Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Racing Tips
Lord Rapscallion was our sole place last weekend at 33/1. Professional Widow couldn’t land a blow and it wasn’t soft enough for Louganini. Al Suhail was given a poor ride and could only manage third. Austrian Theory travelled well early but faded badly late on. Zargun was drawn on the wrong side and Dark Pine didn’t go a yard. Extravagant Kid didn’t run to form and I thought Tarboosh was a shade unlucky at York. This weekend the Super Sprint is the highlight in England while in Ireland The Oaks take centre stage. We also have a couple of races from Market Rasen. Check out our Curragh and Newbury Saturday tips below.
1.50 Newbury – Steventon Stakes (Listed)
Ten horses will fight it out for black type in this 10f Listed heat. It is going to be a scorching weekend so the ground will be on the quick side at Newbury. Real World won in the manner of a quality horse in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. He got a 14lb hike for that win and he steps into Listed company now. He still has a bit to find on the figures with the likes of Solid Stone and Stormy Antarctic admittdley. However, this 4yo is clearly on the up and it will be fascinating to see how he fares.
However, I am going to keep the faith with our 40/1 Cambridgeshire Winner Majestic Dawn. This horse destroyed the field in that 9f contest by almost 5L. He was sent on his winter break afterwards and there was plenty to like about his return at Windsor three weeks ago (8f gd). He was beat just under 2L into third by Vintager and he should improve plenty with that run under his belt.
The son of Dawn Approach hosed up in a maiden over 11f at this track. He ran well enough on his only previous try over C&D considering he fell out of the stalls. Stepping back up in trip is going to suit him and Paul Hanagan, who rode in the Cambridgeshire, returns in the plate. Trip, ground and track all look ideal and at odds of 11/1, Majestic Dawn is the each way pick.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Majestic Dawn e/w @ 11/1 NAP (4 places)
2.05 Market Rasen – Summer Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
When I first looked at the ITV Racing schedule for this weekend, I wasn’t too thrilled to see Market Rasen on the list. It is their signature meeting though to be fair, so I can’t complain too much. First up we have the Summer Hurdle, a class 2 with a first prize of over £18k. You wouldn’t expect David O’Meara to have a runner in this, let alone two. However, I think he has an excellent chance of picking up some prize money with the mount of Tom Scudamore, Stonific.
This 8yo hasn’t been sighted over timber since dotting up in a Doncaster handicap (16.5f hvy) off 115 back in February 2020. Since then he has stuck to the flat where he has won three races at 16f, all on good to firm ground. He enjoys going right handed on the level so Market Rasen should suit him. Today’s quick ground will pose no problems either. The son of Sea The Stars is now rated 115, just 7lb higher than when winning by 9L at Donny. In six hurdle runs he has never finished out of the first three when completing and at odds of 20/1, Stonific is worth chancing e/w.
Market Rasen Saturday Tips: Stonific e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)
2.25 Newbury – Bahrain Handicap (Class 2)
One that could go well at a price in this staying handicap is the aptly named Mancini. This son of Nathaniel is a three time winner over 16f on the flat, all on good/good to firm. His last win came a year ago at Sandown off 91 (14f gd/fm) and he is running off the same rating here. This horse has a history of hitting form in July. Since 2017 his form figures when running in that month read 131761. Clearly he must be a horse that enjoys having the sun on his back so he will be relishing the current weather conditions.
His first two runs this season were poor but he had excuses (trip/ground). It was a lot more like it last time in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. Running off 93, he looked like he might take a hand in the finish and he was only 4L behind the winner in 9th. The handicapper has now dropped him to his last winning mark. Richard Kingscote, who has won on him twice before, takes the ride. Blinkers replace the visor worn last time and if they eke out a little bit more improvement, Mancini could go close at odds of 25/1.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Mancini e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
2.40 Market Rasen – Summer Plate Handicap (Grade 3)
The 21.5f Summer Plate is the highlight of the year at Market Rasen. This Grade 3 contest is always a competitive heat and this year is no exception. The one I like at tasty odds e/w is Royal Village for Micky Hammond and Emma Smith-Chaston. This horse was a fortunate winner last time out over C&D, benefitting from a final flight fall of Solar Impulse. The handicapper left his mark alone after that run and he is in off a rating of 130 today.
This son of Scorpion was formerly trained by Ian Williams and he has a good course record. His form figures at Market Rasen read 2411123631, all on good to soft or faster. He finished 2nd in this race in 2019 off 137 (beat 8L) and in 2020 he finished 6th off 141.
His jockey, who has ridden 13 winners (11 for Hammond) claims 7lbs so Royal Village is effectively racing off 123. He’ll think he is running loose with less than 10 stone on his back and the way he has been campaigned suggests that this race has been the plan. His last win should give him plenty of confidence, he loves this track and I think he could outrun his odds of 33/1.
Market Rasen Saturday Tips: Royal Village e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
2.50 Curragh – Sapphire Stakes (Group 2)
The first Irish race of the day we will look at is the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes. Hopefully all eight go to post because I think Erosandpsyche has every chance of hitting the frame at 28/1. Trained by Kieran Cotter, this son of Sepoy made a big impression when winning on his third start at Tipperary (5f yld). Connections expected a big run at Navan on his next start upped in class but he blotted his copybook in the prelims.
He was given a month off (and evidently some behavioural therapy) before returning to action in a Listed contest at Cork (5f yld). Erosandpsyche ran a massive race to finish 3rd, just 2.25L behind Logo Hunter. He then returned to Tipperary for a three runner conditions race (5f gd/fm) and he really seemed to act on the rattling quick ground. A late surge saw him get up late to defeat a decent yardstick in Back To Brussels by a neck and he comes into this race now rated 101.
If that mark is correct he looks up against it. Logo Hunter is rated 113 but he has only a couple of lengths to find with him on their Cork meeting and on this much faster ground I think the Cotter horse could well close the gap. Of the older horses, Gustavus Weston would prefer 6f and Make A Challenge would need torrential rain to show his best. Romantic Proposal has yet to win at the minimum trip and of those at shorter prices, Measure Of Magic is feared most. On his Cork form this horse should not be 28/1 and a small each way interest is advised.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Erosandpsyche e/w @ 28/1 NB
3.00 Newbury – Hackwood Stakes (Group 3)
A disappointing turnout of just seven horses will go for glory in the G3 Hackwood Stakes. The trip is 6f and despite the small field, it is an intriguing little race. We backed Happy Romance at big odds two weeks ago at Sandown and she was very well backed throughout the day (40s into 12s). Dropped out early by Sean Levey, she finished with a wet sail for 3rd, beat just 0.5L for the win. Levey just gave her a bit much to do and if he had timed it better, she would have won that race.
She now steps back up to her last winning distance and she returns to the scene of her signature win as a 2yo. The daughter of Dandy Man scooted home in the Super Sprint here last season (5f gd) and this extra furlong should pose no problems.
The only worry is the possible lack of early pace in the race. Diligent Harry looks most likely to take them along and hopefully he ensures it is an honest gallop. If it is, I can see Happy Romance finishing fast and late and hopefully she gets there in time. At odds of 9/1, she is the each way selection.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Happy Romance e/w @ 9/1
3.25 Curragh – Irish Oaks (Group 1)
The Blue Riband race of the day at the Curragh is the Irish Oaks. Spectacular Epsom Oaks winner Snowfall is long odds on to follow up that 16L victory for Moore and O’Brien. Coolmore are mob handed with the top four in the market and they also run La Joconde. Nicest looks the most likely to chase the favourite home. She ran a blinder behind Loving Dream at Royal Ascot, beat just 2.5L despite a number of things going wrong. She lost a shoe and Gavin Ryan lost his reins briefly so in the circumstances, she did well.
At a monster price, Party House could be worth a second look. By Camelot, this filly showed plenty of ability (and greenness) when winning first time up at Naas (10f gd). Ger Lyons stepped her into Listed company next time and she nicked some black type in 3rd at Navan. The 13f trip possibly stretched her that day but she was only 3L behind subsequent G1 placed Wordsworth.
Last time out she was well beat in another Listed heat behind Willow. However, that doesn’t tell the full story. She seemed to take a false step turning in and once Colin Keane knew the race was gone, he took it handy in the last couple of furlongs. If everything goes right for this filly she will prove better than her current rating of 94. She would have got closer to Willow last time only for that stumble and on her Navan run, 12f could be her optimum trip. I wouldn’t be having the mortgage on but at 50/1, a small each way bet is warranted.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Party House e/w @ 50/1
3.40 Newbury – Weatherbys Super Sprint (Class 2)
A field of 22 juveniles will line up in the stalls for this valuable 5f sales race. Previous winners carry a penalty and weights are determined by how much was paid for each horse at the sales. The one who is best suited by the conditions of the race is undoubtedly Chipotle. The Brockelsby and Windsor Castle winner is rated 105 and carries just 8st 12lbs. If this was a handicap he’d be giving bundles of weight away to most of these (bar Vintage Clarets) and with ground to suit, he looks a rock solid favourite.
Keep Dreaming
Vintage Clarets chased home Berkshire Shadow in the Coventry but I am keeping the faith with another horse who has form with the Coventry winner. Amazonian Dream acted the maggot in the prelims at Ascot and his race was run before it started. He trailed home well beaten but he is better than he showed that day. Oisin Murphy is an excellent booking and the Millmans’ horses are going well. He found just Berkshire Shadow too good on debut and if he can get back to that level, Amazonian Dream will outrun his odds of 28/1.
He is drawn high in stall 17 so I am also going to back one that is drawn low in case there is a bias. We also backed El Maga at Royal Ascot in the Albany and she is drawn in stall 4 today. I was hoping the daughter of Mehmas would go on the heavy ground but she hated it. A debut winner on good at Redcar over 6f, she shaped nicely enough over that trip last time at Ripon (6f gd/sft), just not quite getting home. I think that dropping back to 5f on fast ground on a stiff track could really suit her. She carries a nice low weight and she could prove to be a lot better than her mark of just 77 on this quick ground. At odds of 50/1, El Maga could run into the money.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Amazonian Dream e/w @ 28/1; El Maga e/w @ 50/1 (both 5 places)
4.00 Curragh – Scurry Handicap (3yo+)
Last, but not least, we have the 6.5f Scurry Stakes at the Curragh. 19 are due to go to post and it looks a very tricky puzzle. We backed Goodnight Girl here a few weeks back and she ran a blinder in 2nd. However, the extra 4lbs she has to carry today as well as the extra 63 yards in distance may prove to be her undoing. One that could go well at a price is Midnight Fire for the Hartys and Mark Gallagher.
There are no worries about the distance or course for this horse. He won over 7f on his reappearance at Leopardstown and he won his maiden here over 6f last season. Rated 79, he is 2lb wrong at the weights but as he showed on his second run of his campaign at Cork, he is capable of being competitive off his mark (beat 2L off 80). He meets the winner of that race again today (Hightimeyouwon) and he is now 3lbs better off.
The 4yo son of Mayson has not produced his best the last twice admittedly. However, they were Mickey Mouse races in comparison to this one and I think we’ll see a much better horse today. Both his wins came on good so conditions are fine and Gallagher will have options from stall 11. With 5 places on offer, Midnight Fire is worth backing each way at odds of 28/1.
