European Championship Quarter Finals Preview

The action continues in Salzburg and last night was another solid one for James Punt’s followers. Over 9.5 180s was advised at 1.91 in the Aspinall Heta match and they hit 10. MVG also landed our -2.5 leg bets at 1.83. The last 8 contenders will be aiming to take home the top prize, check out James Punt’s European Championship Quarter Finals preview and tips below.

Danny Noppert vs. Nathan Aspinall

Our last remaining ante post selection, Nathan Aspinall, meets the in-form Danny Noppert. The Dutchman hit some very good form at the World Grand Prix and has carried that through into this weekend. He has hit ton plus averages in both his matches so far, dispatching Ratajski and Searle, two top class opponents with ease, dropping just six legs. Noppert is averaging 101.6 has hit a 170 checkout and is checking out at an excellent 61.5%.

Nathan Aspinall moved up a few gears last night, beating Damon Heta 10-6, averaging 100.9. He was pumped up afterwards and said he had finally got that buzz of playing in front of a big noisy crowd again. He is an energy player, and he needs to get his adrenaline flowing to bring out his best. His heavy scoring made an appearance in Gibraltar, and you could see him coming into form and he is almost back to his best. The doubling is a little off where it can be, but it is all starting to fall into place.

Asp Edges H2H

Their H2H record is 5-3 to Aspinall and he has been the better, more successful player in recent years. Noppert has been something of an underachiever, but he has taken a step up in terms of his self-confidence and this is allowing his talent to show itself.

This is a fascinating encounter. Two players hitting peak form, very closely matched in terms of their game. Noppert has played in four PDC quarter finals and won three. His only defeat was in the World Cup and that is a very different, very short format. Aspinall has played in more quarter finals but doesn’t have the same strike rate, playing in eleven and winning five. He has lost the last four, two in a deciding leg.

The market has Aspinall as the 1.83 favourite and Noppert 2.10. I can’t make either one favourite. I want Aspinall to win the tournament, but Noppert is a massive hill to climb. The value lies with Noppert, but it is fairly marginal and instead I will play in the side markets.

We got the 180’s bet up in the Aspinall vs. Heta match, narrowly, but it was Aspinall who hit the lions share with 7. He has hit 12 in 26 legs, a strike rate of 0.46 per leg. Noppert has hit 7 in 22 legs, a 0.31 per leg strike rate.

I expect this match to be a long one, it may well go to a decider. We should see over 10 maximums, plenty of legs played but picking the winner? Too hard.

European Championship Quarter Finals Tip: 2 points over 16.5 legs @ 1.75 with Boylesports and Ladbrokes

European Championship Quarter Finals Tip: 1 point over 9.5 180’s @ 2.00 generally available

Gerwyn Price vs. Michael van Gerwen

Van Gerwen was giving it the big ‘they are all scared of me again’ routine last night. Errrr, I don’t think so. It would take too long to list all the players who have beaten MVG this year but let’s just say it is long and explains why his win rate is back down around the 70% mark, and not over 90% when everyone was scared of him.

Their H2H record is 22-5 to Van Gerwen but of much more relevance is the more recent form. It took 20 matches before Price finally got his first win against Van Gerwen. He was his bogeyman, but since that first win, it is 4-4 and Price has won three of the last four. This weekend Price is averaging 103 to MVG’s 99 and checking out at 53% to MVG’s 45%. Price has won the World Championship, two euro tour titles and two players championship titles in 2021. Van Gerwen has won the World Series finals, a glorified, non-ranking exhibition event. Price is the big beast these days, not MVG.

The market has Price as the 1.80 favourite and Van Gerwen 2.10.

The last two matches have both been won by Price in the deciding leg. In their last fourteen matches, eight have gone to a deciding leg, and there have plenty of other very close ones. Price just has the greater confidence and mental strength these days and MVG has lost the knack of doing the right thing at the right time.

The odds look about right and again the side markets may offer a better bet.

European Championship Quarter Finals Tip: 1 point over 17.5 legs @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes

Rob Cross vs. Jose de Sousa

De Sousa survived his match with Luke Humphries yesterday. It was an extraordinary match with Humphries hitting De Sousa with huge checkouts, but ironically when faced with the simple ones, he couldn’t find the doubles. He missed two 170’s on the wire and it was a win which slipped through his fingers. De Sousa hung on and played well if not classic De Sousa. He isn’t 100% fit yet but he is getting back to form.

Rob Cross finally won back-to-back matches when beating a slightly disappointing Brendan Dolan 10-4. Cross averaged 97 and deserved his win. The question is, can he keep it up? It has been a while since he had a good run in a tournament. He reached the semi-final of PC 15 in June and lost that 2-7 to Jose de Sousa. It is over a year since he had a good run on TV, losing the 2020 World Cup final and shortly before that losing the final of the World Series.

De Sousa Dominant

Their H2H record is 3-1 to De Sousa with one draw and Cross has not beaten De Sousa since February 2019. They have met just once on TV, and that was a draw in the Premier League in April.

Both players have been a bit flakey recently. De Sousa due to his muscle problems after a Covid jab and Cross has been suffering with a lack of confidence. You do you trust to play to their A game today?

The betting markets have De Sousa at 1.62 favourite and Cross at 2.50. This is a good chance for Cross to finally get another win over De Sousa, move back into the top 20 and on the cusp of the top 16. He is under a fair bit of pressure in other words.

I can’t back De Sousa at those odds given that he is under par at the moment, but Can I trust Cross to string another good performance together? No. No bet.

Mensur Suljovic vs. Joe Cullen

Mensur needed the crowds help to get him over the line against Florian Hempel last night. He struggled to a 10-9 win, averaging 93.0. Cullen beat young Willie Borland 10-5, averaging 89.2 and neither player inspires much confidence here. Suljovic has 5-3 H2H record over Cullen.

Cullen recently lost his mother and says that darts just doesn’t matter to him at the moment. Suljovic is returning after a long lay off and has yet to regain any sort of consistency. Suljovic has the crowd on his side which helped him last night, but he still struggled.

Neither player inspires much confidence but there is one bet which makes some appeal. Cullen has been hitting a lot of 180’s so far 10 from 21 legs, a rate of 0.47 per leg. Suljovic has only hit 5 from 27 legs, 0.18 per leg. Cullen is a prolific 180 hitter, ranked seventh for 180’s hit in the last 12 months. Over the last 12 months Cullen is ranked fourth for 180’s per leg, Suljovic doesn’t make the top 30.

European Championship Quarter Finals Tip: 2 points Joe Cullen to have the most 180’s -1.5 handicap @ 1.96 with Unibet

-JamesPunt