 and Orbaan then went on to score at 25/1 off 100 at York on his second run for his new connections.
That remains his last and only UK win but he has shaped well more than once, including last time out at York. Yes, he finished 12th but he was only 4.5L behind the winner and it was very generous of the handicapper to drop him 3lbs for that effort. He has Ascot form in the book, finishing 4th under Spencer over 8f exactly a year ago. That came off a mark of 103 and he is now in off 97. He is well handicapped, this trip should suit and at odds of 14/1, Orbaan is worth backing each way.
