Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips
Apart from Debestyman it was a disaster of a day on Friday. Finisk River and Doctor Duffy both jumped poorly and never looked like threatening. Bernardo O’Reilly looked like he was feeling the exertions of a long season. Debestyman ran a blinder to finish 2nd for us at 28/1. He has a big one in him. Amazing Red looked like he was travelling best 4f out but found nil. Movie Legend was disappointing and he could never land a blow. We are back at Cheltenham on Saturday and at Doncaster for the last Group 1 of the season, the Vertem Futurity Stakes. You can check out Dave Stevos’ Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday tips below…
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: 1.45pm – Doncaster Stakes (Listed)
Only six go to post for this 2yo Listed contest and it doesn’t appeal as a betting heat. Just Frank was mightily impressive on his first start at 6f when dotting up at Newmarket. Zamaani already has placed listed form in the book on soft and he his a serious contender. Lippzaner ran well in a G3 last time and is another one with claims for O’Brien and Moore. However, it looks like the bookies are taking no chances and I’ll be sitting this one out. No bet.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: No Bet
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: 2.05pm – 4yo Hurdle (Class 2)
Another small field with just 7 due to go to post for this 4yo 16.5f hurdle. Anna Bunina is an interesting runner for in form John McConnell. Richard Johnson will ride and this filly has had a fine summer. She ran very well in a handicap off 126 at Listowel last time out, following up on two impressive maiden and novice hurdle wins. She will enjoy the good ground and gets a nice chunk of from the boys too. However, odds of 4/1 look a bit short for her given this is her toughest assignment yet.
Allmankind (1st) and Botox Has (2nd) have Grade 2 course form in the book and look closely matched on that. Allmankind went on to score in a Grade 1 at Chepstow before placing in the Triumph Hurdle. He has the best form by far, he is the highest rated and he looks the most likely winner. Nothing really appeals at bigger odds and this is another race I won’t get involved in. No bet.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: No Bet
Doncaster Saturday: 2.20pm – Vertem Handicap (Class 2)
With the ground on the easy side, Orvar represents a bit of each way value in this 5f handicap. Paul Midgley runs two and William Buick rides Orvar while Franny Norton is on Tanasoq. The latter horse would prefer quicker ground but Orvar loves to get his toe in. He needs to bounce back from a poor run at York last time but that is a real possibility, especially now he returns to one of his favourite tracks.
His sole start at this track on soft ground resulted in a win off 89 in August of last year. He has also won here on good to firm off 91, two years ago. He has had 7 different jockeys on for each of his 8 wins so it doesn’t seem to matter who rides when he is on his game. This will be William Buick’s first spin on this fella and he will hopefully get a good tune out of him. At odds of 9/1, Orvar is the each way tip.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Orvar e/w @ 9/1
Cheltenham: 2.40pm – Novices’ Chase (Class 2)
Only 4 runners will line up in this Novices’ Chase and they all have some sort of chance. Pileon and Southfield Stone head the market and on ratings they should finish 1-2. Pileon’s course form probably swings the balance in his favour as Southfield Stone’s best form has come on flat, sharp tracks like Kempton and Musselburgh. Not That Fuisse could be the one to give Pileon most to think about. His runs here behind Al Dancer would put him right in the mix and he looked good when winning last time at Perth. Coole Cody is rated 137 and he is not very well treated by the conditions of this race. However, he is a strong traveller and if they give him too much rope in front he could nick it. With just 4 runners and win only betting available, this is another one I’ll just watch. No bet.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: No Bet
Doncaster Saturday: 2.55pm – Vertem Futurity Stakes (Group 1)
We backed Poetic Flare in the Dewhurst and he came out and won in a Leopardstown G3 this week. He clearly badly needed the run at Newmarket and Mac Swiney has had a much cleaner preparation for this Group 1. I think he is massively overpriced for Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning at odds of 18/1 given his liking for soft ground. Okay, he ran poorly last time on his first try at G1 level but the ground was good. Previously he won a G2 on soft at the Curragh and the way he finished that race off over 7f suggested that 8f would be right up his street.
By New Approach, he broke his maiden on yielding ground at the Curragh, beating Wembley by 1.5L. The O’Brien horse is the 6/4 favourite for today’s race and on soft ground, there should be very little between him and Mac Swiney. One Ruler, Cobh, State Of Rest and Baradar are others in this that could play a part at the finish and in all honesty it looks a very open contest. However, at the prices, MacSwiney is the each way selection.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Mac Swiney e/w @ 18/1 NB
Cheltenham Saturday: 3.15pm – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
A big field of 18 go to post for this 24f handicap hurdle which serves as a Festival Qualifier. If he is fully wound up on his return, Champagne Court has the ability to go well here off a mark of 134. He is rated 7lb higher over fences and has won off 138 in that sphere, so he does look well treated now back over timber. He ran nice races on both previous hurdle runs at Cheltenham, including a solid 4th in the Martin Pipe off 126 in 2019 (20.5f gd/sft).
The 7yo son of Court Cave has yet to tackle 3 miles under rules but he was twice placed at the distance in P2Ps. His has won on ground ranging from soft to good to soft so conditions today will be fine. The fact he had a wind op in the off season is interesting too and if he improves for it he should be very competitive. Nick Schofield knows him well and with 5 places on offer, he is worth backing e/w at 14/1.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Champagne Court e/w @ 14/1 (5 Places)
Newbury Saturday: 3.35pm – Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)
Th first of two live races from Newbury on ITV4 is the G3 Horris Hill Stakes. The one I like here is Autumn Twilight for David Menuisier and Jamie Spencer. After a slow start to the season Menuisier is flying now and this son of Buratino made a very pleasing debut at Salisbury (7f sft). He held on to win by a head from Ensyaaby and the form received a big boost during the week with the 5th home in the race (Entwine) going on to win easily at Newmarket next time out.
She was 4L behind Autumn Twilight at Salisbury so the form of that win looks decent now. Autumn Flight showed some signs of greenness too when drifting right under pressure and he will have learned a lot from that outing. Unlike some of the horses at the head of the market, this fella has proven himself on soft and that is a big plus when you consider how testing the ground will be out there. Hopefully he is equally as effective on heavy and if he is, he could outrun his odds of 20/1 for each way players.
Newbury Saturday Tips: Autumn Twilight e/w @ 20/1
Cheltenham Saturday: 3.50pm – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Some familiar names will line up in this 25f handicap chase. With rain forecast it might turn soft and if it does, that won’t be any help to the favourite Cobra De Mai. However, if the rain does come it will really suit Sensulano. Noel Williams’ Milan mare goes well fresh and Paddy Brennan rides. He has to do 10 stone to ride this mare and he was on board for her excellent Grade 2 effort behind Magic Of Light at Ascot last January (23.5f hvy). That was her first try at further than 21f and she proved she could stay the trip.
Sensulano has had just one run at Cheltenham before and it resulted in victory (20.5f gd/sft). She took to chasing well last season, winning a mares’ chase on soft and a Listed Novice on heavy. She made her handicap chase debut on her final start of last season at Kempton when the ground was likely a bit too quick for her. Looking at the times on Friday there should be enough juice for her to show her best and any more rain would greatly enhance her chances. At odds of 14/1, Sensulano could go well and she is the e/w selection.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Sensulano e/w @ 14/1 NAP (4 Places)
Newbury Saturday: 4.10pm – St Simon Stakes (Group 3)
The finale on ITV4 on Saturday is this 8 runner Group 3 over a trip of 12f. One that could run well at a nice price here is our old friend Glencadam Glory. We were on at big odds in the Ebor when he ran a huge race to finish 2nd. That came off a mark of 99 and he then struggled to dominate on his next start when well beat at Haydock. This drop back to 12f could suit this son of Nathaniel and we know he handles soft. Hopefully he is just as good on heavy ground too.
He had form in pattern company when trained by John Gosden, including a decent effort in the 2017 Epsom Derby. Rob Hornby rides and he is 5/25 for Tim Easterby with a further 9 top 4 finishes. In this smaller field Glencadam Glory might get an easier lead than he did at Haydock but he can be held up too, just like he was when staying on strongly over this trip at Ripon. With a rating of 104 he has a bit to find with a couple of these but at odds of 20/1 with 4 places on offer from Skybet, I think he is worth chancing each way.
