Bahrain GP Race Day Update

James Punt has already advised a number of pre-race bets in his main race preview. He has also prepared a Bahrain GP Race Day update and he recommending another couple of interesting wagers. Check them out below…

Bahrain GP Race Day Preview

It was a fairly comfortable pole position for Max Verstappen in the end, 0.388 faster than Hamilton in second place. That is back-to-back pole positions for Verstappen/Red Bull and the first time in the turbo hybrid era that a Mercedes hasn’t been on pole for the opening race of the season.

The record for the pole sitter here in the turbo hybrid era is not great, only three wins from four, with two coming from second place, and two from third. This will be Verstappen’s fourth pole position start and he has won two and was second in the other. His track record here has seen three DNF’s, a sixth, a fourth and second place last year.

It wasn’t all good news for Red Bull as new signing, Sergio Perez, failed to reach Q3 and he will start from eleventh place, so at least he has a free choice of which tyre compound to start on. We haven’t heard much about tyre degradation so far, maybe the shorter free practice sessions have limited the teams long runs. However, the surface here is abrasive and looking after the rear tyres will be important, and nobody does that better than Perez.

It does mean that Verstappen will be flying solo for Red Bull, which wasn’t part of the plan.

Bottas Starts On Second Row

Bottas will start in third place and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the ill handling Mercedes. The weather forecast for today is for cooler conditions but more importantly, for very windy conditions at around 50 km/h, gusting to 60 km/h. That will make it difficult for everybody but in a car with a bit of a weak rear end and some understeer, Bottas may find it particularly difficult. He was struggling to keep the car on the track for much of free practice, and that was in much more benign conditions.

The Ferrari of Charles Leclerc qualified in fourth place, arguably not a great surprise but at the top end of expectations. He was just 0.1 slower than Bottas in third pace and with Bottas not exactly enjoying things this weekend, that third place on the podium does look up for grabs at the very least. Ferrari have had a car on the podium in five of the last seven races here. Leclerc is not making many optimistic noises about his chances, saying that it will be hard to keep the Alpha Tauri of Gasly behind him.

Gasly was just 0.13 slower than the Ferrari and it does seem like the high rake design of the Alpha Tauri might just be that bit more stable in the windy conditions. The other Alpha Tauri of Yuki Tsunoda failed to get out of Q2 after a very scruffy lap. He is very quick but must be considered a rough diamond. He needs polishing up. Tsunoda starts in thirteenth place and in a fast car and full of the exuberance of youth, we should expect some entertainment from him.

Leclerc Under Pressure

Leclerc is right to worry about the Alpha Tauri as they, like Red Bull, Mercedes, used the medium tyre in Q2 while Ferrari used the soft. That means Leclerc will start on the quicker tyre, which may allow for a good start, but he will have to run a shorter first stint and is on the weaker strategy, unless of course, we get a fortuitously timed safety car. The long run pace of the Alpha Tauri and Ferrari is said to be very close, the Alpha’s about 0.1 faster.

Ricciardo out qualified teammate Norris by an irritating 0.05 seconds and the two McLarens line up sixth and seventh. I was hoping for more from Norris but he hasn’t been happy with the car on the long runs and they were said to be 1.12 off the Red Bull pace and behind Mercedes, Alpha Tauri and Ferrari.

Carlos Sainz ended up in eighth place but was lucky to get out of Q1 after his car stopped on track when his power unit cut out. He managed to get it going again and made it into Q3 but there have been a few little niggles with this new power unit, so reliability is a concern.

Bahrain GP Race Day: Alonso Worked Wonders In The Alpine

Fernando Alonso did a great job to wrestle the underwhelming Alpine into ninth place but keeping it there will be a challenge. Lance Stroll has to be given some credit to get the less than impressive Aston Martin into tenth place. It shares many of the same problems as the Mercedes and he is going to be under pressure from Perez and Tsunoda who are in faster cars behind him, and with free choice of tyres.

Of the drivers that failed to reach Q3, only Perez and Tsunoda look out of place on the grid. The two Alfa Romeo’s start twelfth and fourteenth, hanging on to the coat tails of the midfield proper. They are likely to need a bit of attrition ahead of them if they are to get any points. They have a very reliable car and while it is not super quick, it does seem reasonably competitive.

Sebastian Vettel was a bit unlucky with a yellow flag on his last Q1 run but he has been off the pace of Stroll all weekend and his lack of time in the car in testing is hurting him. Vettel looks a bit mopey already, his car looks to be a handful and reliability has to be a concern after such a poor test.

Bahrain GP Race Day Tip: 1 point Giovinazzi to beat Sebastian Vettel @ 1.90 with Unibet

Williams got Russell into Q2 but the reality is that they remain in the slowest two teams, with the hapless Haas at absolute rock bottom.

The race is there for the taking for Verstappen. He needs a good clean start to make sure he has Hamilton behind him and running in his dirty air. If he does that and the car stays healthy, job done. The Red Bull is quicker, is handling better, is likely to be better in the windy conditions and is around 0.2 faster on the long run pace. We have already backed him ante post so there is no need to be topping up at odds of 1.60.

Mercedes should be good enough to get Hamilton on the podium, but I remain unconvinced by Bottas. He is usually better than Hamilton in the opening race of the season, and he has often led the championship after a few races, before Hamilton inevitably dominates him. This season, Bottas is not in the best car, his chances of beating Hamilton are as remote as ever, and now he is going to find at least one Red Bull ahead of him and those pesky Alpha Tauri’s are capable of pissing on his parade.

The Finn always starts the year full of optimism, that this is the year. It usually takes four or five races before his spirit is broken. This year, he looks broken already. If Gasly gets ahead of Bottas on lap one then Bottas could struggle, especially in weather conditions which are not good for the sensitive Mercedes. Gasly likes the circuit and he is buzzing. He has a car that he knows could get him podiums this season and this is a good opportunity.

Bahrain GP Race Day Tip: 1 point Bottas NOT to finish on the podium @ 2.10 with Unibet

Perez starting eleventh with a free tyre choice can’t be ruled out of a podium, but he still isn’t fully comfortable with the car yet and there is some value in Gasly’s odds to get a podium finish. We have backed him at 2.50 for a top six finish already, and I don’t want to burden him with a second bet.

Tsunoda can be backed at 5.00 to have a top 6 finish. That is tempting given the cars pace, but clearly, while he looks to be a good talent, he is going to make mistakes and he carries a higher level of risk than the more experienced drivers.

There’s not much to add today. No group betting from Ladbrokes/Coral, maybe that will return for the next race after there is a better picture of the relative form of the teams.

The next race is in three weeks’ time.

-JamesPunt