Day 2 York Ebor Festival Preview and Tips – DS
Day 2 York Ebor Festival Preview And Tips
There are bad days, then there are bad days like Wednesday. Absolutely nothing went right for us with three of our fancies coming last and the other coming 3rd last. There’s no point in looking back through each run, they simply all ran shite. You can check out our Ebor Tip here, Day 2 York Ebor Festival preview and tips are below.
1.50 – Lowther Stakes (Group 2)
This is a cracker of a Group 2. Queen Mary winner Dramatised is back for the first time since Ascot. She is 2/2 now and the bookies have put her in at even money. The worry for her backers is how poorly that Ascot form has worked out. Maylandsea and Maria Branwell have both disappointed since and that has to be worrying for anyone considering having a wedge on Karl Burke’s daughter of Showcasing.
Mawj is next best in the betting for bin Suroor and Ray Dawson. By Exceed and Excel, this filly is 2/3 so far. Her sole defeat came at Royal Ascot where she found Meditate too good by 1.75L. The O’Brien Filly is a horse I really like and I think she could win next season’s 1000 Guineas. Mawj is 9/2 but the 12/1 3rd fav Matilda Picotte finished the exact same distance behind Meditate at Naas yet she is as big as 12/1.
Irish Raiders
Kieran Cotter’s filly is the most likely of the two Irish raiders. She was too keen that day she finished behind Meditate at Naas (6f gd) and if she raced more evenly, she could have won. The daughter of Sioux Nation then ran a cracker behind Statuette at the Curragh (6f yld), picking up precious black type in that Group 2. Connections elected to go for a huge pot back at Naas last time out and she found just Voce Del Palio too good. I think this track is really going to suit this speedster and of those at the head of the market, she represents the best value by far.
On pedigree, Queen Me is a fascinating contender. She is a well built filly who won her sole start to date at Haydock (6f gd/sft). It wasn’t a great race and while it took her a while to get on top, she won cosily in the end. She is by a top sire in Dubawi and her dam, Queen Kindly, won this race back in 2016. That was on similar ground to today’s and with Kevin Ryan already amongst the winners, Queen Me is the e/w selection at 28/1.
Day 2 York Ebor Festival Tip: Queen Me e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
2.25 – Premier Yearling Stakes (Class 2)
When Andrew Balding has a first time out 2yo winner, they are usually pretty talented. So many of his juveniles improve massively for their debuts so Matching Sox is of huge interest in this valuable sales race. He is not by the most fashionable of sires in Camacho but he is out of a prolific dam. Seven of his eight half siblings have won on the level, including the high class G3 (and York winner), Graphic.
On debut at Kempton Balding’s charge beat a long odds on shot. It looked like he was coming to challenge for the win when the eventual runner up hung badly across the track but even if he had kept straight, it would have been close. The hood he wore at Kempton is retained and judging by how well he finished, this extra furlong should pose absolutely no problems. Camacho’s progeny usually relish fast ground and at odds of 14/1, Matching Sox is the each way selection.
Day 2 York Ebor Festival Tip: Matching Sox e/w @ 14/1 (5 places) NAP
3.00 – Clipper Logistics Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
I’ve already put up Young Fire e/w for this ante-post at 66/1. Read my reasoning here. Given that he is drawn 20 and it hasn’t rained, I’m going to back another one drawn lower who is going to relish the conditions. Escobar and Ouzo both make a bit of appeal from stall 7 and 8 but in stall 10, What’s The Story ticks a fair few boxes.
I am usually not a fan of backing horses in a handicap that won last time out. However, this fella dotted up over 10f off 90 last time and even though he is up to 96 now, he is still fairly handicapped on form he showed as recently as May. In that race over today’s C&D he ran a cracker to finish 4th off 97, just 2L behind Cruyff Turn. He is 4lbs better off with that rival today yet he is almost 3x his price.
This son of Harbour Watch has a fine record over a mile at York on good or quicker. He has only finished outside the top 5 once and that was in this race when beat 8L off 106. His form figures at 8f here read 11045 and the wins came off 96 and this race in 2019 off 103. Since he was beaten 3L off 106 here in May last year Keith Dalgleish has been trying to get this horse down the weights. Now that he has put two good runs together and he is back at his fav track, What’s The Story can hopefully add another good effort today at 33/1.
Day 2 York Ebor Festival Tip: What’s The Story e/w @ 33/1 (6 Places) NB; Young Fire already advised @ 66/1
3.35 – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1)
Just the seven contenders for the Yorkshire Oaks and Alpinista is a warm favourite. Mark Prescott’s flagship mare is unbeaten since finishing 2nd in a G3 in September 2020. In that time she has won six from six, including four in a row at G1 level. Fast ground holds no fears (unbeaten on firm/good to firm) and it is going to take a top class performance to topple her.
The bookies make Tuesday the 2nd fav at 4/1. Aidan O’Brien’s filly won the Epsom Oaks but that form has been let down since (by her and by Emily Upjohn). In fact, on what we have seen subsequently, the best horse in that race finished 3rd (Nashwa). She is rated 115, just 3lbs inferior to Alpinista, so in receipt of 9lbs she should win. I’m not convinced she is as good as the handicapper thinks though and I don’t fancy her.
Strong Irish Challenge
La Petite Coco and Magical Lagoon are the two other Irish challengers. Magical Lagoon gets the weight allowance but her form is questionable. She landed the Irish Oaks last time but it was one of the worst renewals that I can remember. Paddy Twomey’s horses should always be respected and La Petite Coco is fascinating here stepping up in trip. She has won 5 of her last 6, including a Curragh G1 last time. The 12f trip will be fine, I’d just have a slight concern about the ground for her.
Raclette is also an unknown quantity on rattling quick ground. She has won 4 of her 6 starts and she landed a G2 last time at Longchamp (12f gd/sft). She is by Frankel and her dam relished firm ground so on pedigree, she could well improve on this surface. The virus in William Haggas’ yard is a worry for Lilac Road supporters. She was only 2.75L off Nashwa last time at Goodwood and she won well over 10f here previously. If the Haggas horses were fully healthy, I’d be all over her but I think, at the prices, it might be worth chancing Raclette e/w with 3 places on offer from a couple of firms.
Day 2 York Ebor Festival Tip: Raclette e/w @ 10/1 (3 places)
4.10 – Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed)
Now that she drops back in trip from 14f, Quenelle D’or could outrun her odds here. Trained by Hugo Palmer, this filly has been written off on the back of her below par run in Ireland last time. She was beat 23L but Colin Keane eased off once her chance was gone and she seemed to throw her dummy out of the pram after meeting interference around 2f out. She ran a much better race on her seasonal return at Ascot, beat just 3L in a strong 14f handicap off 100.
On this daughter of Golden Horn’s last try at 12f, she won a Listed heat in France (gd/sft). She followed that with a poor run at Saint Cloud (14f v sft) when the ground was far too testing. Her last three runs have come at 14f but she has only finished out of the first three once from five starts at 12f. It looks to me like it is her optimum trip and with a rating of 100, she is the second best horse in the race on paper. It won’t be easy conceding weight to Golden Lyra or Mimikyu but if the 4yo produces what she is capable of, she should be up to nicking more black type at 28/1.
