Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid Preview and Betting Tip

The North London Derby worked out exactly how I hoped. Arsenal conceded first but they dominated the game overall and even if the penalty they were awarded was questionable, they were full value for the 2-1 win. Next up we are back in action on Wednesday night for Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.

The first leg between these two teams finished 1-0 to The Blues. Thomas Tuchel’s men rode their luck at times but overall it was a pretty comfortable victory. Atletico Madrid, even with Luis Suarez up top, looked toothless and that was the case again at the weekend when they fired blanks in La Liga. Can Atleti get back on the goal scoring trail vs Chelsea? Or will Tuchel’s Blues get the clean sheet they need to advance to the quarter finals? I think it could be the latter, check out my preview and betting tip below…

Case For The Defence

When Thomas Tuchel took over as Chelsea boss there was one big question. How would this tactical genius cope with the rigours of the Premier League? Well, to be fair to him he has adapted pretty well but there has been nothing revolutionary about his approach. Most managers realise that the foundations of a top team are always built on a strong defence and he has prioritised that area since arriving at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea have kept 10 clean sheets in his 12 games in charge so far, conceding just 2 goals. They have remained unbeaten during that run (W8 D4), including their 1-0 first leg ‘away’ win vs Atletico in Romania. Since that victory they have drawn 0-0 against Man Utd and Leeds and they secured wins against Liverpool (1-0) and Everton (2-0).

I think it is pretty obvious that Tuchel won’t change his safety first approach in this match. If Chelsea keep a clean sheet they qualify and as recent results show, that is second nature to them. They will be without Thiago Silva tonight (Mount and Jorginho suspended too) but I have been really impressed by Rudiger at the back. Kante and Kovacic will provide a defensive shield in midfield and I think they will be very hard to break down.

Atletico Need Goals

I expected Atletico to get the job done against Chelsea in the first leg of this tie, but I was wrong. Yes, they had one or two dangerous moments when they could have scored but overall it was a very disappointing display. Their form has faltered somewhat in recent weeks and maybe the pressure of being top of La Liga is getting to them. They have won just 3 of their last 9 matches and they slipped up again when drawing 0-0 vs Getafe at the weekend.

Diego Simeone’s side is not known for producing scintillating attacking football. Similarly to Chelsea they look to keep things tight at the back and hit teams with a sucker punch. However, that approach won’t work tonight. Atletico have to score and they won’t be able to sit back and hope to hit Chelsea on the counter.

One thing in Simeone’s favour is that he has a fully fit squad to choose from. He will need big performances from the likes of Saul and Koke in midfield and Atletico will be relying on the likes of Joao Felix, Carrasco and Correa to provide the ammunition for Luis Suarez up top. However, they didn’t make much of an impact offensively vs Chelsea first time around and I am not sure it will be any different this evening.

Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid Recent Form Guide

As can be seen in the table above, both teams are in similar sort of form in the last couple of weeks. Atletico have drawn two and won two since losing to Chelsea while The Blues have won three and drawn one. The main difference is that Chelsea have not conceded a goal for over 500 minutes and that defensive solidity could make all the difference on Wednesday night.  

Low Scoring Affair

To be honest, I can’t see there being too much goal mouth action in this match. Chelsea have been rock solid at the back and they showed in the first leg that they are capable of keeping Atletico at bay. They have the pace up front to worry Atletico on the counter and they are more than capable of punishing Diego Simeone’s men if they go gung-ho from the outset.

I think if Chelsea can hold out for the first half an hour and not concede a goal they will make life very difficult for Atletico. Thomas Tuchel knows his team holds all the aces thanks to the away goal they scored in the first leg and he will be looking for another defensive masterclass from his side.

This could be one for the purists and if you are looking for goals and excitement, you’d be better off watching Bayern Munich vs Lazio. I can see Chelsea keeping yet another clean sheet and the recommended bet is for there to be no goalscorer at odds of 7/1 with Betfair.

Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid Tips: No Goalscorer @ 7/1 Betfair

Key Quotes – Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid

Thomas Tuchel – on resting Mateo Kovacic vs Leeds: “ Normally I don’t like to do this but in central midfield we miss Jorgi and Mason on Wednesday so we took the decision to give Kova a rest and don’t take the risk, because normally this is his game to start also. But we have two suspensions so we went for this decision.”

Marcos Llorente – “”The team is excited, mentally, conscious of the game we come into. It’s crucial, we are working well and we will go out to have a good game. From inside we trust in ourselves. We have had big games this season. We have very clear ideas and we are very excited.”

Dave Stevos