Friday ITV Racing Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos
Friday ITV Racing Tips From Exeter and Musselburgh
We got back on track with a nice winner and a place on the final day at Leopardstown. Millen To One survived a scare at the second last to win well, advised e/w at 9/1 NB. Minella Melody proved no match for Concertista but she grabbed place money at 10s. Rockpoint never figured and likely needed it. Latest Exhibition went down fighting and ran a cracker in 2nd behind Monkfish. Azzerti was disappointing, as was Champagne Court. Finnegan’s Garden paid the price for chasing the early pace and faded into 4th. With Cheltenham abandoned the action comes from Exeter and Musselburgh on New Year’s Day. Check out Dave Stevos’ Friday ITV racing tips below…
1.20 Musselburgh: Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
The class horse in this race is Navajo Pass and he could be hard to beat. Donald McCain’s son of Nathaniel ran a massive race at 50s in the Triumph Last season. He finished 4th, just over 4L behind the winner and in close proximity to both Aspire Tower and Allmankind. Those two horses are now rated in the mid-150s and Navajo Pass is in off 142 today. Yes, he carries top weight but Theo Gillard takes off 7lb. So, he is effectively racing off just 135.
That looks a very workable mark on his Cheltenham run. Also, this is much easier than the last two races he contested at Aintree. Good to soft ground suited him well on the flat and he will enjoy the conditions at Musselburgh. A Grade 2 winner on soft at Doncaster last season, Navajo Pass clearly has loads of ability. The way he stayed on at Cheltenham suggests that 20f should be within his range, especially on a flat track like Musselburgh. Theo Gillard is 7/42 with 16 top 4s for McCain this season and at odds of 10/1 hopefully he steers Navajo Pass into the money.
Friday ITV Racing Tips: Navajo Pass e/w @ 10/1 NB
Friday ITV racing tips – 1.40 Exeter: Handicap Chase (Class 3)
The ground is heavy at Exeter and it is always tough going around there in those conditions. The opening live ITV race is an 18.5f handicap hurdle for the mares and 9 will go to post. The one I’ll be taking a chance on at big odds is Kingsmill Gin for Jackie Du Plessis and James Best. This mare is out of the weights but she has shown enough form to suggest that she can be competitive off a mark of 99. It is still early days for the daughter of Fair Mix as she is having just her 3rd handicap run.
She shaped nicely enough on her 2nd handicap start at Wincanton when 4th of 17 off 95 behind Kestrel Valley. The fact that she ran a decent race in a 23f novice on heavy at this track back in January last year is another plus. Du Plessis does better at Exeter than any other track with 8 winners from 118 runners and 35 top 4 finishes. If this mare can repeat the form of her Taunton novice hurdle 3rd it could be enough to see her competitive today and at odds of 22/1 she is worth backing each way for small stakes.
Exeter Friday Tip: Kingsmill Gin e/w @ 22/1 (4 Places Skybet)
1.55 Musselburgh: Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Eleven hurdlers will fight it out for the £15k first prize in this 15.5f handicap hurdle. It could be worth siding with Caius Marcius in this open looking contest. Trained by Nicky Richards, this 10yo son of King’s Theatre ran some nice races in defeat during the summer. He was placed off 140 at Market Rasen and then went even closer when 2nd off 141 at Southwell. The handicapper has dropped him back to a rating of 137 after a couple of below par efforts at Ascot, when the ground was far too soft for him, and at Doncaster last time out.
Talented claimer Danny McMenamin takes off 3lb so Caius Marcius is effectively in off 134, 7lb lower than when beat 4L at Southwell. McMenamin has 15 wins from 87 rides for Nicky Richards with a further 40 top 4s. This fella was going well when he fell at the 3rd last on his only previous run at Musselburgh and once the rain stays away he could run a big race at odds of 12/1.
Friday ITV Racing Tips: Caius Marcius e/w @ 12/1 (4 Places W Hill)
Friday ITV Racing Tips – 2.05 Exeter: Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Next up is a 19f handicap chase for Novices and 7 will line up at the start. Off a mark of 129 and with Jack Tudor claiming 3lbs, Limited Reserve could be tough to beat. He has struggled on both his chase starts this season, including when beat a long way over C&D last time out. However, the return to very testing ground is firmly in his favour. Christian Williams’ charge has had four runs on heavy ground during his career and they produced form figures of 1111.
I am hoping that the first time cheekpieces will aid him in the jumping department as he will need to be better over his fences than he was the last twice. His trainer is starting to hit form and his four runners over the Festive period produced form figures of 2113. He is just 2lb higher than his last winning hurdling mark and if the cheekpieces do the trick he is capable of going very close on ground he loves at odds of 6/1.
Friday ITV Racing Tips: Limited Reserve e/w @ 6/1 (3 places Betfred)
2.37 Tramore: Savills New Year’s Day Chase (Grade 3)
As an added bonus we get to watch the Gold Cup winner make his return at Tramore. Willie Mullins is sticking to the same game plan that worked with Al Boum Photo in the last two seasons and heads South for this 21f Grade 3. After watching how tough a race some of his likely rivals in March had at Leopardstown, it could prove to be a wise decision. Mullins runs three in this race and it has the look of a glorified schooling session. With a rating of 175 Al Boum Photo is top rated by 19lb and this looks even less competitive than the race he won last season.
Mullins will be hoping for a 1-2-3 with last year’s runner up Acapella Bourgeois and Brahma Bull. However, at the odds it might be worth taking a chance on Djingle to nick second. He fell last time over 16f but he will be suited by returning to this distance. The locally trained runner has finished 1st and 2nd on his last two starts at beyond 2 miles and soft ground is fine for him. Yes, he has a bit to find on the figures with Brahma Bull and Acapella Bourgeois but he is just an 8yo while they are 10yo and 11yo respectively. Al Boum Photo should win but at 33s hopefully Djingle can nick 2nd. He will also be worth a look in the ‘Without the fav’ market when that is formed.
Tramore Friday Tips: Djingle e/w @ 33/1
Friday ITV racing tips – 2.50 Exeter: Handicap Chase (Class 3)
The 3 mile trip will take a fair bit of getting on the heavy ground at Exeter in this 8 runner handicap chase. The one I like is Dancing Shadow for Victor Dartnall and James Best. This horse is an Exeter regular and his last win came at the track in a Novice hurdle in Nov 2017. Now a 12yo, he still showed plenty of enthusiasm when a solid 3rd over 30f at this track last time out. He was only beat a length off 122 and he is in off just 1lb higher today.
This old boy has won over 4 miles 1 furlong so clearly stamina is his strong suit. He is now 9lb lower than his highest winning mark and he arrives here on the back of two excellent efforts. Dancing Shadow was beat just 2L over C&D in Nov 2019 on soft and his form figures on heavy read 2224. Hopefully James Best can poach an early lead and if he does, this lad can make a bold bid at odds of 11/1.
Friday ITV Racing Tips: Dancing Shadow e/w @ 11/1
3.05 Musselburgh: ‘Auld Reekie’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The trip is 20.5f for the final live race of the day on ITV. 11 will go to post for this handicap chase and it is wide open. The one I like is Fanzio for Richard Hobson and Paul O’Brien. This 6yo son of Day Flight has travelled nearly 350 miles from Gloucestershire for this race. His last three runs on good to soft ground have been excellent (211) and he is just 1lb higher than when beat 0.5L at Taunton on his last outing in December.
His trainer Richard Hobson doesn’t have many runners at Musselburgh but when he does, they usually go well. He has had 6 horses try their luck here in the past, producing 1 winner and 3 places. The track looks ideal for Fanzio, as does the ground and the trip and at just 6yo there could be more to come from him. I think the near 700 mile round trip could be worthwhile for Hobson and his team and at odds of 9/1 Fanzio is the e/w NAP of the day.
