Chepstow and Newmarket Friday Preview and Tips – DS
Chepstow and Newmarket Friday Tips
Well, it is fair to say that our Arc picks were a disaster. Neither horse figured but you couldn’t begrudge Alpinista, Luke Morris and Mark Prescott. It was great to see some good guys come out on top for a change. We did at least manage to nick place money with Start Me Up (28s NAP) and Moss Tucker at 40s. Ken Condon’s sprinter started slowly and that cost him the race. He’s still progressing and he looks a G1 winner in waiting. The jumps are back tomorrow and we also have G1 action from HQ. Check out Dave Stevos York, Chepstow and Newmarket Friday preview below.
1.35 Chepstow – Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)
These veterans’ races are great, but unfortunately only seven run. The Mighty Don is one of the most frustrating horses in training. He has the engine, he just very rarely puts it all together. There is no doubt he is capable of hacking up in this off 132 but at odds of 3/1 he isn’t worth the risk on his first run of the season.
The only possible angle I can see is that Al Roc has a fitness edge and he isn’t on a bad mark. However, this trip around a track like Chepstow might just prove too much of a stamina test for him. I will probably regret not putting him up but with seven runners and just two places on offer, I’ll swerve this race. No bet.
Chepstow and Newmarket Friday Tips: No Bet
1.50 Newmarket – Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)
Prince Of Pillo is a warm order for this G3 sprint. Keith Dalgleish’s charge made it three wins from four at Ayr in the Listed Harry Rosebery and the runner up, Bolt Action, came out and won a decent conditions race at Salisbury next time out. His only defeat to date came on soft ground when 4th behind Trillium at Doncaster. The son of Prince Of Lir is clearly a top of the ground horse and conditions look ideal for him today.
Crispy Cat finished 1.25L ahead of Prince Of Pillo at Doncaster. His overall form is probably stronger but at this stage, he is looking rather exposed. Softer ground might prove to be his optimum conditions so at 9/2 he doesn’t appeal. At bigger odds, maybe Rumstar can continue the excellent form of the Jonny Portman stable.
Hosed Up At Bath
This son of Havana Grey is 2/6 so far. Beat a head on debut at Windsor over 5f, he made no mistake next time when absolutely hosing up at Bath. He wasn’t disgraced on easier ground when 3rd in a Listed contest at Sandown and he ran another nice race over the same C&D next time. At Goodwood he dropped into handicap company and made a mockery of his mark of 90, winning more easily than the margin of victory suggests.
Last time at Kempton he stepped up into G3 company and ran a very nice race over 6f. He was trapped wide throughout but he finished a good 4th, 4L behind Middle Park 4th Mischief Magic and only 2L behind subsequent Ayr G3 runner up Believing. Malrescia was 1.25L ahead in 3rd and he was beat a neck in a Dundalk Listed heat next time. Prince Of Pillo is the one to beat but at 16/1, Rumstar can hopefully give him something to think about.
Chepstow and Newmarket Friday Tips: Rumstar e/w @ 16/1
2.10 Chepstow – Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
The first Graded hurdle race of note of the season and eight will go to post. Hopefully the forecast drop of rain arrives, otherwise we could have a reduced field. Plenty of these have lots of 1s beside their names but a fair few of those wins came during the summer. We all know how weak some of those races were and weighing up the strength of a lot of the recent form is not easy.
Quid Pro Quo is the market leader for Dan and Harry Skelton. He is 2/2 over timber, winning a maiden and a novice by a combined distance of 21L. He beat a 115 horse last time at Newton Abbott by 7L when conceding 7lbs and if he is fit and ready to go, he should be going close in this field.
Solid Form
The two biggest threats on paper look to be Presentandcounting and Deeper Blue. They both come here on the back of wide margin handicap wins off 125 and 124 respectively. The former horse, trained by Donald McCain, has been running throughout the summer so he should have a fitness edge over his main market rivals. If I was backing one at the top of the betting, Presentandcounting would get the nod.
Of those at bigger odds, Accidental Rebel could go well. Trained by in form Fergal O’Brien, Paddy Brennan takes the ride. He was beat a neck off 119 in a handicap last time ending a run of three consecutive wins.
O’Brien has given him a nice 51 day break since that run and the cheekpieces are applied. He has hung left on his last two runs so hopefully, the new equipment helps in that department. The son of Kayf Tara will like the nice ground, his yard has had three winners in the past week and if one or more of the market principals need the run, he could sneak a place at odds of 14/1.
Chepstow and Newmarket Friday Tips: Accidental Rebel e/w @ 14/1
2.25 Newmarket – Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3)
An open looking renewal and at odds of 14/1, Tagline represents a bit of e/w value here. Trained by Rod Millman, Ross Coakley takes the ride on this daughter of Havana Grey. She has yet to win a stakes race but she has already picked up two bits of black type this season over 6f and although she bombed out on her last try at 7f, I think it is well worth another crack.
It wasn’t a lack of stamina that beat her when she tried 7f at Sandown. She was too keen and Jamie Spencer basically said she was unrideable she hung that badly to the right. Maybe that run came too soon after her good effort behind Mawj at Newmarket but in any case, she proved it was merely a blip in the G3 Dick Poole at Salisbury last time out.
In that contest (6f gd/fm) she settled better and despite hanging to the right again, she finished very well to be beat a length for the win in 3rd. The winner ran respectably in the Cheveley Park next time out and the way Tagline raced, it looked like stepping back up to 7f was well worth another try. She also got to within 1.75L of Lezoo at Newmarket earlier this term with Believing 0.75L behind. She is almost half the price of Tagline and at the odds, the Millman filly is worth backing e/w.
Chepstow and Newmarket Friday Tips: Tagline e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NAP
2.40 York – Autumn Mile Handicap (Class 2)
At the prices, Broken Spear looks too big off a mark of 82. This horse has loads of ability and he should have won more races than he has. He has won four races during his career, including a 5f race here as a 2yo. His last win came at Doncaster off 83 in November 2021 and he shaped as though his turn was near when beat 2L into 5th at Thirsk last time out.
He was hampered and had to switch at a very inopportune time in that contest and with a clear run, he’d have finished a lot closer. He’s had a near two month break since that run, similar to the break he had before winning at Chester in May last year. He has yet to win over a mile but his effort over this C&D in July of last year when beat just over 4L off 86 (and his run at Donny in March) prove that he can be competitive over this distance. There is a drop of rain forecast, which will suit, and at odds of 33/1, hopefully Broken Spear can finish fast and late for place money.
York Friday Tips: Broken Spear e/w @ 33/1 (6 Places)
3.00 Newmarket – Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
Eight are due to line up in the stalls for this G2 over 7f. If he can run to the same level as he did when pushing Double Or Bubble all the way at Goodwood on his penultimate start, surely Misty Grey is capable of making his presence felt in this race. Tom Dascombe’s son of Dark Angel’s price of 25/1 must be based on his below par run at Doncaster last time. He trailed in 5L behind Kinross in that G2 but the ground was too soft for him.
This gelding is a much better horse on turf on better ground, as his form this season shows. Ok, he flopped in the Great St Wilfrid on rattling fast ground but at Goodwood in that G3 and at Chester in July at Listed level (7f gd) he ran two absolute stormers. Incidentally, in that Chester heat he was conceding 10lbs to Oscula who was 0.75L behind in 3rd. Today, he only gives her 5lbs yet the Boughey horse is 11/1 and Misty Grey is 25s.
Chepstow and Newmarket Friday Tips: Misty Grey e/w @ 25/1 NB
3.15 York – EBF 2yo Series Final (Class 2)
Another one of these bloody 2yo sales races. We have had a mare in them so far this season, hopefully Hougoumont can end our barren run. Trained by Julie Camacho, this horse is 2/3 and he was only a head away from making a flawless start. On his second start at Newcastle he just about got off the mark, scoring by a head despite showing clear signs of greenness.
Connections stuck a hood on for his next start in another 6f Novice at Pontefract. This time he was slow away and he was a bit outpaced coming round the bend. However, he finished with a wet sail and won narrowly. On the evidence of that run, 7f around here should really suit and the hood seemed to help him to focus more on the job at hand.
Admittedly, an official rating of 81 does leave him with a lot to find but he is unexposed and he surely has the scope to be better than that. I’d guess that he probably improved 7/8 lbs from his 2nd to his 3rd run and if he can find a similar chunk of improvement again today, he could nick a decent bit of prize money. At odds of 16/1, Hougoumont is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
York Friday Tips: Hougoumont e/w @ 18/1 (4 places B365)
3.35 Newmarket – Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)
Commissioning has made a big impression on her first two starts. By Kingman, John Gosden’s filly is 2/2 and she landed a G2 over 7f here last time. It usually takes a pretty special horse to take such a massive step up in grade in their stride and she beat Electric Eyes with consummate ease. It is no surprise that this extremely well bred filly is odds on and she’ll surely get further next year given her dam’s pedigree. An exciting prospect.
At big odds, maybe Alseyoob can go well for Ismail Mohammed and Tom Marquand. This filly won on debut, making all to beat Luckin Brew over 7f on the July Course. Unlike the fav, she found the immediate step up to Group company too much to handle on her second start and she faded into 7th having tried to make all again.
Under slightly more patient tactics at Ascot over 8f last time she got well and truly back on track in Novice company. She hit the front 2f out this time and by the furlong marker, the race was put to bed. She beat a Ballydoyle Guineas entry into 2nd so it could turn out to be decent form. The fav is clearly going to be hard to beat here. However, this Lope De Vega filly learned plenty from her first try in Group company despite finishing well beaten and with that experience under her belt, hopefully she can finish strongly here to pick up some precious black type at 25/1.
Chepstow and Newmarket Friday Tips: Alseyoob e/w @ 25/1
3.50 York – William Hill Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
A very competitive looking 14f handicap and the one I like e/w is Flamborough. Trained by the Johnstons, this son of Farrh remains a maiden after six starts. However, he has plenty of ability and on the evidence of his last two runs, he is capable of winning races. His best effort as a 2yo came on his 3rd start at Wolves where he got to within 2.75L of Emily Upjohn.
He started out this season off a mark of 78 and he flopped on his return over 12f on soft at Thirsk. However, nine days later he reappeared over 12f at Kempton off 76 and he ran a cracker in 2nd behind Sea Stone. Last time out at Haydock he tried this trip for the first time and although he finished only 5th, he was less than a length behind the winner.
When you consider that he didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs and had to switch wide, it was an even better effort than it looked and he is only 1lb higher here. This is clearly a much tougher assignment but this horse is improving with racing and he has a lovely racing weight of 8st 4lbs. If he can repeat that Haydock effort and gets a clearer run, Flamborough can hopefully go close at odds of 16/1.
york Friday Tips: Flamborough e/w @ 16/1 (5 places)
4.10 Newmarket – Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Class 2)
I’m going to take a punt on one at massive odds in this 14f handicap. Berkshire Rebel started this season out off 98 and his first three runs were pretty much non-events. He trailed in last of 3 on his return at Newbury (10f gd), although to be fair to the son of Sir Percy, the run was likely needed. Next time he finished last of four at Chester in a G3 and this time, soft ground was an excuse. A poor effort at Royal Ascot on handicap debut off 98 followed and after that, Balding put him away for three months and gelded him.
On his return to action last time at Newbury, he finally showed some promise. In off 92, Probert took a pull at the start and dropped him out in rear. It looked like he was keen to keep him out the back and when the pace lifted, he got tapped for toe. However, he stuck to the task well and even though he only finished 8th he finished well and ran through the line pretty strongly.
That race was over 12f and on that evidence, this extra two furlongs could really suit. As an added bonus, the handicapper dropped him 4lbs for that 4.25L defeat. I think that was a pretty generous assessment of his run considering it was his first outing for 3 months and also that he had been gelded. I’d expect a fair bit of improvement now with that run under his belt and at odds of 33/1, Berkshire Rebel is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
