Friday ITV3 Racing Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos
Friday ITV3 Racing Tips: York, Newmarket and Chepstow
We struggled on Saturday but at least Gold Trip ran well in the Arc. I thought he was going to win 200m out but his effort flattened in the final 50m. He still grabbed place money in 4th for us at 50/1. Last week the weather played a big role with Ascot falling victim to the rain. It shouldn’t be as bad on Friday, but the ground is likely to remain soft. Dave Stevos has previewed all live races at York, Newmarket and Chepstow. Check out his Friday ITV3 Racing Tips below…
York Friday: 1.35pm – Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)
This race was initially scheduled for Saturday at Ascot. I thought Highland Chief was worth backing each way, but unfortunately only 4 run in this rescheduled race. However, given that conditions will suit him again, I am going to keep the faith. Logician does look the most likely winner but soft ground is an unknown for last year’s St Leger winner.
Highland Chief, on the other hand, has a 100% record from his two starts on soft ground. He won a maiden at Newbury and a handicap at Royal Ascot off 101. His best run since that win at Ascot came here on good ground when he chased home Pyledriver. That was a fine effort and a repeat today of that form could give Logician lots to think about. At odds of 7/1, a small win bet on Highland Chief is advised.
Friday ITV3 Racing Tips: Highland Chief win @ 7/1
Newmarket Friday: 1.50pm – Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)
A field of 11 juvenile sprinters go to post for this 5f Group 3. We backed First Edition at big odds last time at Newbury and he just missed out on a place in 4th. This son of Invincible Spirit went from the front in that 6f contest and it looked like he didn’t quite get home. It was still a fine effort in Group 2 company and he will be suited by the drop back to 5f. However, soft ground and the form of the Clive Cox yard are off putting.
The one that looks massively overpriced in comparison to a couple of these is First Company. He was sent off at 250/1 last time in the Harry Rosebery at Ayr (5f gd/sft). He belied those odds with a cracking effort, finishing right on the coat tails of Winter Power and Nomadic Empire. Declan Carroll’s charge has been written off by the bookies again today, chalked up at odds of 50/1. Winter Power and Nomadic Empire are 14s and 18s respectively. If the Carroll horse improves again he could go well and First Company is the each way pick at 50s.
Friday ITV3 Racing Tips: First Company e/w @ 50/1
York Friday: 2.05pm – Betsafe Handicap (Class 2)
When I first looked at this race earlier in the week Ouzo stood out at around 16/1. Richard Hannon’s charge has dropped back to a tempting mark and he likes an ease in the ground. The son of Charm Spirit ran a cracker in a big C&D handicap back in August when 3L behind Montatham off 95. Back at the same track off 3lb lower he holds serious claims. However, 16s is long gone now and he is much shorter.
One that looks potentially overpriced at 28/1 is Young Fire for Gray and O’Meara. This 5yo son of Fuisse hosed up over 7f on soft at Haydock two runs back. Okay, he finished 10th next time out at Ayr in the Gold Cup but that was over 6f and he was only beat 4L. The way he was powering clear over 7f at Haydock suggested that going up in trip would make sense but given the pot on offer at Ayr, you can’t blame connections for having a go. Now he does step back up to a mile and with ground to suit, Young Fire represents each way value at odds of 28/1.
Friday ITV3 Racing Tips: Young Fire e/w @ 28/1 (6 Places)
Friday ITV3 Racing: 2.25pm – Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3)
The fillies take centre stage in this 2yo Group 3. 7f is the trip and a field of 10 will line up in the stalls. With a rating of just 81, Quiet Assassin looks up against it here. However, unlike a couple of the principals she has winning form on soft ground and that could be the key to her. Her debut win came over 7.5f on soft ground at Beverley. She looked like she needed every inch of the trip that day and she was kept to 7f on her next outing at Doncaster in a Listed heat.
She ran better than the distance beaten/finishing position suggests at Doncaster on ground probably quick enough for her. Last time out at Ayr she ran over 6f in a G3 and again, she wasn’t disgraced in 7th. She has a bit to find with Mamba Wamba on that effort but she could get closer now returned to a more suitable distance and soft ground. Hopefully the more aggressive tactics used for her win are utilised by Silvestre De Sousa and if they are, she could outrun her odds of 50/1.
Friday ITV3 Racing Tips: Quiet Assassin e/w @ 50/1
Friday ITV3 Racing: 2.40pm – Betsafe Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
There is a nice pot of £75k up for grabs in this 14f handicap and 11 stayers will battle it out for a share of the spoils. The one I am interested in here is Bronze River for Andrew Balding and Duran Fentiman. This horse has been expensive to follow, as we found out when we backed him at Royal Ascot (10f sft). While he is hard to win with, he has run consistently well and he does enjoy getting his toe in. It was soft that day we were on at Ascot and he looked like he would benefit from further.
He ran very well at Ayr last time out over 15f, just weakening in the final furlong. This 14f trip could well be ideal and the return to soft ground is a plus too. The booking of Duran Fentiman is another positive. He has an eye-catching record when riding for Balding. From just 8 rides he has 2 wins, 2 thirds and a fourth. Fentiman is a very underrated jockey and at odds of 25/1 hopefully he can steer Bronze River into the money.
Friday ITV3 Racing Tips: Bronze River e/w @ 25/1 NB
Newmarket Friday: 3.00pm – Godolphin Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
Namos is a horse who has yet to show his true ability on these shores. The 4yo son of Medicean is prolific on home turf but as of yet, he has failed to reproduce his form in the UK. So far, he has had just a couple of runs in Britain. He was well beat in the G1 July Cup over 6f here on good ground but he lost a shoe and could never land a blow. He ran better at Newbury in a G2 on his next start on slightly softer ground, even if he was well behind the emphatic winner Dream Of Dreams in 4th.
Namos did finish in front of Glorious Journey that day though, getting 3lb. On these terms the Appleby horse should reverse that form, but this softer ground should suit the German colt better. He is double the odds of Glorious Journey at 10/1 and I think that is far too big. With Ryan Moore booked and conditions to suit, Namos could run a huge race here and he is the e/w pick.
Friday ITV3 Racing Tips: Namos e/w @ 10/1
Chepstow 3.15pm – Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Listed)
The next live race on ITV3 is a Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle. If you needed any more notice that winter is imminently approaching, this is it. Seven talented types will battle it out for this 19.5f contest and McFabulous is odds on for Nicholls and Cobden. A 21f Grade 3 handicap winner last season, he drops back in trip for his seasonal return. A course winner in a bumper on his debut, this son of Milan is clearly talented and with a rating of 145 he should win this. However, the drop in trip raises slight doubts and he will surely have bigger prizes on the agenda later in the season.
One For The Team is next best in the betting and is a horse I rate. However, he is an out and out stayer and this trip could be on the sharp side on his seasonal return. He could progress into a Graded stayer this season though and he is worth following in the future. At the prices, the unbeaten Petrastar could go well.
Trained by DJ Jeffries, this son of Passing Glance is unbeaten after 3 starts over timber. Those three novice wins came by a combined distance of 38L and he has left his flat form well behind. In fairness, he was rated 78 in that sphere so he wasn’t useless. However, the switch to hurdling has really suited him. This is clearly a huge step up in class but this fella is proven at the trip, will handle the ground and if he was trained by Nicholls, Henderson or Tizzard he would not be 20/1. Petrastar is the each way selection.
Persian War Hurdle Tip: Petrastar e/w @ 20/1
Newmarket Friday: 3.35pm – Bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)
The feature race on Friday’s card at Newmarket is the G1 Fillies’ Mile. The one I like at big odds in this is Mother Earth for Aidan O’Brien and William Buick. This filly looks the 2nd or 3rd string for Ballydoyle on jockey bookings, but you can never read too much into those when Ballydoyle and the Coolmore mob are involved. This filly filled 3rd spot behind Shale and Pretty Gorgeous on soft ground at the Curragh and with a clear run she would have finished a lot closer than the 5L she was beat.
She was probably travelling best of all on the inner between the 2f and 1f poles in that contest. However, Seamie Heffernan decided drastic action was needed and switched her out wide, losing all momentum. She stayed on well for 3rd but the leaders had flown. Last time on good ground she struggled but this daughter of Zoffany is best with an ease. Over this trip she could get a lot closer to both of her Curragh conquerors and at 25/1, I’ll be on each way.
Friday ITV3 Racing Tips: Mother Earth e/w @ 25/1 (4 Places)
Newmarket Friday: 4.10pm – Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Class 2)
The finale on ITV3 on Friday is the 12f Old Rowley Cup for 3yos. 17 are due to go to post and you could nearly make some sort of case for all of them. The one I am interested in off a mark of 99 is Tritonic. Alan King trains this son of Sea The Moon and on his form behind Highland Chief at Ascot he looks well treated. That was his last start on properly soft ground and today’s conditions should really suit him.
That run behind Highland Chief at Ascot (10f) was a career best and he ran respectably in a G2 on his only other start on soft. If the ground dries out slightly it shouldn’t inconvenience him as he has run well on good to soft and good too. Tom Marquand looks an excellent booking and he has 14 wins and 44 Top 4 finishes from 109 rides for King. He could enhance that fine record at Newmarket this afternoon and at 20/1 Tritonic is the e/w NAP of the day.
