Day 1 York Ebor Festival Preview and Tips – DS
Day 1 York Ebor Festival Preview And Tips
We have already posted a couple of ante-post selections for the Ebor Meeting. You can see our Ebor Tip here and our Thursday ante-post pick here. As of yet, the forecast rain hasn’t come so it is going to be rattling quick all week. Hopefully we can land a winner or two, Day 1 York Ebor Festival preview and tips are below.
1.50 – Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Count D’orsay is the one I like here at around 25/1. David Allan and Tim Easterby teamed up to win this race last season with Copper Knight. He won off a mark of 92 that day and he is looking poorly handicapped now off 102, even with Sean Kirrane’s 3lb claim. Count D’orsay, on the other hand, comes into the race off the same rating as he was for his last two wins, 91.
As recently as last month this horse ran a cracker at Ascot, beat 2L off 95 (5f gd/fm). He was only a head or so behind Zarzyni, who he was getting 6lbs from, and he is getting 13lbs from him today. He was also beat 2L by Copper Knight at Chester in June (5f gd) when conceding 1lb to his stablemate. Today, he is 8lbs better off.
The reason this horse is 25/1 is probably because of the ground. The vast majority of his wins have come on easy ground. However, as those Ascot and Chester runs show, he is more than capable of reaching the frame on a quicker surface. The handicapper has given him a real chance now and if he can repeat either of those Ascot or Chester efforts, surely he can go close at odds of 25/1.
Day 1 York Ebor Festival Tip: Count D’orsay e/w @ 25/1 (6 Places) NAP
2.25 – Acomb Stakes (Group 3)
This looks a minefield. A bunch of maiden and novice winners that have yet to race at a higher level. The one I am going to take a chance on is Shaquille. Trained by the shrewd Julie Camacho, this son of Charm Spirit won very impressively over today’s C&D on debut. Ok, Sean Levey had to give him a couple of cracks in the closing stages but to be able to win like that after being so keen early doors suggests that this colt has plenty of natural ability.
That form isn’t overly strong but a few of those in behind have run well since. Hectic, Chaldean and Indestructible should take them along at a good clip here. That will hopefully enable Shaquille to settle better than on debut. We know he handles the track and ground and Sean Levey has retained the ride. He’d be well aware of the levels needed to compete at this level with 2yos. I’d imagine he told Camacho to go for this after his win.
Shaquille’s dam is related to a Listed winner and is out of a G2 winner and I am a fan of Charm Spirit. His progeny tend to relish rattling quick ground and that should be what he gets today. Camacho Has had five winners from her last 20 runners and Levey is 7/40 with 9 Top 4s when riding for this owner. At odds of 25/1, Shaquille is the each way pick.
Day 1 York Ebor Festival Tip: Shaquille e/w @ 25/1
3.00 – Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2)
Just six run in the Great Voltigeur and two of them are trained by up and coming handler James Ferguson. Dan Muscutt is on Deauville Legend, 2nd in a G3 at Goodwood last time. He is guaranteed to go on the ground and that is probably why he is 7/2 and his stablemate El Bodegon is 14/1. That colt has G1 winning form in the book but this will be his first go on proper fast ground. He ran here over 10f on good back in May and was beat 10L. Connections blamed the ground which was officially good. It’ll probably be even quicker today so I would guess he’ll be withdrawn if no rain comes.
Secret State had Deauville Legend a head behind when winning at Ascot off 93. He is 4lbs better off with that rival now so unsurprisingly, he is the 2/1 fav. Aikhal isn’t the moat reliable of horses but he had one of his better days at the Curragh last time. Maybe that’ll boost his confidence and he’ll go in again. However, looking at his overall profile, I couldn’t back him at just 7/2.
Alliance Could Outrun Odds
Walk of Stars flopped at Epsom but he bounced back behind Deauville Legend at Newmarket (13f gd/fm). He could reverse that form over this shorter trip and a big run would come as no surprise. At the prices, maybe Grand Alliance is worth a small e/w interest. He ran a stinker last time at Goodwood but I am always willing to forgive a poor effort at that tricky track.
On his previous start he ran an absolute cracker behind Changingoftheguard in an Ascot G2. That was in a first time visor and this time he is in first time cheekpieces. A repeat of that Ascot effort would give him every chance here and it is arguably one of the strongest pieces of fast ground form in the race. Tom Marquand has finished in the frame on 7/10 rides for Fellowes (1 win) and at odds of 22/1, hopefully he can steer Grand Alliance into the first two.
Day 1 York Ebor Festival Tip: Grand Alliance e/w @ 22/1 NB
3.35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)
With Alenquer already withdrawn, we are now down to 6 in Day 1’s feature. The mighty Baaeed finally steps up in trip and he is 2/5 to extend his winning sequence. It is gas reading all the debates on Twitter about who is better, Baaeed, Sea The Stars or Frankel. They are three completely different horses and you can’t really compare them. There is no doubt that Baaeed is the top dog right now though and he looks made for this distance, in my opinion. Yes, it is a new trip which is an unknown but on pedigree and run style, he should be grand.
Mishriff looks the biggest threat on paper but he has become a bit of a monkey this season. He has been slow away the last twice and he can’t afford to do that here. Yes, he probably should have won the Eclipse but I’m not sure his mind is fully on the job these days. Native Trail was a neck behind Mishriff at Sandown. He has now tasted defeat on two of his last three starts and while he should run his race, it is hard to see him toppling Baaeed.
Drop In Trip
Of the rest, High Definition should improve now he drops back to 10f. The highly touted son of Galileo has never really lived up to expectations and he wasn’t really suited by 12f the last twice. On his last start over 10f on decent ground he ran a cracker when just failing to make all in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup. He had Lord North 1.75L behind so on a line through him he has nothing to find with either Mishriff or Native Trail.
In this small field he should be able to dictate and this easier track will be a plus for him too. Ryan Moore is on board and if Mishriff fluffs the start, hopefully he takes full advantage and gets a decent lead ahead of him. He might well struggle to hold off Baaeed’s challenge but he is capable of putting it up to the rest of these. I am recommending a small e/w bet on High Definition at 50/1 and also a small bet on him in the betting w/o Baaeed market at odds of 16/1, both with Bet365.
