Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Preview – DS
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Preview
We managed to turn a tidy profit on Champions Day despite not finding a winner. The highlight was Run To Freedom placing at 150s in the Sprint. Our NB Thunder Kiss then just found on too good at 50s. Tempus was outclassed in the QEII and Stone Age ran ok but was unplaced. Rhoscolyn ran well below par, we’ll have to wait for the Royal Meeting next year to get our money back on him. Tomorrow we have a mix of jumps and flat action, check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham (and Newbury) tips below.
1.50 Newbury – Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)
Long time followers will remember me putting Scope up for the Leger last year. He didn’t win that race but then went on to win the French version. The same connections are represented by Promoter in this 7f Group 3 and he made a big impression on me with the manner of his novice win at Chepstow.
The son of Showcasing didn’t show much on his debut at Newbury (6f gd/sft). It looked like he needed the experience badly and that proved to be the case. At Chepstow he wasn’t the best away from the gates but Rossa Ryan soon pushed him up to a prominent posi on the inner. He travelled powerfully throughout the race and when Ryan asked him to put the race to bed, he did so emphatically.
The winning margin was officially 1.5L but Ryan eased up and he could have won by at least twice that distance. The runner up has since won a maiden and while the form isn’t anything special, Promoter gave the impression he had plenty more to give. Trip and ground are ideal, Rossa Ryan has a win and a 2nd from just 3 rides for this owner and he’s 51/204 for Beckett. Hopefully that strike rate is enhanced with Promoter, he is the e/w selection at odds of 16/1.
Saturday Newbury Tip: Promoter e/w @ 16/1 NAP
2.05 Cheltenham – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
My original pick for this race was Lord Accord. However, after seeing how much rain fell at Cheltenham on Friday, I think this race is a minefield. The Wolf won’t mind the ground and the same sentiment applies to Motown Maggie. Her last win came on nice ground but she has plenty of form on softer surfaces.
The bookies haven’t missed either of those horses though and they are 9/1 and 10/1 respectively. I was going to sit this race out but given the ground concerns for quite a few of them, I’ll play the reverse forecast for small stakes on The Wolf and Motown Maggie.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tip: The Wolf/Motown Maggie reverse forecast
2.25 Newbury – St Simon Stakes (Group 3)
Hamish has been in sparkling form this season and he is hard to oppose in this 12f G3. He got to within a length of Kyprios on his penultimate start at the Curragh (14f yld, G1) and he followed that up with an impressive G2 victory at Ascot (12f gd/sft). He does have to carry a penalty but even with that extra weight, a repeat of any of his runs this season should suffice.
One horse that could go well now getting soft ground for the first time is Goolwa. Trained by Andrew Balding, this daughter of Australia looks to have it all to do on the figures. She is only rated 93 so she’d probably need to improve more than a stone to trouble the top three or four here. However, she ran much better than the distance beaten suggests last time and with a clear run she’d have finished far closer to the 100 rated runner up.
Finished Strongly
In that 14f Listed heat at Yarmouth she was last turning in. William Buick went the brave man’s route and he was stuck behind horses from the 4f pole to the 2f pole. When he finally found daylight, his mount picked up well and finished strongly to get up for 3rd.
The daughter of Australia is out of a Pivotal mare so soft ground should suit. Her half brother Onenightidreamed was a five time winner on bad ground, including two G3s. This will be Goolwa’s first go on testing ground and in the hope she relishes it, a small e/w bet is advised at odds of 50/1.
Saturday Newbury Tip: Goolwa e/w @ 50/1
2.40 Cheltenham – Mastersons Holdings Hurdle (Class 2)
Just five runners in this Class 2 Hurdle and it looks a two horse race on the figures. The 1-2 from the Grade 1 Novice at Aintree renew rivalries and it is the runner up who is favoured by the bookies. Pied Piper is chalked up at even money and Knight Salute is 5/2. If I was backing either of them, I’d have to side with the Harris horse. Yes, he needed intervention by the Stewards at Aintree after dead heating with the Elliott horse but I don’t think he should be double Pied Piper’s price. In any case, this is a race to just watch with a view to bigger races later in the season. No bet.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tip: No Bet
3.00 Doncaster – Doncaster Stakes (Listed)
After a lot of rain at Doncaster on Friday, it’s going to be extremely testing today. Heavy ground is an unknown for all of these 2yos. Aesop’s Fables is fav but he was pretty well beaten on his sole start on soft. Both his wins came on good earlier this season. Hispanic is the mount of Wayne Lordan and he dotted up by 8L on yielding last time. That was only a maiden though and this will be a far greater test.
Showcasing’s progeny often enjoy running on bad ground and Wodao is 1/2 on soft ground. He got to within 0.5L of The Antarctic (subsequently 2nd in the Middle Park) on soft at Tipperary and he landed a Listed race over the same C&D on yielding to soft on his penultimate outing. Yes, he was well beat behind Rumstar in a Newmarket G3 on his last outing but that was on good ground. His dam is a half to a heavy ground winner and at odds of 12/1, hopefully Wodao is cut from the same cloth.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tip: Wodao e/w @ 12/1
3.15 Cheltenham – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Unfortunately just seven will go to post for this handicap chase over 16f. Some bookies are paying 3 places at 1/5 odds but to be honest, nothing is jumping out as being particularly overpriced. Editeur De Gite is the class act in the race but that’s reflected in the weight he has to carry. Clear The Runway is in great form and racefit but this will be a far tougher test and a big ask on his first ever visit to Cheltenham. Dads Lad could be well treated off 135 but odds of 4/1 are too short for my liking. Another no bet race.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tip: No Bet
3.35 Doncaster – Vertem Futurity Stakes (Group 1)
The big race today is the G1 Vertem Futurity Stakes. We have a field of 8 currently but with the big change in going, you’d worry that one or two might be pulled out. Hopefully we get the full eight and three places e/w. Auguste Rodin proved he could handle soft last time at Leopardstown. However, this is going to be far softer and it is a worry that Deep Impact’s progeny are 0/5 on heavy ground. Maybe he’ll buck the trend but at 11/10, he’s not for me.
Salt Lake City has won on soft, a Navan maiden. However, Galileo has had five previous runners by Kyllachy mares and they were all best on nicer ground. Galileo’s progeny are usually more at home on decent ground too so on heavy, Salt Lake City might just struggle.
Take A Chance On Magic
It’s not often you see Roger Teal with a runner in these type of races. He runs Dancing Magic here and Jim Crowley takes the ride. This son of Camelot remains a maiden after four runs but he has shown some very smart form. Beat a length on debut at Salisbury (7f gd/fm), he then went very close over the same distance at Newbury when 2nd to Tarjeeh. Bresson was back in 3rd and he’s well fancied for the Doncaster Stakes.
On his penultimate outing at Haydock this horse ran in a Listed race over 1 mile. He again finished a very good 2nd, 1.25L behind the 110 rated Naval Power. Last time out he ran 4th in the G2 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket (8f gd) where he finished 0.75L behind Holloway Boy. That horse is the 10/1 3rd fav today, whereas Dancing Magic is 50/1. Should there be that much difference between their odds?
As is the case with the rest of these, Teal’s charge has yet to encounter ground like this. However, his sire Camelot has a pretty decent strike rate with his heavy ground runners (20/155 with 50 places) and his half brother’s maiden win came over 8f on heavy ground. When conditions are as bad as this anything can happen, hopefully Dancing Magic can conjure up a surprise at odds of 40/1.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tip: Dancing Magic e/w @ 40/1
3.50 Cheltenham – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
24f awaits a field of 18 in this qualifier for the 3m handicap at the Festival. The rain softened ground won’t be any help to quite a few of these but one horse that will be delighted with the conditions is Silver Sheen. Fergal O’Brien’s horses are running out of their skins and this recruit from Ireland has his first run for him in this contest. Formerly trained by Jessie Harrington, he is a three time hurdle winner, all on soft ground.
The son of Sulamani’s last win came on a foray to the UK when he landed one of these qualifiers on testing ground at Warwick. That came off a mark of 130 and he is only 2lbs higher today. The 8yo has generally struggled since then but he showed he retained ability on his penultimate Irish start when chasing home our mate Capilano Bridge at Fairyhouse’s Grand National meeting.
Last time out at Punchestown he was pulled up but the ground was too lively for him. The return to soft ground should suit and his trainer couldn’t be in much better form ahead of his comeback. He’s had six winners in the last fortnight and hopefully this lad can add to his tally. At odds of 14/1, Silver Sheen is the e/w pick.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tip: Silver Sheen e/w @ 14/1 (5 places)
4.10 Doncaster – Vertem Handicap (Class 2)
Tolstoy has flopped on his last two starts, on the a/w at Chelmsford and on fast ground at Ascot. However, his last run on soft at Chester was a cracker and back on that type of ground, he could bounce back on his third run for Stuart Williams.
In that Chester race he was denied a clear run so he could have finished a lot closer to the winner Ever Given. He was racing off 94 and Ever Given was in off 97 and there was 4L between them. Hugo Palmer’s horse has since won a Listed and been placed in a G3 and he is now rated 106.
On ground with soft in the description Tolstoy has form figures of 1412. Heavy is an unknown but his sire, Kingman, has a decent record with his progeny on that sort of ground. He was a G1 winner on heavy himself and his offspring have won 8/40 on heavy ground for a 20% strike rate. Jim Crowley is 8/91 with 27 top 4 finishes for Williams and in the hope that the ground sparks a revival, Tolstoy is the e/w pick at 28/1.
