European Championship Semi Finals Preview

Well, what an afternoon that was for James Punt’s followers. The main man advised four bets at 1.75, 2.00, 2.50 and 1.96 and they ALL won. And what’s more, our 28.00 ante-post selection Nathan Aspinall is into the semis too. Hopefully he goes all the way, check out James Punt’s European Championship Semi Finals tips and preview below.

Michael van Gerwen vs. Nathan Aspinall

The two winners from two outrageous quarter finals. First up was Nathan Aspinall who was taken to the absolute wire by Danny Noppert. The Asp won 10-9 with a 103.3 average and hitting a European Championship record equally eleven 180’s. It was that part of his game that won it for him. Doubles win matches, but 180’s get you to the opportunity a lot quicker.

Van Gerwen just about overcame Gerwyn Price in an even better match. One of the all-time great matches as the two went toe to toe and it was just a slight dip in performance at the crucial moment which cost Price the match. MVG ended up with a 108.7 average. Price 107.5.

The H2H record between MVG and Aspinall is 7-5 to Van Gerwen with one premier league draw. Really quite close and Aspinall is a player who Van Gerwen has struggled with at times. They have played three times in 2021 and it is 1-1-1, and 25-23 in total legs won to MVG. In terms of playing in major championships, Van Gerwen has won all three of their previous meetings.

Phenomenal Record MVG

Michael van Gerwen’s record in televised semi-final is, as he would say, phenomenal. He has played in 70 and won 58. He had a run of 28 consecutive winning semi-finals in his pomp but there is some hope for Aspinall. MVG has lost his last three TV semi-finals and four of his last eight. Aspinall’s TV semi-final record is played six, won three.

Recent form sees eight wins from ten for Van Gerwen and six from ten for Aspinall, but both have been scoring very well recently.

Michael van Gerwen is the hot favourite thanks to his record in the big events on TV. Overall, there is not that much between them, and we might expect Aspinall to be a 2.50 outsider, but the market sees him as the 3.25 outsider. There is some value in those odds but as we have backed him at 29.00 for the tournament there is no need to get involved in the outright betting.

180 Machine

Aspinall has been magnificent on the 180’s this weekend. He has hit 24 from 45 legs, that’s 0.53 per leg. He says he has fitted slightly longer points and it has really improved his maximum hitting. MVG has hit 13 from 40 legs, 0.32 per leg. That is better than his seasonal rate, while Aspinall’s is twice as good.

The 180’s markets have been profitable this weekend and it seems the more interesting market once again. Aspinall is the 1.55 favourite to hit the most 180’s which looks a touch generous if anything. This is a best of 21 leg format and the bookies expect the match to last around 18-19 legs. That might be a touch high so I will say 17 to be conservative. If both players are shy of their current rate, I would think 10 180’s is not unreasonable, if they can keep close to their tournament level, 13-14 is possible.

European Championship Semi Finals Tips: 1 point over 11.5 180’s @ 2.40 with Unibet

Aspinall hit eleven this afternoon and we can’t expect him to equal the record twice in a day but six or seven looks realistic and odds against is acceptable.

European Championship Semi Finals Tips: 1 point Aspinall to hit over 6.5 180’s @ 2.25 with Unibet

Rob Cross vs. Joe Cullen

You have to think that the winner of the tournament will be the winner of the other semi-final. Rob Cross beat Jose de Sousa 10-5 but De Sousa was poor. Poor but still averaged more than Cross who was weak on the doubles and if he would have been under any sort of pressure, I doubt Cross could have won it. Cross hasn’t faced any serious opposition all week and has wandered into a major semi-final.

Joe Cullen beat Mensur Suljovic 10-7 but here it was Suljovic who was poor, averaging just 90 and it was only close because Cullen wasn’t doubling at all well and he kept on letting him back in.

The H2H stats are quite interesting. Cullen leads 7-5 overall, he has won the last four and on TV matches, 4-1.

I get the feeling that Cullen might suddenly catch fire. He will suddenly realise he could win a major so soon after the passing of his mum and use that emotional energy to lift his game. When he is good, he is very good. He hit seven maximums this afternoon (landing our bet), and it is a strong part of his game which will earn him opportunities. He had the crowd against him this afternoon and this will be a more level playing field in that respect.

European Championship Semi Finals Tips: 2 points Joe Cullen to win @ 1.90 with SpreadEx

That is it from me this weekend. Good luck Nathan Aspinall.

-JamesPunt