Dubois v Parker Betting Preview & Tips

On Saturday night in Riyadh fight fans will be treated to what must be one of the best cards in the history of the sport. Seven big time scraps with the Beterbiev v Bivol rematch at the top of the bill, but Dave Stevos’ two bets are going to be on the heavyweight contests. First up, we’ll have an in-depth look at what in our opinion is arguably the fight of the night, our Dubois v Parker betting preview is below.

Dubois v Parker – The Tale Of The Tape

*Weight for last fight

Daniel Dubois

Dynamite Daniel Dubois has come a long way since the most devastating night of his career in November 2020. That was the night he suffered his first defeat, but it wasn’t just the fact that he lost to Joe Joyce, it was the manner of the defeat that made it such a momentous night for Dubois. Suffering with a fractured eye socket, Dubois took a knee and basically quit. At the time, he was given dog’s abuse but in hindsight, he made the correct decision.

He has had to rebuild his career, and reputation, and his redemption was completed with an emphatic knockout win against Anthony Joshua. We landed a nice bet on the night and anyone that has read our boxing previews over the years will know I do not rate AJ highly as a boxer. However, it was a massive win for Dubois and he announced his arrival at the top of the heavyweight division.

Dubois is a come forward fighter who likes to pressure his opponents and his most lethal weapon is his right hand, though he can bang with his left too. He’ll be aiming to land a big punch on Parker’s chin early but the New Zealander is a far better technician than Joshua and he may not be quite as easy to hit. If Dynamite doesn’t detonate in the first four rounds, he could be in for a tricky night.

Joseph Parker

Like Daniel Dubois, Joe Joyce has played a big part in shaping Joseph Parker’s journey to this pivotal and lucrative fight. In September 2022 in Manchester, Parker suffered a brutal eleventh round knockout against Joyce and to most observers it seemed like the New Zealander’s career was only going in one direction, and it wasn’t up.

However, his coach Andy Lee implemented some key changes behind the scenes and now, Parker is riding the crest of a wave after beating two of the biggest punchers in boxing, Zhang and Wilder. The Wilder win was a comfortable unanimous decision win but he had to overcome two knockdowns against Zhang and he got the nod via majority decision.

Parker isn’t a huge puncher but he is technically sound and he is trained by one of the best in the business. He started fighting at ten years old, had 66 fights as an amateur and he won medals at the youth Olympics and World Championships, so he knows his way around a ring.

When he lost to Joshua, he avoided taking much punishment but didn’t do enough offensively. Andy Lee will be aiming to come up with a more balanced gameplan on Saturday night and if Parker can execute, he might be able to pull off the upset.

Dubois v Parker – The Verdict

So how will the fight unfold? There is a high probability that Dubois will try to follow the same blueprint that worked so well against Joshua. He’ll try to put it on Parker early, but will the New Zealander be as easy to hit or have as weak a chin as AJ?

Parker is a much more technically proficient fighter than Joshua and while he did hit the canvas twice against the big puncher Zhang, he was able to get back up and go on to win that fight. Obviously, he’ll be trying to avoid Dubois’ heavy hands but if he does get hit, he may be able to withstand his power better than AJ did.

Long night

The general consensus after the Joshua fight was that Dubois had finally arrived. The vast majority of ‘experts’ thought Joshua would win that night and we landed a nice winner by going against the grain. Many of those same experts are now predicting that Dubois will blast Parker out of there early but if Parker can navigate his way through the first four rounds, it could be a long night for the English fighter.

The setup in Dubois’ corner is another cause for concern. Against AJ, Dubois basically ignored Don Charles in his corner and was taking advice during the fight from his Dad in the crowd. Not ideal, and neither is the fact that Dubois’ camp have already been talking about a big fight with Usyk. Hopefully they have underestimated the threat posed by Parker just as much as the bookies have. We think Parker is a shade overpriced and we are backing the New Zealander to win at odds of 3.40.

Dubois v Parker Betting Tip: Joseph Parker to win @ 3.40 (Betfair Exchange)

Zhang v Kabayel

The other big heavyweight fight on the card sees the heavy hitting Chinese southpaw Zhilei Zhang take on the up and coming prospect, Agit Kabayel. The bookmakers have made the younger German fighter the odds on favourite but Zhang is no mug and there is every chance Kabayel may be biting off more than he can chew here.

He brings a 25-0 record into the fight and the biggest name on his record is Derek Chisora, who he beat via a close majority decision. Last time out he stopped the Cuban heavyweight Frankie Sanchez with a couple of cracking body shots and that will likely be his plan to take down Zhang.

Crushing Power

However, Kabayel doesn’t have a lot of previous experience fighting southpaws, especially southpaws that hit has hard as Zhang. The Chinese fighter lacks conditioning but he more than makes up for that with crushing power in both hands, as the likes of Joe Joyce, Deontay Wilder and even Joe Parker (who Zhang floored twice) will testify.

Zhang’s only two defeats have come when he was taken the distance by Hrgovic and Parker. 22 of his 27 wins have come by way of knockout and if he is going to win on Saturday, that is the most likely way he’ll do it. Maybe Kabayel will be able to withstand Zhang’s power and take it to the final bell but I think he might be in for a bit of a shock against the most powerful opponent he has faced so far. Back Zhang to win by KO/TKO/DQ at odds of 3.50.

Zhang v Kabayel Betting Tip: zhilei Zhang to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 3.40

-DaveStevos