Clonmel and Taunton Thursday Tips by Dave Stevos
Clonmel and Taunton Thursday Tips: All Live ITV Races
Unfortunately it rained on Saturday night in Navan before the Troytown. I was hoping for yielding at the worst for Mr Diablo but it came up soft/heavy. That was never likely to suit him and he ran a stinker. These are strange times we are living in and it doesn’t get much stranger than Clonmel and Taunton being featured on ITV Racing! There was plenty of rain around in Ireland yesterday and the Tipperary track had to pass an inspection. You can check out Dave Stevos’ Clonmel and Taunton Thursday tips for all live ITV4 races below…
Clonmel Thursday Tips: 1.50pm – Handicap Hurdle (4yo+)
The ground is bottomless at Clonmel and that won’t suit all the horses in this 3 mile handicap hurdle. One that won’t have any issues in the conditions is Benkei for Harry Rogers and Rachael Blackmore. This 10yo son of Galileo last won in 2018 at Killarney (22f gd) off 125. He is in off 2lb lower today with a mark of 123 and he shaped very nicely last time at Down Royal over an inadequate trip. He finished really well for 6th over 16f at monster odds. This step back up in distance is really going to suit him.
His last start on heavy ground came at Roscommon back in September 2017 over 20f. He absolutely hosed up that day by 8L and he has also won on soft/heavy on the flat over 12f. Clearly, this horse must have had issues in the past given he was off for nearly 2 years between 2018 and this term. However, that run at Down Royal was really encouraging. It showed he still retained at least some of his old ability. He has placed form in much stronger races than this in the book and at odds of 12/1, Benkei is the e/w pick.
Clonmel and Taunton Thursday Tips: Benkei e/w @ 12/1
Taunton: 2.05pm – Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Conditions are very different across the pond at Taunton. The ground is good and a field of 6 will go to post in this class 3 handicap hurdle. Tomorrow Mystery is the odds on favourite and to be honest, she is extremely hard to oppose. Racing off a mark of 124, the same rating off which she won last week by 6.5L, this daughter of Nathaniel will probably win this before having her sights raised and going up in class. She has won her last three over timber and she can complete the 4 timer. Robinshill could give her most to do but with just 6 runners I will be just watching this race. No bet.
Clonmel and Taunton Thursday Tips: No Bet
Clonmel 2.25pm – TA Morris Mares’ Chase (Listed)
The heavy rain has scared off some of the potential runners and we only have 4 going to post for this Listed chase. It is a win only affair now for punters and I’ll be taking a chance on Western Victory. Trained by a shrewd handler in Declan Queally, this lovely 7yo daughter of Westerner was a facile winner in a chase here last time (18f sft). She hosed up by 16L with Make My Heart Fly chasing her home. That should have been her 2nd win on the bounce after she fell at the last when leading the field at Listowel (20f sft).
A rating of 137 leaves her with a fair bit to find with Shattered Love (150) and Cabaret Queen (149). However, she arrives in great nick and while Shattered Love won this easily last year, she has been beaten by a total of 45L on her last two starts. Cabaret Queen is arguably better over further and she had a tough race in the Kerry National last time when winning by a nose. She would probably appreciate nicer ground too. At the prices Western Victory looks worth a punt and at 5/1 she is the selection.
Clonmel and Taunton Thursday Tips: Western Victory @ 5/1 NB
Taunton: 2.40pm – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Another frustratingly small field for this class 3 handicap chase with just 7 runners. My selection for the Silver Trophy on Saturday, Irish Prophecy, is going to be very hard to beat. Unfortunately, he won’t be as big a price today but the decision to wait for this much easier opportunity could pay dividends for Emma Lavelle and Ben Jones. This son of Azamour was only a length behind El Presente last time out at Exeter (24f gd/fm). That horse advertised the form by winning off 10lb higher on Saturday.
That suggests that Irish Prophecy is potentially very well treated off 135, 7lb higher than he was at Exeter. Good ground suits and with Jones taking off 3lb, he should go very close. The elder statesman in the field, On Tour, is now a 12yo and he unseated on his seasonal return. However, he is looking dangerously well handicapped off 128 and Conor Ring’s claim means he is effectively racing off 125. He was beat a neck off 127 by Vieux Lion Rouge over this distance at Chepstow a year ago (23.5f sft) and he has loads of winning form on good ground. He could be the one to chase Irish Prophecy home if on a going day and a small reverse forecast is advised.
Clonmel and Taunton Thursday Tips: Irish Prophecy & On Tour reverse forecast.
Clonmel Thursday: 3.00pm – Clonmel Oil Chase (Grade 2)
The feature race at Clonmel is this Grade 2 chase over 20f. A field of 5 will take their chances and it is a quality line up. Cilaos Emery is the market leader for Mullins and Townend on his seasonal return. A Grade 3 winner last term, he ran a lovely race behind Epatante in the Champion Hurdle last season. However, he looked a non stayer on his sole try over 20f and even though the ground will suit, this could be the day to take him on. Bachasson is next best in the betting and he hacked up here on his final start of last season. He needed his comeback run last year though and odds of 15/8 aren’t big enough to warrant a bet.
I thought Snow Falcon ran a blinder for us last time at Down Royal in the Champion Chase. He was beat 6L for the win but he was only 2 lengths or so off a place and less than a length behind Presenting Percy. Jonathon Moore was on board that day but Sean Flanagan now takes over and that is a big plus. The worry is that Snow Falcon flopped on his second start last season after a big run on his return. However, at the prices it is worth chancing that he doesn’t ‘bounce’ this time as he undoubtedly has the ability to play a big part if he is in the mood. Heavy ground is fine and at 10/1 Snow Falcon is worth backing each way.
Clonmel and Taunton Thursday Tips: Snow Falcon e/w @ 10/1
Clonmel Thursday: 3.35pm – Handicap Chase (0-109)
The final live race of the day at Clonmel is a low grade 20f handicap chase. I am going to take a chance on one at a monster price in this open race. The one I like at odds of 33/1 is Macho Mover for Eoin Doyle and Ryan Treacy. This 5yo has failed to fire on his last three starts since going chasing. However, he can be excused his last effort on handicap chase debut at Galway (22f hvy) as he was badly hampered 4 out and he was then impeded again at the 2nd last.
He had actually jumped pretty well until he was taken out of contention and he will be suited by the drop back to 20f today. Macho Mover last won over hurdles at a distance of 21f (sft) with his only other win in that discipline coming on heavy ground over 16f, both at Tramore. He was an eye catcher on his sole start at Clonmel over timber when staying on for 4th over 16.5f (gd/yld) and his trainer does well with his horses at this track (13 wins/38 top 4s from 150 runs). A mark of 100 looks more than fair and with 5 places available (Skybet), Macho Mover is the e/w NAP of the day.
