Friday Evening PDC World Championship Preview

James Punt has already penned outright winner and side market previews. He landed another nice winner this afternoon, Krcmar to win 3-0 at 2.40. His Friday Evening PDC World Championship tips are below.

Rowby-John Rodriguez vs. Lourence Ilagan

Ilagan is another of the Asian Championship qualifiers and he is making his 6th World Championship appearance. He is yet to win a match as is the case in his six appearances in the World Cup of Darts. His 2022 seasonal average is 84.7. He has played for the last four years in a row and lost 1-3, 2-3,1-3 and 0-3 to Barney last year. He isn’t an improving player, and we should expect a mid-80’s average, but he has enough talent to get a set on the board and maybe more.

Off Oche Issues

Rowby-John is another player who has off the oche problems. His daughter has not been well and as a result, his form has been affected and very inconsistent of late. There is decent money on offer just for qualifying for these major events, so he will turn up as a bare minimum, but his motivation is an unknown.

He was clearly keen to get home sharpish at the recent Players Championship finals when he lost 2-6 to Joe Cullen and averaged just 78.4. That was after a 76.1 in the Grand Slam qualifier. His last two matches have seen his lowest averages in the last 12 months. Clearly something was not right and if that remains the case, then he is likely to lose.

Rowby-John has said that his daughter is much better now and that should allow him to play more like his regular self, and that should be good enough to beat Ilagan. He is the 1.30 favourite and Ilagan has drifted out to 4.00. Ilagan does have a good A game and while he has lost all his last 96 stage matches here, he has only been whitewashed once. I’ll have a small bet on a 3-1 win for the Austrian.

Friday Evening PDC World Championship Tip: 0.5 point Rowby-John Rodriguez to win 3-1 @ 3.60 with SpreadEx

William O’Connor vs. Beau Greaves

Perhaps the most interesting first round match of the championship. O’Connor is a very experienced player with 11 years on the pro tour. This will be his sixth World Championship appearance and he has played 11 matches, winning 6. He has played four last 96 round matches and won them all.

His recent form is a bit confusing. He has won five of his last ten but lost four of his last five. He has been playing some good stuff, like beating Peter Wright 6-3 in PC29 and averaging 103. The Magpie had a 108 average when beating Dimitri van den Bergh 6-1 in PC27.

However, he is not playing with great consistency and in his last ten matches, he has hit two ton plus averages, but three sub-90s. If he throws a sub 90, he is in bother, if he throws a mid-90’s he could be in bother and it could be that he needs his A-game to be competitive.

New Sensation

Beau Greaves, the 18 year old darting sensation has made Women’s darts all her own.  There is not enough talent in depth to give her much in the way of competition at that level and it will be interesting to see how far she can go against the men.

Her seasonal average may only be 84.5 but that does not reflect her A game. It reflects that she can comfortably win matches in the Women’s tournaments without getting out of first gear, but when she does get pushed, she has the gears to move up to a very high level. Big ton plus averages, big three figure checkouts, the works.

This will be her highest profile match in a short career, and we don’t know just how she will react to playing on the biggest stage in the sport, in front of the TV cameras and some 2-3000 people in the room. If she can relax and enjoy the experience, then we should see her play well.

The market makes O’Connor the 1.44 favourite and Greaves 3.00

Friday Evening PDC World Championship Tip: 1 point Beau Greaves to win @ 3.00 with Betvictor

Keegan Brown vs. Florian Hempel

Keegan Brown was an unlikely winner of a players championship title back in August, but since then he has won just three matches from thirteen and is on a run of six consecutive defeats. Brown has played in six previous world championships. He has played two last 96 stage matches and won both 3-0. He is fighting to retain his tour card and really needs a win.

Hempel recently won the German Super league to earn his place here. He made his debut last year and beat Martin Schindler and Dimitri van den Bergh, before losing in the third round. He has won seven of his last ten matches and at pro tour level five of his last ten. Florian took some big scalps when he first hit the scene last year, but he has lost a bit of his swagger over the last 12 months. Perhaps winning the super league will bring that back.

These two have met twice before and it is 1-1. Brown won their only 2022 match 6-0 in March. It is hard to fancy Brown given his poor recent form but is there enough value in Hempel’s odds of 1.73? Just about.

Friday Evening PDC World Championship Tip: 1 point Florian Hempel to win @ 1.73 generally available

Michael Smith vs. Nathan Rafferty

First sight of our outright selection to win the tournament. Michael Smith is the hot favourite at 1.15 and Nathan the 6.50 outsider.

Rafferty landed our bet for him to beat Jermaine Wattimena last night and he’ll be feeling good about getting a win on the Ally Pally stage on his debut. He will make for a dangerous opponent for Smith. We didn’t see anything like his best from Rafferty last night and he should be looking forward to getting back on that stage and being under no pressure. The pressure will all be on Smith.

Smith has won seven of his last ten matches and after his early exit from the Players Championship finals, he will have had time to enjoy the fact that he has won his first TV major a few weeks ago. He will need to make sure he is ready to go from the first dart tonight as Rafferty has the game to take advantage of any sloppiness. Smith’s record at this second-round stage is mixed. Of his eleven last 64 round matches he has won seven but lost at this stage in 2021 and 2020.

Smith Dominant H2H

The H2H record is 3-0 to Smith, all floor matches with a cumulative score of 18-8. Bully Boy is the 1.17 favourite which is a bit on the short side, but we have a few eggs in the Smith basket and while this might have to be watched from behind the sofa, hopefully he can move forward. Rafferty will be hoping to show what he can do, and he has the talent to bother Smith.

Of his seven last 64 stage match wins here, Smith has only had one whitewash and that was against Ron Meulenkamp last year. There does look to be a bit of value in the handicap betting market. Young Rafferty is 1.73 getting a +2.5 set handicap. Smith is likely to be the more nervous of the two and I’ll take The Natural to get a set on the scoreboard.

Friday Evening PDC World Championship Tip: 1 point Nathan Rafferty to win +2.5 sets @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt