Friday Newmarket July Festival Tips – DS
Friday Newmarket July Festival Tips
Thursday looked like being a complete write off, but Lil Guff saved our bacon. She ran another great race, just missing out on 5th but landing e/w money at 50s in 6th. Green Team wasn’t suited by how the race was run. Waiting All Night ran okay, he probably needs a stronger gallop to aim at. Check out Dave Stevos’ Friday Newmarket July Festival tips and preview below.
1.50 – Bet365 Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Just 12 will go to post for this 3yo heritage handicap. New London currently heads the market for Appleby and Buick. The son of Dubawi is 2/3 so far and he chased Changingoftheguard home at Chester (12f sft) last time. The return to better ground and drop in distance should suit and he is an obvious contender off a mark of 99.
Of those at bigger odds, Phantom Flight makes some appeal off a mark of 95. Trained by James Horton for the Dances, this horse has progressed with every run. A narrow defeat at Newcastle on debut was followed by a Novice win at Redcar (10f gd/sft) and another Novice win under a penalty at Haydock (8f gd). He was due to run in the 3yo 10f handicap at Ascot but got upset in the stalls and was withdrawn.
I am hoping that was a once off due to the massive occasion. The prelims won’t be quite as stressful tomorrow and that should help him to relax mentally. Phantom Flight’s dam relished fast ground so these conditions could see him improve again. Aeonian, 1.25L behind him at Redcar has since run well in a handicap off 92. The runner up at Redcar hacked up next time out in another Novice by over 5L. On pedigree this trip should suit and at 16/1, Phantom Flight is the e/w selection.
Friday Newmarket July Festival Tips: Phantom Flight e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
2.25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
Nothing jumped out in the 2.05 at York so we’ll move swiftly on. At Newmarket this 6f Group 2 is next up and six go to post. Maylandsea ran well at Royal Ascot and she sets a clear form standard. By leading first season sire Havana Grey, Michael Bell’s inmate would be hard to beat if replicating that effort but this is a very different race. Whether she’ll be as well suited by this small field remains to be seen and at the odds, I am taking her on.
Rod Millman has his horses in serious fettle and Tagline represents him here. Derby winning pilot Richard Kingscote is on board, just as he was at Newmarket last time. In that Listed heat won by Lezoo, Kingscote dropped Tagline out. The winner got a run just ahead of her and while it is hard to see her turning that form around, she finished best of all and just failed for 2nd. She was flattered by her proximity to the winner but she gave the impression that there could be lots more improvement to come.
When she won over 5f the daughter of Havana Grey raced prominently. I’d imagine they rode her to get the trip at Newmarket and she proved she got it. I think more aggressive tactics may be employed today and if they are, I can see Tagline finishing a lot closer to Lezoo. She is 5/2 and Tagline is 20/1. At those prices, Tagline is worth backing e/w.
Friday Newmarket July Festival Tips: Tagline e/w @ 20/1
2.40 York – Summer Stakes (Group 3)
A decent sized field of a dozen for this Group 3 for the fillies and mares. It looks a good race for e/w players and at nice odds, perhaps Adaay To Remember can run into the money for Patrick Owens. This filly is officially rated 97 and I think that underestimates her. She ran a cracker over today’s C&D in a very competitive handicap last time out off that mark and she was only beat 1.25L by Asjad. It was an excellent effort on her first start back and she should come on bundles.
The form that makes her of real interest here came last season at Newmarket. In July she was beat just 2.75L over 6f by the 107 rated Summerghand. She was a head behind the 110 rated Tabdeed and behind her in 4th was the 108 rated Mums Tipple. Yes, she was in receipt of a sex/age allowance but even so, it was a superb effort.
She ran in another Listed race restricted to her own sex next time and went even closer. This time she was beat a neck into 3rd with the re-opposing Gale Force Maya narrowly in front of her. Good to firm ground is fine, she ran a cracker on this track last time and I’d imagine this race has been the plan. At odds of 20/1, Adaay To Remember is the e/w selection.
Friday Newmarket July Festival Tips: Adaay To Remember e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP
3.00 – Bet365 Trophy Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
A tricky handicap with 16 runners and a case can be made for plenty. 14f is the trip and of the fancied horses, Contact makes most appeal. David Barron’s charge lost no caste in defeat at Ascot and this step up in distance will suit on the evidence of that run. The handicapper left him at 96 after that run and he has the potential to rate higher than that in the future. Odds of 7/1 look more than fair and if you fancy him, I couldn’t put you off.
He’s too short for the blog though and at bigger odds, Sam Cooke could go well. Trained by Ralph Beckett, Rob Hornby takes the ride. He ran in this race in 2020, his sole try at 14f. He didn’t get home on the soft ground but he wasn’t disgraced in 5th, beat 4.75L off 92. The son of Pour Moi is fine over 12f on soft but hopefully, 14f will be okay for him in quicker conditions.
His last win came at York on good to firm last August, his only start on that sort of surface. That came off 89 and he then ran two crackers off 94 (2nd) and 96 (3rd). His seasonal comeback was needed and last time he showed signs of coming to hand over 13f at Ayr, staying on nicely. Dark Jedi won that, beating Sam Cooke by 3.5L and the Beckett horse is now 4lbs better off. Hopefully Hornby can get him settled early and if he does, he could reward e/w backers at 20/1.
Friday Newmarket July Festival Tips: Sam Cooke e/w @ 20/1 (6 Places) NB
3.35 – Falmouth Stakes (Group 1)
Inspiral is the headline act in this year’s Falmouth Stakes. Not even Frankie could get this filly beat at Royal Ascot. She absolutely hosed up in that G1, her second win at the top table. She is now 5/5 and she has scared away lots of the opposition. The daughter of Frankel gets weight from her older rivals and both Sandrine and Prosperous Voyage will need to produce huge career bests if either of them are to trouble the Gosden jolly.
The one horse in this field who has already shown she is capable of running to 120 or so is Primo Bacio. Long term followers will remember this filly hacking up for us at York last season. She went on to run huge races subsequently when 5th in this race (beat 1.5L), finishing just 0.5L behind the classy Lady Bowthorpe. After that stellar effort her form tailed off. Ed Walker decided to run on soft next time in Deauville and while she was only beat 2L, the race seemed to leave a mark on her.
Her next three runs were poor but I gave her one more chance last time at Ascot. She just missed out on place money in 3rd, 3L behind Saffron Beach, but it marked a welcome return to form. That should have given her a big confidence boost and if she builds on it, she should be capable of chasing Inspiral home. Maybe she’ll never hit the heights that I though she would, but she is an extremely talented filly with a smart turn of foot and hopefully she can pull off the upset.
