Friday Night 2023 PDC World Championship Tips – JP
Friday Night 2023 PDC World Championship Preview
Gabriel Clemens got the job done for us earlier at the Ally Pally. A last gasp Cullen 180 landed us the double in his 4-1 defeat to Micheal Smith, our outright winner selection. James Punt is hitting top form. Check out his Friday Night 2023 PDC World Championship tips below.
Rob Cross vs. Chris Dobey
Rob Cross has now won eight of his last ten matches and has averaged 100 across his last five. He dispatched Merv King yesterday with a 4-1 win. King didn’t wake up until he was 0-3 down and his late rally was too little, too late, for our 4-2 correct score to come in. There is no doubt that Cross is playing himself very much into contention, but the hard work starts now. His record against Dobey is 7-4, 2-0 in 2022 and on TV 2-0.
Chris Dobey overcame a poor H2H record vs. Gary Anderson, beating the Ally Pally specialist 4-1. Anderson wasn’t great and Doby didn’t let him off the hook and he put in a good performance, averaging 95.3. He has won six of his last ten matches but lacks the consistency that Cross has been showing. His B game is just a bit weak to think it could carry him through a match like this. He needs his A game or hope that Cross has an off day.
Poor 4th Round Record
Dobey has a very unwanted 4th round record here. He has played three and lost all three 3-4. Cross has played three and won just the one. Dobey has always played well in his 4th rounds, but always just came up a little short.
He is up against a player whose seasonal average is not significantly higher, but Cross is just that bit better on his doubles, with a checkout rate of 41.6% compared to Dobey’s 36.5%. Not a huge difference, but it might just be the difference.
Dobey is a bit of a ‘nearly’ player. He hasn’t won as many titles or matches as his ability deserves and I wonder if the memory of three near misses will rear its head, should this turn out to be another close one.
Cross is the 1.55 favourite and Dobey 2.75. Cross looks a little short at those odds, but I’ll take a chance that we get another close one and Dobey’s torture continues.
Friday Night 2023 PDC World Championship tip: 0.5 point Rob Cross to win 4-3 @ 5.50 generally available
Michael van Gerwen vs. Dirk van Duijvenbode
Dirk was involved in an Ally Pally classic yesterday, beating Ross Smith 4-3 in a sudden death leg in the seventh set. He had survived five match darts from Smith, and it was the narrowest of narrow wins. He has had just over 24 hours to recover from that epic and I don’t think that will be enough. It is likely that he will have to play better than he did against Smith and to have to dig deep after such a long match might be asking too much.
MVG has averaged 101 and 107 in his first two matches. He was made to work for his 4-2 win over Suljovic after the Austrian rolled back the years to produce a good performance, but it still wasn’t enough.
MVG Purring
MVG has won nine of his last ten matches and hit seven ton plus averages. He is in top form. Dirk has won seven of his last ten matches with four ton plus averages. There is not a lot between them in terms of scoring power, just that MVG is a bit more consistent.
Their H2H record is 8-1 to MVG and there’s the rub. MVG knows he has the beating of Van Duijvenbode, and so does Dirk. The cloak of invincibility may have slipped from MVG’s shoulders in recent years, but less so amongst his Dutch rivals.
They still see him as a near mythical creature and are halfway to being beaten before a dart is thrown. It is interesting that two of Dirk’s worst H2H records are against MVG and Raymond van Barneveld, the two big beasts of Dutch darts.
H2H
MVG has won both their matches in 2022 and while there have been two matches that required a deciding leg, the others have been fairly comfortable for MVG. Van Gerwen has played ten last 16 matches here and won eight, four of them 4-1.
Dirk has played in two last 16 matches and won one against Glen Durrant 4-3, but lost 1-4 to Gerwyn Price last year. He just didn’t turn up that day and if his tank is empty after yesterday’s efforts, another 4-1 drubbing is a distinct possibility.
Friday Night 2023 PDC World Championship tip: 0.5 point Michael van Gerwen to win 4-1 @ 3.80 with SpreadEx
Luke Humphries vs. Stephen Bunting
Humphries is looking to reach his fourth World Championship quarter final and his 4th round record is 3-0, with wins of 4-2, 4-1 and 4-3. Stephen Bunting has played in three and won two, 4-2 and 4-3.
Both players are in good form with Humphries winning eight of his last ten and Bunting seven. Bunting brought his A game to the stage yesterday, beating Chisnall 4-2, averaging 102.2. Chizzy wasn’t exactly playing badly as he averaged 101.8.
Hard Work
Luke Humphries made hard work of beating Vincent van der Voort, getting over the line 4-3 in the end. There was too much head shaking for my liking and he doesn’t seem in the best of fettle. He has had a bad cold, but who hasn’t.
Their H2H record is 5-2 to Luke Humphries and he won their only match in 2022 7-0. His wins against Bunting have all been comfortable, including a 3-1 win here in the 2019 Championship (their only TV match). Buntings two wins have come in deciding legs.
Tricky Tie
This is a tricky one. I find Bunting hard to call and nearly always get him wrong. He has a lot of ability but is mentally fragile. Sometimes he just clicks and plays his A game and is untouchable. He was close to that yesterday, but can he do it again tonight? Humphries hasn’t looked comfortable in his first two matches. He has required a deciding set in his opening two matches and against players he should have swept aside.
Bunting has a better chance than the market is giving him. Humphries is the 1.48 favourite, Bunting 2.85. If he does win it, he is likely to make hard work of it. Humphries just hasn’t impressed me so far. He has not been close to his best but has still got over the line and he knows how to win on this stage. I’ll hedge my bets and go for a close match and one with a decent number of 180s. Both have been hitting plenty, Humphries at 0.32 per leg, Bunting 0.39. A long match would help.
