Ayr And Sandown Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Ayr and Sandown Saturday Tips For ITV4 Races
We got off to a flier on New Year’s Day with Navajo Pass. He made a mockery of his handicap mark and won easily. The rest of the day was a struggle, unfortunately. The ground turned too soft for Caius Marcius and Djingle stopped like he was shot a mile from home. Fanzio fell early, ensuring a long drive home for the Hobsons. The Tolworth is the big race on Saturday and you can see Dave Stevos’ Ayr and Sandown Saturday tips below…
1.50 Sandown: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The minimum trip of 15.5f awaits 8 chasers in this class 2 handicap. The ground is not as testing on the chase course at Sandown as it is on the hurdles course but even so, an ability to handle soft ground will be required. The obvious starting points are Darebin and Early Du Lemo for Gary Moore. Those two fought out a close finish over C&D in early December and the runner up, Early Du Lemo, is 3lb better off for a neck defeat. However, he took a heavy fall on his next start and it remains to be seen how that will affect his confidence. Darebin isn’t guaranteed to back his last run up and both are overlooked today.
Quite a few of these would prefer nicer ground but one that will be fine is Born Survivor. This horse hasn’t produced his best for quite a while. However, his yard is in sparkling form and he is back down to his last winning mark. His last couple of triumphs have come over further than this but he did win over 15f as a 7yo on soft. He is best when ridden aggressively and hold up tactics have not worked so far this season. If connections decide to go forward today and he jumps as he is capable of, he could make a bold bid. At the prices, he is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
Ayr and Sandown Saturday: Born Survivor e/w @ 20/1
2.05 Ayr: Handicap Chase (Class 3)
The ground is heavy at Ayr and only 6 will go to post in this 20.5f handicap chase. The one I like here is the outsider of the field, Charmant. Trained by Scottish handler James Ewart, this fella has yet to hit top form this season. However, the ground was too quick for him the last twice and he found Listed company far too hot. This represents a big drop in grade for this son of Balko and he will appreciate the return to softer ground. His last start in a class 3 handicap, off a mark of 136, resulted in a 23L win at Wetherby (19.5f sft).
He races off the same rating of 136 today so he is handicapped to be competitive at least. His trainer does well at Ayr and this horse likes it there too. He has had 4 starts at Ayr, all over 2 miles and he won two of them. Charmant beat Forest Des Aigles by almost 3L in March of last year off 133 on soft and he also won a handicap hurdle on heavy. He took a couple of runs to find form last term and hopefully it is the same story this time around. Brian Hughes is riding well and he is 4/9 aboard this fella. At odds of 11/1 he is worth backing e/w.
Ayr Saturday Tip: Charmant e/w @ 11/1
2.25 Sandown: Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The big race of the day at Sandown is the Tolworth Hurdle. Seven novices will battle it out for Grade 1 glory and Metier is well fancied to make it 3/3 over timber. This son of Mastercraftsman handles heavy ground well and he was a very useful type on the flat (rated 90). The form of his two hurdle wins doesn’t look great but he could do no more than beat what was in front of him. This will represent his toughest task to date though and he needs to prove that he belongs at this sort of level.
He could easily prove up to the task but at the odds I am going to take him on. The one I like at a decent enough price is Shakem Up’Arry. Owned by Harry Redknapp, Ben Pauling trains this 130 rated son of Flemensfirth. His best form has come at today’s trip of 2 miles. He won a novice at Ffos Las on his last start at 16f (sft) and he chased home the top class Shishkin on his previous start at the distance on heavy at Newbury. 19f stretched his stamina last time at Haydock and this drop back in trip looks sure to suit. With 3 places on offer from Paddy Power, Shakem Up’Arry is the e/w pick at 9/1.
Ayr and Sandown Saturday: Shakem Up’Arry e/w @ 9/1 NB (3 Places)
Ayr and Sandown Saturday – 2.40 Ayr: Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The 3 mile trip for this handicap hurdle will take some getting on the ground. Stamina will be at a premium and one horse that won’t be found wanting in that department is Donna’s Diamond. Trained by Chris Grant, this 11yo son of Cloudings was a seriously talented hurdler in his pomp. He beat Agrapart in a Grade 2 at Haydock (23f hvy) two years ago. Two of his last three wins have come on that type of ground and he has won over as far as 26f on good to soft.
His only previous run at Ayr came in a bumper but there is no reason why he shouldn’t take to the track. He enjoys going left handed and he is weighted to be competitive off a mark of 142. If he could repeat the form of his 2nd to Emitom in Feb 20 he should be bang there at the business end. He will strip fitter after his comeback at Carlisle and Sean Quinlan, on board for his last win, comes back in for the ride. 12/1 looks a more than fair price and at those odds Donna’s Diamond is worth backing each way.
Ayr and Sandown Saturday: Donna’s Diamond e/w @ 12/1
3.00 Sandown: Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Long time followers of our tips might remember me putting up Regal Flow for this race last season. Bob Buckler’s charge ran a huge race for us that day, missing out by a short head off 127. He is back for a repeat bid and the handicapper has given him a right chance. Regal Flow is in off 124 today and he shaped very pleasingly on his last start at this track (29f sft). That was surely a prep run for this contest and he should be in tip-top shape.
Sean Houlihan is a talented claimer and he takes off 3lb. That means Regal Flow will carry just 9st 11lbs here, a feather weight. Conditions look absolutely fine for him and he is 11lb lower than when winning the Midlands National back in 2018. This race has almost certainly been the plan since his great effort last year and at odds of 14/1 Regal Flow is the each way NAP of the day.
sandown Saturday Tips: Regal Flow e/w @ 14/1 NAP (6 Places W Hill)
3.15 Ayr: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Another 3 mile slog, this time over the bigger fences. Only 5 will go to post and the bookies are taking zero chances. Strong Economy loves it here but he looks handicapped to the hilt off 120. Late Remark (if he runs) is also in off a career high mark and Takingrisks is another former course winner who could possibly do with coming down the weights.
Manetti will like the ground but he too is well above his last winning mark while Sutton Manor has gone backwards since arriving at Lucinda Russell’s from Ireland. One of them will have to win but at the odds, none of them appeal. Not a race that I’ll be getting involved in. No bet.
Ayr and Sandown Saturday: No Bet
3.35 Sandown: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
We backed Totterdown last time out when he ran a stinker over C&D on heavy. However, he usually runs well at this track, especially on testing ground, and he is worth chancing again at big odds. He has worn a hood for all his best efforts but connections left the headgear off last time. Fergal O’Brien is trying cheekpieces on him and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in them. Totterdown’s last two victories came on heavy ground over 2 miles at Sandown, the last one by 10L off 130 in November last year.
The son of Pasternak also ran a solid race to be 3rd in this race last season on heavy off 142 and he is in off 135 today. With his jockey’s 7lb claim he is effectively 14lb lower for his repeat bid and bar his last run at Sandown, his career form figures on heavy over 16f there are 131. Liam Harrison is 9/50 for this yard with another 17 top 4 finishes and at odds of 16/1 Totterdown is the each way selection.
