Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips Dave Stevos
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips
Unfortunately, Champions Day didn’t go to plan. Berkshire Rocco got hampered early and never seemed comfortable afterwards. The race wasn’t run to suit Brando and he will hopefully now enjoy a long and happy retirement. Lady Hayes wasn’t good enough but at least Lady Bowthorpe landed place money for us. The ground was probably against Addeybb and Rhoscolyn ran well but missed out on place money in the finale. The jumps are back this weekend and we also have a G1 on the level. Check out our Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday preview and tips below.
1.45 Cheltenham – Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
The ground is going to be good at Cheltenham on Saturday after a few dry days. The opening race of this year’s Showcase Meeting is a 16.5f handicap hurdle. The one that looks overpriced at 33/1 is Pasvolsky. Chris Gordon’s 6yo son of Aizavoski has disappointed on his last two outings. However, it was an extremely hot handicap he ran in at Sandown on his penultimate start and last time he likely needed the run at Fontwell.
Up until that Sandown run, this fella looked progressive. Three runs ago he landed his third win in four starts when he beat Straw Fan Jack at Kempton (16f gd). He was getting 3lbs from that rival and today he gets 7lbs. Straw Fan Jack is 16/1 here and Pasvolsky is double that price. Jason Dixon has been booked for the ride and he is 1/1 when riding for Chris Gordon. Dixon will be having his first ride at Cheltenham. However, he has ridden 21 winners elsewhere and he scored on his first visits to Fakenham and Kempton so he should be fine.
The handicapper has dropped Pasvolsky to a mark of 125. On the form of his Kempton novice win, that mark looks workable. Flic Ou Voyou was back in 3rd (rated 136 now) and the 4th and 5th have both won races since. This fella is 2/3 on good ground over 16f and he has had a day out to blow away the cobwebs. With extra places on offer, Pasvolsky is the each way selection for small stakes at 33/1.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Pasvolsky e/w @ 33/1 (5 Places)
2.00 Newbury – Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)
We’ll also be taking in a couple of Group 3s from Newbury today. The first of them is a 7f heat for the 2yos and the ground is going to be very testing. This will be a war of attrition for these young horses and Noble Truth is the 11/10 fav after a cracking run on heavy in a G1 in France last time. However, all his wins have come on much nicer ground and it is not a given that he’ll go on this type of a surface again.
At huge odds, Red Vineyard is a fascinating runner. He is by Slade Power and he is related to some cracking horses, including Red Cadeaux and Amazing Red. They both handled cut in the ground and so did this colt’s sire. Some of his progeny have handled heavy ground very well so there is a lot of encouragement regarding today’s conditions in his pedigree.
On this type of ground, stamina is going to come to the fore. The way this colt won at Ffos Las (7f gd) suggested that he would certainly get further in time. He did show a nice bit of speed between the 2f and 1f poles and then when he was challenged late on, his staying power saw him home. Upton Park, who finished three lengths back in 3rd, won next time out so there is a small bit of substance to the form. Hollie Doyle keeps the faith and if Red Vineyard handles the ground, he could surprise with a big run at 33/1.
Newbury Saturday Tips: Red Vineyard e/w @ 33/1
2.20 Cheltenham – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Fourteen will go to post for this 25f chase and it’s wide open. This race has been won by some quality horses in the last couple of years. Last year Frodon scored on his seasonal return and the year before, The Conditional won it. Quite a few of these horses are having their first runs of the season. You would imagine that the likes of Cloth Cap and Truckers Lodge will have their eyes on bigger races later on in the season and they’ll be keen to get a few pounds back from the handicapper.
One horse who will probably need to go up a few pounds to get into bigger races later in the season is Cool Mix. Iain Jardine’s grey son of Fair Mix last won in October last year when scoring at Wetherby off 126. Storm Control (fav today) was 11L behind in 3rd and they meet on identical terms today. He has come up short off 132/131 in four races since but he was running in hot races.
Conor O’Farrell’s mount was beat just 4L in the Listed Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle off 132 and he was arguably unlucky given he was badly hampered. He also ran a blinder in the Scottish National (32f gd) off 131 when 5th. He is back down to 130 now and on two of his last four runs he showed he is capable of being competitive off that rating. Good ground will suit, Jardine is in form so at 14/1, Cool Mix is the e/w pick.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Cool Mix e/w @ 14/1 NB (4 Places)
2.35 Newbury – St Simon Stakes (Group 3)
Just the seven will line up in the stalls for this 12f Group 3. Siskany heads the market for Appleby and Doyle after his impressive Newmarket handicap win last time (12f gd/sft). He has won on soft but he was beat off 98 on his penultimate outing on soft ground at Goodwood. He does get weight from his rivals though and that could be crucial in these testing conditions. Ilaraab has placed form at this level and he has also won on soft.
Max Vega is a former G3 winner on soft and he wasn’t disgraced in a G2 his sole start on heavy. He has yet to get his favoured ground this season but he has still been running nice races on good. Given that he is already proven at this level and on the ground, I think he represents the best value of those at the head of the market. At odds of 9/2, a win bet is advised.
Newbury Saturday Tips: Max Vega win @ 9/2
2.55 Cheltenham – Mastersons Holding Hurdle (Class 2)
Just the four have showed up for this 4yo Class 2 hurdle. There should be nothing between Tritonic and Stepney Causeway at the figures. I Like To Move has the potential to spring a small surprise. However, I have no strong opinion on this race and it is one I am happy to watch with a view to future engagements. No bet.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.15 Doncaster – Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1)
The big flat race on ITV is the G1 Vertem Futurity Stakes. This 8f heat is for 2yos only and the unbeaten Luxembourg is even money for Moore and O’Brien. The son of Camelot has won both his starts at Killarney and the Curragh. He landed a G2 last time out by nearly 5L but it was probably a weak race for that level. The ground was good for both of his runs so the soft ground at Doncaster is a worry. At the prices I would definitely prefer to look elsewhere.
Royal Patronage won for us earlier this season at York at 25s. The bookies allowed him to go off at 7/2 last time and he again defied their expectations by lowering the colours of Coroebus. He franked that form next time out at Newmarket when winning a G3. However, soft ground is an unknown for him too. He did at least win on good to soft at Epsom though and 9/2 could look a big price if he handles the surface.
Can Bolger Strike Again
Jim Bolger won this race last season with Mac Swiney. He sends McTigue over this year and Irish Classic winning jockey Rory Cleary rides. Stable jockey Kevin Manning has decided to stay at home and ride at Leopardstown where he has some obvious chances. This colt broke his maiden tag at the second attempt at Leopardstown. It took him an age to hit top gear but when he did he flew home. He just got up in the dying strides to beat Chicago Soldier.
On his debut at Galway (7f yld) he ran really well too. He was only 1.5L behind I Am Magic, a horse who has since gone close in G3 company. Anchorage was 1.25L ahead in 2nd and he is rated 100 now after a facile handicap win. On that run, a mark of just 91 might underestimate this horse. Also, unlike a few of the shorter priced ones, he has proven form on soft ground. At the current prices, McTigue is the each way selection at odds of 33/1.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: McTigue e/w @ 33/1
3.30 Cheltenham – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Nine handicap chasers will go to post for this 16f heat. Sky Pirate carries top weight and he is the class act in this race. His last start saw him winning the Grand Annual off 152 but this is a big ask carrying 11-12 on his seasonal comeback and you would think he’ll have bigger fish to fry later on in the season. Before Midnight gets over 20lbs from Sky Pirate and he is the market leader. Sam Thomas’ son of Midnight Legend will enjoy the good ground and if he can defy a 7lb rise for his last run, connections will be dreaming of big things back here in March.
Off a feather weight, Ashutor is interesting for Sophie Leech and Ciaran Gethings. This horse was formerly trained by Paul Nicholls. He is a two time chase winner, the last one coming off 132 at Fontwell (18f sft). He also has winning and placed form on good ground so conditions should be grand for him. On his last run at Sandown (20f gd) he finished 13L behind Belargus when 5th of 8. The son of Redoute’s Choice was actually bang there two out, he just didn’t stay the 20f trip.
Ashutor was conceding 7lbs to Belargus that day and today, he is off level weights. His only previous run at Cheltenham saw him finish 9th of 19 in the Grand Annual so he has track experience. His yard is in decent form, he is just 1lbs above his last winning mark (won by 11L) and at odds of 14/1, Ashutor is the each way selection.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Ashutor e/w @ 14/1
3.50 Doncaster – Doncaster Stakes (Listed)
This is not an attractive race from a punting perspective. Flaming Rib is the clear form pick but this is the softest ground he has run on. Deodar and Gold Medal both come into the race having won maidens last time out. They were both visually impressive but conditions will be different today. Mohi has won his last two handicaps but he was well beat his sole start on soft.
Parisiac does make some appeal at 10/1. He won at big odds on his debut on soft ground and the horse he beat is a decent yardstick. Kit Gabriel and Mot And The Messer complete the field and they look to be tilting at windmills on all known form. With only seven runners, this is another race I’ll be sitting out. If I had to back one it would be Parisiac but with just two places on offer, I’m happy enough to just watch.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: No Bet
4.05 Cheltenham – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
I am going to take a chance on the old boy Tobefair in this 24f handicap hurdle. Debra Hamer’s stable star has tumbled down the weights since he finished an 11L 4th off 151 here back in November. He is now rated 135 and his last two runs should have left him spot on fitness wise for today. He won this race on heavy back in 2019 off 149 but he doesn’t need it soft. His other course and distance win came off 142 on good and six of his nine career wins have come on nice ground.
The last time he raced off a mark close to 135 over hurdles he was beat a neck at the 2019 Festival. He loves it at Cheltenham and you would think that this race is a target given how he has been campaigned this season. Now, it could well be that he is on the downgrade as an 11yo but that run here last November (five runs ago) wasn’t bad at all and if he could repeat that, he would surely challenge for a place today in this much weaker race. I won’t be having the mortgage on but at odds of 14/1, Tobefair is the each way selection.
Doncaster and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Tobefair e/w @ 14/1 (5 Places)
4.20 Doncaster – Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2)
The finale on ITV on Saturday is this 15 runner, 5f handicap. The one I like at a monster price is Zim Baby. Mick Appleby’s horses continue in good form and this horse shaped like a winner in waiting in a decent race at Pontefract off 89 on her penultimate start. She was less than a length behind Gale Force Maya (who was off 92) and she is now rated 98 after winning another handicap and then finishing 2nd in a Listed heat.
She wasn’t as good behind the same rival at Newmarket last time out and the handicapper dropped her 2lbs to 87. The daughter of Roderic O’Connor is still 7lbs above her last winning mark but she has proven more than once that she is capable of going close off her current rating. She was beat 0.5L at Pontefract off 90 in May, for example, and she was beat a nose of 89 at Ripon too. In November last year she was beat 2L by Dakota Gold in a Listed heat here over 6f (sft). She is now 7lbs better off with him yet she is nearly 5 times his price.
Zim Baby will appreciate the drop back to 5f today. The return to soft ground is another plus. Her form figures over 5f on ground with soft in the description read 012 and her career best run came in that Listed heat at this track over 6f. David Egan finished 3rd on his only previous ride on this filly and he has 5 wins and 16 top 4 finishes from just 32 rides for Mick Appleby. I think Zim Baby is a crazy price given her profile and at 25/1, she is the e/w NAP of the day.
